The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa declined by 1.8% month-on-month in April 2026, slipping from a downwardly revised 1.5% increase in the previous month. The latest reading marked the first month of contraction since September last year, driven largely by a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved. Overall, 8 out of the 10 available component time series declined and outweighed increases in the volume of domestic orders received in the manufacturing sector and the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries. The composite coincident business cycle indicator remained unchanged in March 2026, due to an increase in the real value of wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, which was partially offset by a decrease in the industrial production index. source: South African Reserve Bank

Leading Economic Index South Africa decreased 1.80 percent in April of 2026 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in South Africa averaged 0.20 percent from 1960 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 4.60 percent in January of 1980 and a record low of -5.90 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - South Africa Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2026.

Leading Economic Index South Africa decreased 1.80 percent in April of 2026 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in South Africa is expected to be 1.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM is projected to trend around 1.80 percent in 2027 and 1.50 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-05-26 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Mar 2.4% 0.6% -0.2%
2026-06-23 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Apr -1.8% 1.5% 1.7%
2026-07-28 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
May -1.8% 0.5%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Bankruptcies 225.00 233.00 Companies May 2026
Business Confidence 39.00 47.00 points Jun 2026
Capacity Utilization 76.10 77.00 percent Mar 2026
Car Registrations 38393.00 36871.00 Units Jun 2026
Changes in Inventories -22424.00 -6246.00 ZAR Million Mar 2026
SACCI Business Confidence 124.10 123.60 points May 2026
Composite Leading Indicator 100.36 100.48 points Jun 2026
Corruption Index 41.00 41.00 Points Dec 2025
Corruption Rank 81.00 82.00 Dec 2025
Electricity Production 18575.00 17144.00 Gigawatt-hour May 2026
Gold Production YoY -4.30 -0.40 percent May 2026
Manufacturing Production YoY -4.30 -2.90 percent May 2026
Manufacturing Production MoM 1.10 -2.60 percent May 2026
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM -1.80 1.50 percent Apr 2026
Mining Production YoY -5.40 8.00 percent May 2026
Total New Vehicle Sales 54480.00 50990.00 Units Jun 2026


South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-1.80 1.50 4.60 -5.90 1960 - 2026 percent Monthly
SA

News Stream
South Africa Business Cycle Index Falls for 1st Time in 7 Months
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa declined by 1.8% month-on-month in April 2026, slipping from a downwardly revised 1.5% increase in the previous month. The latest reading marked the first month of contraction since September last year, driven largely by a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved. Overall, 8 out of the 10 available component time series declined and outweighed increases in the volume of domestic orders received in the manufacturing sector and the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries. The composite coincident business cycle indicator remained unchanged in March 2026, due to an increase in the real value of wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, which was partially offset by a decrease in the industrial production index.
2026-06-23
South Africa Business Cycle Index Rises Most in Nearly 5 Years
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa climbed by 2.4% month-on-month in March 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in the previous month. The latest figure marked the strongest expansion since May 2021, as six of the seven" available components contributed positively, led by an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and a widening of the interest rate spread. Meanwhile, the main negative contributions came from a deterioration in the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries. The composite coincident indicator declined by 0.1% in February 2026, driven by decrease in the utilization of production capacity in the manufacturing sector and industrial production index. In contrast, the lagging indicator edged up by 0.6% in February.
2026-05-26
South Africa Leading Index Ease Slightly
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa grew 0.5% month-over-month in February 2026, easing from an upwardly revised 0.6% in the previous month. Growth in seven of the ten available component series outweighed declines in the remaining three. The strongest positive contributions came from a rise in the number of residential building plans approved and an increase in the country’s US-dollar denominated export commodity price index. However, these gains were partly offset by a decline in the volume of domestic manufacturing orders and a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of job advertisements. At the same time, the composite coincident business cycle indicator increased by 0.3% in January 2026, supported by higher industrial production and a rise in the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. In contrast, the composite lagging business cycle indicator fell by 0.3% in January.
2026-04-28