UK 10-Year Bond Yield Falls

UK 10-year gilt yields declined to 4.86%, though they remain near multi-year highs, as investors weighed the latest Middle East developments and UK inflation data for their potential impact on the Bank of England’s policy direction. US President Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, maintaining the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz but signaling potential flexibility. Pakistan, mediating talks, urged restraint, while Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported signs of possible US concessions. On the economic front, UK headline inflation for March rose to 3.3% from 3.0% in February, primarily due to higher petrol prices influenced by the Iran conflict. Core inflation softened to 3.1% from 3.2%, slightly below expectations, while services inflation increased to 4.5% from 4.3%. Market participants have modestly scaled back their expectations for Bank of England rate hikes this year, now pricing in around 39 basis points of increases, still implying two hikes.

UK 10-year gilt yields approached 4.85% as investors processed Olly Robbins’ testimony before the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee and monitored US-Iran negotiations ahead of President Trump’s unmovable Wednesday deadline. Robbins, dismissed by PM Keir Starmer over the Peter Mandelson ambassador scandal, testified that he faced pressure to approve Mandelson’s appointment but had no direct contact with No. 10 during the vetting process. Adding to the uncertainty, Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB denied reports that an Iranian delegation had traveled to Pakistan for talks with the US, contradicting earlier claims. Meanwhile, President Trump accused Iran of "numerous" ceasefire violations, further straining tensions. On the economic front, the latest UK jobs data revealed slowing wage growth, an unexpected drop in unemployment, and a decline in vacancies, though its market impact was limited, as the figures predate the outbreak of war and fail to reflect current labor market conditions.

UK 10-year gilt yields neared 2008 highs as former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testified before the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee regarding the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. Robbins, who was dismissed for allegedly failing to inform Prime Minister Keir Starmer that Mandelson had not passed his security vetting, could deliver career-ending revelations if he proves Starmer was aware of the issue. Meanwhile, investors also focused on escalating Middle East tensions, with a US-Iran ceasefire set to expire Wednesday evening and peace talks scheduled in Pakistan. On the economic front, UK unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.9% in the three months to February 2026, while wage growth slowed slightly less than expected. UK payrolls dropped by 11,000 in March, the largest decline since November 2025, highlighting ongoing economic pressures tied to the Middle East conflict.