UK Inflation Rate Below Forecasts at 3.8%

UK consumer price inflation eased to 3.0% in January 2026, down from 3.4% in December and in line with market expectations. This marks the lowest annual inflation rate since March 2025, primarily driven by softer increases in transport and food prices. Transport costs rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slowing from 4.0% in December, as fuel prices fell and air fare inflation moderated. Meanwhile, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 3.6%, down from 4.5% the previous month. Inflation also eased in housing and utilities (4.5% vs. 4.9%) and recreation and culture (2.6% vs. 2.7%). However, price growth in restaurants and hotels accelerated to 4.1%, up from 3.8%. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile components such as food and energy, declined to 3.1% in January, its lowest level since August 2021, suggesting underlying price pressures are gradually moderating. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.5%, reversing a 0.4% increase recorded in December.

UK consumer price inflation rose to 3.4% in December 2025, up from November’s eight-month low of 3.2% and slightly above market expectations of 3.3%. This year-end acceleration, the first since July, could complicate the Bank of England’s efforts to guide inflation back toward its 2% target, though the rise is expected to be temporary thanks to government interventions. The increase was largely driven by higher prices for alcohol and tobacco, which jumped to 5.2% from 4.0% in November due to the timing of tobacco duty changes, and transport costs, which rose to 4.0% from 3.7% on the back of higher airfares. Additional upward pressure came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.5% vs. 4.2%). Services inflation, a key gauge of domestic price pressures for the BOE, edged up slightly to 4.5% from 4.4%, below expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like unprocessed food and energy, remained steady at 3.2%, marking its lowest level since December 2024.

The annual inflation rate in the UK slowed to 3.2% in November 2025, the lowest in eight months, compared to 3.6% in October and forecasts of 3.5%. The figure is also lower than the Bank of England's prediction of 3.4%. The largest downward contribution came from prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.2% vs 4.9%), particularly bread and cereals, where the prices of products such as cakes, biscuits and breakfast cereals fell this year. Prices also slowed for alcohol and tobacco (4% vs 5.9%), reaching the lowest since December 2022; transport (3.7% vs 3.8%); and housing and utilities (5.1% vs 5.2%), including actual rents for housing (3.8% vs 4.1%). Services inflation eased to 4.4% from 4.5%, below the central bank forecasts of 4.5%. In addition, cost fell for clothing and footwear (-0.6% vs 0.3%), mostly women's clothing. Prices for recreation and culture rose 2.9%, the same as in October. Compared to the previous month, the CPI fell 0.2%, the biggest decline since July 2024.