Markets Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Currency 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.36
Stock Market (points) 10373.20 10318 9996 9815 9637
Government Bond 10Y (%) 4.94 4.86 4.73 4.67 4.6

Overview Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.60 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.10 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.00 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.5
Inflation Rate (%) 2.80 3.4 3.8 3.4 3.2
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.70 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.75 4 4.25 4.25
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -9658.00 -3600 -3500 -3100 -2700
Current Account (GBP Million) -18392.00 -17000 -15000 -16000 -16000
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.90 53.4 50.9 50.7 51
Services PMI (points) 49.30 51.9 51 51.3 52.5
Business Confidence (points) -65.00 -23 -20 -18 -18
Consumer Confidence (points) -23.00 -29 -32 -30 -27
Retail Sales MoM (%) -1.30 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.40 -2.4
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 94.30 94.9
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.30 -3.6

GDP Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.60 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.10 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 710896.00 715473 715928 716343 722270
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 766587.00 761728 775393 777319 778852
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 137657.00 139751 140730 140464 139860
GDP from Utilities (GBP Million) 12317.00 11937 11946 12417 12514
Monthly GDP MoM (%) 0.30 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Monthly GDP YoY (%) 1.20 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
GDP from Public Administration (GBP Million) 33372.00 33537 33685 33798 33906
GDP from Construction (GBP Million) 36894.00 38275 38377 37276 37484
GDP from Agriculture (GBP Million) 4378.00 4691 4669 4622 4448
GDP from Transport (GBP Million) 23376.00 22971 23364 23547 23750
GDP from Mining (GBP Million) 6518.00 6994 6875 6922 6622
GDP from Services (GBP Million) 518664.00 520406 521431 521962 526963
GDP from Manufacturing (GBP Million) 56807.00 57542 56761 57173 57716
GDP (USD Billion) 3643.83 3669
GDP per Capita (USD) 47265.00 47596
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 52517.98 52886
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 1.40 0.7

Labour Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.00 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.5
Employed Persons (Thousand) 34392.00 34550 34400 34450 34450
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1672.40 1710 1700 1740 1740
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 26.50 -5 20 3 -2
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.10 78.8 78.9 78.7 78.7
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 14.70 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.2
Labour Costs (points) 112.50 114 115 116 115
Productivity (points) 99.99 99.5 99.5 100 100
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 705.00 680 700 710 710
Wages (GBP/Week) 749.00 749 756 755 768
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 819.00 811 813 815 815
Wage Growth (%) 4.10 3.3 3 2.7 2.5
Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (%) 3.40 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) -99.96 20 30 35 40
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 31.70 31.9 32 32.2 32.2
Employment Change (Thousand) 148.00 15 25 30 35
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 12.71 12.71
Population (Million) 69.49 69.65

Prices Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Inflation Rate (%) 2.80 3.4 3.8 3.4 3.2
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.70 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 142.10 144 145 145 146
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.50 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4
Core Consumer Prices (points) 138.20 139 140 141 142
GDP Deflator (points) 110.00 111 112 113 114
Producer Prices Change (%) 4.00 3.7 4.4 4.1 3.9
Food Inflation (%) 3.00 4.4 4.9 5 4.7
PPI Input YoY (%) 7.70 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 2.40 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1
PPI Input (%) 2.40 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 1.40 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.70 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
Core Producer Prices MoM (%) 0.70 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
CPI Transportation (points) 145.80 146 146 147 147
Producer Prices (points) 147.80 148 151 150 151
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 149.80 153 152 153 155
Core Producer Prices (points) 142.90 145 146 145 145

Money Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.75 4 4.25 4.25
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 3205902.00 3220000 3210000 3200000 3190000
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2874192.00 2826603 2870736 2914431 2920179
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 3.50 3.5 3.75 4 4
Lending Rate (%) 4.00 4 4.25 4.5 4.5
Private Debt to GDP (%) 69.70 71

Trade Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -9658.00 -3600 -3500 -3100 -2700
Current Account (GBP Million) -18392.00 -17000 -15000 -16000 -16000
Exports (GBP Million) 79126.00 78200 79500 81200 83500
Imports (GBP Million) 88784.00 81800 83000 84300 86200
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 649.00 520 570 640 680
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (GBP Million) -15195.00 -9300 -8800 -8500 -8200
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -27218.00 -19800 -18500 -18200 -17500
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.40 -2.4

Government Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -24343.00 -12500 -13200 -15800 -11400
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 94.30 94.9
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.30 -3.6
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 44.60 44.9

Business Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.90 53.4 50.9 50.7 51
Services PMI (points) 49.30 51.9 51 51.3 52.5
Business Confidence (points) -65.00 -23 -20 -18 -18
Industrial Production (%) 0.00 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.20 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Manufacturing Production (%) 1.20 0 0.3 0.5 1
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -41.00 -46 -37 -30 -17
Bankruptcies (Companies) 2085.00 2080 2100 2050 2050
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 169181.00 145000 146000 148000 148000
Car Registrations (Units) 160662.00 196673 316646 149174 390143
Car Production (Units) 56135.00 69006 51243 53268 70453
New Passenger Car Registrations YoY (%) 7.10 2.8 1.2 2 2.5
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (%) 3.40 1.8 1.4 2 1.7
Private Investment (%) 0.70 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.60 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3
Composite PMI (points) 49.70 52.1 51.2 51.5 52.3

Consumer Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Consumer Confidence (points) -23.00 -29 -32 -30 -27
Retail Sales MoM (%) -1.30 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 0.00 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 419202.00 422388 422474 422574 425909
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 442628.00 448557 443331 448825 449710
Personal Savings (%) 9.90 9.8 9.9 9.5 9.4
Net Lending to Individuals MoM (GBP Million) 6227.00 5500 4800 4400 5800
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 2.14 2.51 2.15 1.79 1.79
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -46.00 -36 -12 -5 2
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 1859.00 1522 1525 1695 1934

Housing Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Housing Starts (units) 37300.00 30050 30684 38419 38792
Construction Output (%) -0.30 0.5 1.2 3 4
Housing Index (points) 515.30 520 524 525 530
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 65.94 64.4 67 64.8 72
RICS House Price Balance (%) -34.00 -12 -5 -2 2
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (%) -0.60 0.2 0.1 -0.4 0.5
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (%) 1.70 2.2 2.5 2.7 3
House Price Index YoY (%) 0.50 1.5 2 2.2 2.5
Construction Orders (%) -11.90 1.8 2.5 2 2
Mortgage Rate (%) 6.60 6.6 6.85 7.1 7.1
Construction PMI (points) 38.20 45 42 44 46
Home Loans (GBP Million) 4370.00 5100 4900 4700 5400
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 554.60 554 556 555 570