Gilt Yields Surge Amid Starmer’s Leadership Crisis

UK 10-year gilt yields climbed above 5.1%, reaching their highest point since July 2008, as political instability in the UK deepens. Over 70 Labour MPs have urged Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign following the party’s poor performance in last week’s local elections, with investors worrying that a leadership change could lead to higher fiscal spending in an effort to regain voter support. Meanwhile, concerns persist over the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, with Brent crude oil prices rising above $105 a barrel after US President Trump dismissed Iran’s latest response to peace proposals as unacceptable. Trump, addressing reporters, labeled Iran’s reply a “piece of garbage” and admitted he “didn’t even finish reading it.” The uncertainty has prompted investors to increase bets on further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, with markets now pricing in nearly three additional increases before year-end.

UK 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to 5.11%, the highest since July 2008. Over the past 4 weeks, United Kingdom 10Y Bond Yield gained 27.85 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 41.95 basis points.

UK 10-year gilt yields jumped to 5% as growing political uncertainty and the stalemate between the US and Iran over a peace deal drove oil prices higher, bringing inflation concerns to the forefront. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer sought to reassure critics of his leadership following Labour’s poor performance in local council elections, though his speech lacked new policy proposals. Attention has now shifted to whether a leadership challenge will emerge in the coming days, with Starmer stating he will fight any such attempt and will not step down. Meanwhile, brent crude surpassed $105 per barrel after President Trump dismissed Iran’s latest peace proposal as “totally unacceptable.” The fate of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that Iran had offered to dilute some enriched uranium and transfer the remainder to a third country, a claim Iran denied. Markets are pricing in at least two Bank of England rate hikes by December.