The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa dropped by 1.4% month-over-month in June 2026, accelerating from a 0.3% decrease in the previous month. This marked the third consecutive month of decline, primarily driven by lower US dollar-denominated prices for South Africa’s main export commodities and a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 money supply. Five of the seven available component series decreased, outweighing gains in residential building plans approved and the six-month smoothed growth rate in job advertisements. Other negative contributors included fewer new passenger vehicle sales, a narrower interest rate spread between 10-year government bonds and 91-day Treasury bills, and weaker leading indicators for South Africa’s major trading partners. Meanwhile, the coincident business cycle indicator fell 0.2% in May, while the lagging indicator increased 0.9%. source: South African Reserve Bank

Leading Economic Index South Africa decreased 1.40 percent in June of 2026 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in South Africa averaged 0.19 percent from 1960 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 4.60 percent in January of 1980 and a record low of -5.90 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - South Africa Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on August of 2026.

Leading Economic Index South Africa decreased 1.40 percent in June of 2026 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in South Africa is expected to be 1.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM is projected to trend around 1.80 percent in 2027 and 1.50 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-07-28 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
May -0.3% -2.0% 0.5%
2026-08-25 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Jun -1.4% -0.3% -0.5%
2026-09-22 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Jul -1.4% 0.7%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Bankruptcies 245.00 225.00 Companies Jun 2026
Business Confidence 39.00 47.00 points Jun 2026
Capacity Utilization 76.10 77.00 percent Mar 2026
Car Registrations 40912.00 38393.00 Units Jul 2026
Changes in Inventories -22424.00 -6246.00 ZAR Million Mar 2026
SACCI Business Confidence 125.40 123.50 points Jul 2026
Composite Leading Indicator 100.36 100.48 points Jun 2026
Corruption Index 41.00 41.00 Points Dec 2025
Corruption Rank 81.00 82.00 Dec 2025
Electricity Production 18904.00 18642.00 Gigawatt-hour Jun 2026
Gold Production YoY 6.20 -4.40 percent Jun 2026
Manufacturing Production YoY -1.70 -4.30 percent Jun 2026
Manufacturing Production MoM 0.90 1.10 percent Jun 2026
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM -1.40 -0.30 percent Jun 2026
Mining Production YoY -4.00 -5.10 percent Jun 2026
Total New Vehicle Sales 57708.00 54410.00 Units Jul 2026


South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-1.40 -0.30 4.60 -5.90 1960 - 2026 percent Monthly
SA

News Stream
South Africa Leading Index Falls for 3rd Month
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa dropped by 1.4% month-over-month in June 2026, accelerating from a 0.3% decrease in the previous month. This marked the third consecutive month of decline, primarily driven by lower US dollar-denominated prices for South Africa’s main export commodities and a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 money supply. Five of the seven available component series decreased, outweighing gains in residential building plans approved and the six-month smoothed growth rate in job advertisements. Other negative contributors included fewer new passenger vehicle sales, a narrower interest rate spread between 10-year government bonds and 91-day Treasury bills, and weaker leading indicators for South Africa’s major trading partners. Meanwhile, the coincident business cycle indicator fell 0.2% in May, while the lagging indicator increased 0.9%.
2026-08-25
South Africa Leading Index Falls 0.3% MoM
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa fell by 0.3% month-over-month in May 2026, easing from an upwardly revised 2.0% decline in the previous month. This marked the second consecutive monthly contraction, with weakness in five of the ten available component time series, while the other five provided support. The largest negative contributors included weaker business confidence, fewer building plans approved for flats, townhouses and larger houses, and a decline in the commodity price index for South Africa’s main export products. Additional pressure came from shorter average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing and a narrower interest rate spread between 10-year government bonds and 91-day Treasury bills. Meanwhile, support came from gains in real M1 money supply growth, new passenger vehicle sales, domestic manufacturing orders, job advertisements, and the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading partners.
2026-07-28
South Africa Business Cycle Index Falls for 1st Time in 7 Months
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa declined by 1.8% month-on-month in April 2026, slipping from a downwardly revised 1.5% increase in the previous month. The latest reading marked the first month of contraction since September last year, driven largely by a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved. Overall, 8 out of the 10 available component time series declined and outweighed increases in the volume of domestic orders received in the manufacturing sector and the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries. The composite coincident business cycle indicator remained unchanged in March 2026, due to an increase in the real value of wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, which was partially offset by a decrease in the industrial production index.
2026-06-23