The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January 2026, rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.4% fall in December. Growth in five of the indicator’s ten available components outweighed declines in the remaining five, with the largest positive contributors coming from the country’s US-dollar export commodity price index and a rebound in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index. Conversely, the largest drags came from a slowdown in the six-month growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales and a decline in domestic manufacturing orders. Meanwhile, the composite coincident business cycle indicator fell 0.2% in December 2025, reflecting weaker industrial production and a drop in the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. The composite lagging indicator edged up 0.1% in December. source: South African Reserve Bank

Leading Economic Index South Africa increased 0.40 percent in January of 2026 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in South Africa averaged 0.20 percent from 1960 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 4.60 percent in January of 1980 and a record low of -5.90 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - South Africa Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on April of 2026.

Leading Economic Index South Africa increased 0.40 percent in January of 2026 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in South Africa is expected to be 1.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM is projected to trend around 1.80 percent in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-02-24 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Dec -1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
2026-03-24 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Jan 0.4% -0.4% 0.2%
2026-04-28 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Feb 0.4%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Bankruptcies 135.00 96.00 Companies Feb 2026
Business Confidence 47.00 44.00 points Mar 2026
Capacity Utilization 76.90 77.80 percent Dec 2025
Car Registrations 37576.00 37190.00 Units Feb 2026
Changes in Inventories -6246.00 17267.00 ZAR Million Dec 2025
SACCI Business Confidence 131.40 133.20 points Jan 2026
Composite Leading Indicator 101.01 100.96 points Feb 2026
Corruption Index 41.00 41.00 Points Dec 2025
Corruption Rank 81.00 82.00 Dec 2025
Electricity Production 18029.00 17488.00 Gigawatt-hour Jan 2026
Gold Production YoY 0.70 2.00 percent Jan 2026
Manufacturing Production YoY -0.70 -1.50 percent Jan 2026
Manufacturing Production MoM 1.50 -1.30 percent Jan 2026
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM 0.40 -0.40 percent Jan 2026
Mining Production YoY 4.60 2.80 percent Jan 2026
Total New Vehicle Sales 58060.00 53380.00 Units Mar 2026


South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.40 -0.40 4.60 -5.90 1960 - 2026 percent Monthly
SA

News Stream
South Africa Leading Index Rebounds
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January 2026, rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.4% fall in December. Growth in five of the indicator’s ten available components outweighed declines in the remaining five, with the largest positive contributors coming from the country’s US-dollar export commodity price index and a rebound in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index. Conversely, the largest drags came from a slowdown in the six-month growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales and a decline in domestic manufacturing orders. Meanwhile, the composite coincident business cycle indicator fell 0.2% in December 2025, reflecting weaker industrial production and a drop in the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. The composite lagging indicator edged up 0.1% in December.
2026-03-24
South Africa Leading Index Drops in December
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa decreased by 1% month-on-month in December 2025, reversing a 1.4% increase in the previous month. This marked the first decline since September, as decreases in five of the seven available component time series outweighed increases in South Africa’s US-dollar denominated export commodity price index and an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the number of new passenger vehicles sold. The main negative contributors were a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved. Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator fell by 0.2% in December, slipping from a 0.3% rise in the prior period, due to decreases in the industrial production index and the utilisation of production capacity in the manufacturing sector. The lagging indicator declined by 0.4% in the same month.
2026-02-24
South Africa Leading Index Rises for 2nd Month
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa rose by 1.4% month-on-month in November 2025, accelerating from a 0.4% increase in the previous month. This marked the second consecutive monthly gain, as increases in eight of the ten available component time series outweighed decreases in the other two. The largest positive contributors were accelerations in the six-month smoothed growth rates of the real M1 money supply and job advertisement space. In contrast, the main negative contributors were a narrowing interest rate spread and a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the number of new passenger vehicles sold. Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator grew by 0.3% in October, following a 0.1% rise in the prior period, driven by increases in the industrial production index and the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. The lagging indicator declined by 0.4% in the same month.
2026-01-27