Brazil Budget Deficit Tops Forecasts

Brazil posted a nominal budget deficit of BRL 60.1 billion in April 2026, up from BRL 55.5 billion in the same month a year ago and above the expected BRL 50.7 billion shortfall. The central government gap rose to BRL 50.1 billion from BRL 44 billion in April 2025, and the state-owned companies' shortfall deficit increased to BRL 2.4 billion from BRL 1.7 billion a year ago. Meanwhile, the regional governments' shortfall shrank to BRL 7.6 billion from BRL 9.9 billion a year ago. The country's government debt as a share of the GDP rose to 80.4%, the highest since December 2021, up from March's 80% and 76% in April 2025, slightly surpassing market forecasts of 80.3%.

Brazil’s nominal budget deficit jumped to BRL 199.5 billion in March 2026, the largest since June 2020, from BRL 71.6 billion a year earlier, above market expectations of a BRL 148 billion gap. The central government gap widened to BRL 187 billion from BRL 69 billion in March 2025, and the regional governments' deficit climbed to BRL 11.3 billion from BRL 1.7 billion a year ago. At the same time, the state-owned companies' shortfall rose to BRL 1.3 billion, up from BRL 0.9 billion a year ago. The country's government debt as a share of the GDP increased to 80.1% from 79.2% the month before and surpassing market forecasts of 79.6%.

Brazil's nominal budget deficit widened to R$100.6 billion in February 2026 from R$97.2 billion. The consolidated public sector recorded a primary deficit of R$16.4 billion in February, compared to R$19.0 billion in February 2025. The Central Government posted a R$29.5 billion deficit while state-owned enterprises recorded a R$568 million deficit, offset by regional governments' R$13.7 billion surplus. Nominal interest on the consolidated public sector totaled R$84.2 billion in February 2026, up from R$78.3 billion in February 2025. This increase was driven by higher net indebtedness, the Selic rate, and inflation, more than offsetting two fewer business days and more favorable foreign exchange swap results. Over 12 months, the nominal deficit reached R$1,089.6 billion, representing 8.48% of GDP and remaining stable as a share of GDP compared to the prior month.