South Africa's one-year-ahead inflation expectations among households eased to 4% in Q3 2026 from 4.2% in the previous period, when the oil shock caused by the Middle East conflict pushed expectations higher. Average inflation expectations two years ahead, a measure the central bank closely tracks in setting interest rates, also edged down to 3.8% from 3.9% previously. The South African Reserve Bank seeks to anchor inflation expectations around its 3% inflation goal. Since the last survey, inflation rose to a peak of 5% in June before moderating to 4.3% in July. source: Bureau for Economic Research (BER)

Inflation Expectations in South Africa decreased to 4 percent in the third quarter of 2026 from 4.20 percent in the second quarter of 2026. Inflation Expectations in South Africa averaged 5.73 percent from 2000 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 8.72 percent in the third quarter of 2008 and a record low of 3.60 percent in the first quarter of 2026. This page provides - South Africa Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. South Africa Inflation Expectations - values, historical data and charts - was last updated on September of 2026.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-06-30 08:15 AM
Inflation Expectations
Q2 4.2% 3.6% 3.8%
2026-09-16 07:05 AM
Inflation Expectations
Q3 4% 4.2% 4.4%
2026-12-11 09:30 AM
Inflation Expectations
Q4 4%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Consumer Price Index CPI 107.70 107.50 points Jul 2026
Core Consumer Prices 106.90 106.40 points Jul 2026
Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.20 4.10 percent Jul 2026
Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.50 0.60 percent Jul 2026
CPI Housing Utilities 109.10 106.80 points Jul 2026
CPI Transportation 109.70 112.70 points Jul 2026
Export Prices 207.40 201.90 points Jun 2026
Food Inflation 0.90 1.60 percent Jul 2026
Import Prices 184.00 164.30 points Jun 2026
Inflation Expectations 4.00 4.20 percent Sep 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 4.30 5.00 percent Jul 2026
Inflation Rate MoM 0.20 0.70 percent Jul 2026
PPI MoM -1.00 -0.10 percent Jul 2026
Producer Prices 109.20 110.30 points Jul 2026
PPI YoY 5.70 7.50 percent Jul 2026


South Africa Inflation Expectations
In South Africa, inflation expectations refer to one year ahead expected inflation rate. The expectations are based on the survey of four social groups namely analysts, business people, senior representatives of trade unions and households.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
4.00 4.20 8.72 3.60 2000 - 2026 percent Quarterly
NSA

News Stream
South Africa Inflation Expectations Soften to 4% in Q3
South Africa's one-year-ahead inflation expectations among households eased to 4% in Q3 2026 from 4.2% in the previous period, when the oil shock caused by the Middle East conflict pushed expectations higher. Average inflation expectations two years ahead, a measure the central bank closely tracks in setting interest rates, also edged down to 3.8% from 3.9% previously. The South African Reserve Bank seeks to anchor inflation expectations around its 3% inflation goal. Since the last survey, inflation rose to a peak of 5% in June before moderating to 4.3% in July.
2026-09-16
South Africa 1-Year Inflation Outlook Jumps in Q2
South Africa's one-year-ahead inflation expectations among households surged to 4.2% in Q2 2026 from an all-time low of 3.6% in the previous period. Average inflation expectations two years ahead, a measure the central bank closely tracks in setting interest rates, also inched up to 3.9% from 3.6% previously. The survey, conducted between May 18 and June 4, preceded the signing of the agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has since eased global oil prices and reduced domestic fuel costs. Between the two survey periods, South Africa's annual inflation climbed to 4.5% from 3%, driven by a spike in gasoline prices to record levels. Among respondents, analysts see the fastest return to the central bank’s 3% target, with inflation easing to 3.5% by 2028. Businesses and unions are more cautious, expecting it at 4% and 4.4%, respectively.
2026-06-30