The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa fell by 2.3% from a month earlier in June of 2021, the most since April of 2020, following a 2.3% rise in May. All nine of the available component time series decreased, with the number of residential building plans approved and in the US dollar-denominated South African export commodity price index contributing the most to the overall decline. source: South African Reserve Bank

Leading Economic Index in South Africa averaged 0.21 percent from 1960 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 4.80 percent in June of 2020 and a record low of -6.80 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - South Africa Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2021.

Leading Economic Index in South Africa is expected to be 0.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM is projected to trend around 2.40 percent in 2022 and 2.80 percent in 2023, according to our econometric models.

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South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-2.30 2.30 4.80 -6.80 1960 - 2021 percent Monthly
SA


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2021-05-25 07:00 AM Mar 1.7% 2.8% 1.8%
2021-06-22 07:00 AM Apr 3.7% 2.3% 2.3%
2021-07-20 07:00 AM May 2.3% 3.7% 3.4%
2021-08-24 07:00 AM Jun -2.3% 2.3% 1.8%
2021-09-21 07:00 AM Jul -2.3% -6%
2021-10-26 07:00 AM Aug
2021-11-23 07:00 AM Sep
2021-12-15 07:00 AM Oct


News Stream
South Africa Leading Index Falls the Most in Over a Year
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa fell by 2.3% from a month earlier in June of 2021, the most since April of 2020, following a 2.3% rise in May. All nine of the available component time series decreased, with the number of residential building plans approved and in the US dollar-denominated South African export commodity price index contributing the most to the overall decline.
2021-08-24
South Africa Leading Index Rises 2.3% in May
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa rose by 2.3% from a month earlier in May of 2021, easing from April's 8-month high of 3.7%. The largest contributors to the increase in the composite leading business cycle indicator in May 2021 were increases in the average hours worked per factory worker and the volume of orders in manufacturing. The largest detractors were decelerations in the percentage change over 12 months in the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s main trading-partner countries and in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the number of new passenger vehicles sold.
2021-07-20
South Africa Leading Business Index Rises the Most in 8 Months
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa rose by 3.7% from a month earlier in April of 2021, the most since last August, following an upwardly revised 2.2% increase in the prior month. The improvement reflects, among other factors, the impact of the low base established a year earlier during the initial severe COVID-19 lockdown restrictions. Eight of the ten available component time series increased while the remaining two component time series went down. The largest positive contributors were an acceleration in the 12-month rate of increase in the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries and an improvement in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index. The detractors were a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and a narrowing in the interest rate spread.
2021-06-22
South Africa Leading Index Rises 1.7% MoM in March
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa rose by 1.7% from a month earlier in March of 2021, following an upwardly revised 2.8% increase in the prior month, which was the strongest since last October. Increases in six of the nine available component time series outweighed decreases in the remaining three components. The largest positive contributors were an acceleration in the 12-month percentage change of the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries and an increase in the US dollar-denominated export commodity price index. The main detractors were the decrease in the number of residential building plans approved and a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of job advertisement space.
2021-05-25

South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010.