The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa climbed by 2.4% month-on-month in March 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in the previous month. The latest figure marked the strongest expansion since May 2021, as six of the seven" available components contributed positively, led by an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and a widening of the interest rate spread. Meanwhile, the main negative contributions came from a deterioration in the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries. The composite coincident indicator declined by 0.1% in February 2026, driven by decrease in the utilization of production capacity in the manufacturing sector and industrial production index. In contrast, the lagging indicator edged up by 0.6% in February. source: South African Reserve Bank

Leading Economic Index South Africa increased 2.40 percent in March of 2026 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in South Africa averaged 0.20 percent from 1960 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 4.60 percent in January of 1980 and a record low of -5.90 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - South Africa Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2026.

Leading Economic Index South Africa increased 2.40 percent in March of 2026 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in South Africa is expected to be 1.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM is projected to trend around 1.80 percent in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-04-28 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Feb 0.5% 0.6% 1.0%
2026-05-26 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Mar 2.4% 0.6% -0.2%
2026-06-23 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Apr 2.4%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Bankruptcies 233.00 146.00 Companies Apr 2026
Business Confidence 39.00 47.00 points Jun 2026
Capacity Utilization 76.90 77.80 percent Dec 2025
Car Registrations 36871.00 34414.00 Units May 2026
Changes in Inventories -6246.00 17267.00 ZAR Million Dec 2025
SACCI Business Confidence 131.30 134.60 points Mar 2026
Composite Leading Indicator 100.59 100.62 points Apr 2026
Corruption Index 41.00 41.00 Points Dec 2025
Corruption Rank 81.00 82.00 Dec 2025
Electricity Production 17106.00 18054.00 Gigawatt-hour Apr 2026
Gold Production YoY 17.10 12.80 percent Mar 2026
Manufacturing Production YoY 0.90 -2.30 percent Mar 2026
Manufacturing Production MoM 0.80 -1.80 percent Mar 2026
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM 2.40 0.60 percent Mar 2026
Mining Production YoY 2.50 9.70 percent Mar 2026
Total New Vehicle Sales 51070.00 47890.00 Units May 2026


South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.40 0.60 4.60 -5.90 1960 - 2026 percent Monthly
SA

News Stream
South Africa Business Cycle Index Rises Most in Nearly 5 Years
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa climbed by 2.4% month-on-month in March 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in the previous month. The latest figure marked the strongest expansion since May 2021, as six of the seven" available components contributed positively, led by an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and a widening of the interest rate spread. Meanwhile, the main negative contributions came from a deterioration in the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries. The composite coincident indicator declined by 0.1% in February 2026, driven by decrease in the utilization of production capacity in the manufacturing sector and industrial production index. In contrast, the lagging indicator edged up by 0.6% in February.
2026-05-26
South Africa Leading Index Ease Slightly
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa grew 0.5% month-over-month in February 2026, easing from an upwardly revised 0.6% in the previous month. Growth in seven of the ten available component series outweighed declines in the remaining three. The strongest positive contributions came from a rise in the number of residential building plans approved and an increase in the country’s US-dollar denominated export commodity price index. However, these gains were partly offset by a decline in the volume of domestic manufacturing orders and a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of job advertisements. At the same time, the composite coincident business cycle indicator increased by 0.3% in January 2026, supported by higher industrial production and a rise in the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. In contrast, the composite lagging business cycle indicator fell by 0.3% in January.
2026-04-28
South Africa Leading Index Rebounds
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January 2026, rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.4% fall in December. Growth in five of the indicator’s ten available components outweighed declines in the remaining five, with the largest positive contributors coming from the country’s US-dollar export commodity price index and a rebound in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index. Conversely, the largest drags came from a slowdown in the six-month growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales and a decline in domestic manufacturing orders. Meanwhile, the composite coincident business cycle indicator fell 0.2% in December 2025, reflecting weaker industrial production and a drop in the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. The composite lagging indicator edged up 0.1% in December.
2026-03-24