The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa rose by 1.4% month-on-month in November 2025, accelerating from a 0.4% increase in the previous month. This marked the second consecutive monthly gain, as increases in eight of the ten available component time series outweighed decreases in the other two. The largest positive contributors were accelerations in the six-month smoothed growth rates of the real M1 money supply and job advertisement space. In contrast, the main negative contributors were a narrowing interest rate spread and a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the number of new passenger vehicles sold. Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator grew by 0.3% in October, following a 0.1% rise in the prior period, driven by increases in the industrial production index and the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. The lagging indicator declined by 0.4% in the same month. source: South African Reserve Bank

Leading Economic Index South Africa increased 1.40 percent in November of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in South Africa averaged 0.20 percent from 1960 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 4.60 percent in January of 1980 and a record low of -5.90 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - South Africa Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2026.

Leading Economic Index South Africa increased 1.40 percent in November of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in South Africa is expected to be 1.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM is projected to trend around 1.80 percent in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2025-12-17 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Oct 0.4% -1.2% -0.6%
2026-01-27 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Nov 1.4% 0.4% -0.3%
2026-02-24 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Dec 1.4% 0.8%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Bankruptcies 100.00 126.00 Companies Dec 2025
Business Confidence 44.00 39.00 points Dec 2025
Capacity Utilization 77.80 78.30 percent Sep 2025
Car Registrations 37190.00 35579.00 Units Jan 2026
Changes in Inventories 25742.00 18711.00 ZAR Million Sep 2025
SACCI Business Confidence 131.40 133.20 points Jan 2026
Composite Leading Indicator 101.22 101.11 points Jan 2026
Corruption Index 41.00 41.00 Points Dec 2025
Corruption Rank 81.00 82.00 Dec 2025
Electricity Production 17477.00 18325.00 Gigawatt-hour Dec 2025
Gold Production YoY 1.10 -6.00 percent Dec 2025
Manufacturing Production YoY -1.40 -2.00 percent Dec 2025
Manufacturing Production MoM -1.20 -2.10 percent Dec 2025
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM 1.40 0.40 percent Nov 2025
Mining Production YoY 2.50 -2.40 percent Dec 2025
Total New Vehicle Sales 50070.00 48980.00 Units Jan 2026


South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.40 0.40 4.60 -5.90 1960 - 2025 percent Monthly
SA

News Stream
South Africa Leading Index Rises for 2nd Month
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa rose by 1.4% month-on-month in November 2025, accelerating from a 0.4% increase in the previous month. This marked the second consecutive monthly gain, as increases in eight of the ten available component time series outweighed decreases in the other two. The largest positive contributors were accelerations in the six-month smoothed growth rates of the real M1 money supply and job advertisement space. In contrast, the main negative contributors were a narrowing interest rate spread and a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the number of new passenger vehicles sold. Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator grew by 0.3% in October, following a 0.1% rise in the prior period, driven by increases in the industrial production index and the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. The lagging indicator declined by 0.4% in the same month.
2026-01-27
South Africa Leading Index Recovers in October
The composite leading business cycle indicator in Africa rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October 2025, rebounding from a 1.2% fall in September, as increases in six of the ten available component time series outweighed the decreases in the remaining four. The largest positive contributions came from an increase in South Africa’s US-dollar-denominated export commodity price index and the improvement in the RMB/BER business confidence index. In contrast, the main negative contributors were a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 money supply and a narrowing of the interest rate spread. Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator edged up 0.1% in September, unchanged from the previous month, supported by gains in the industrial production index and employment in the formal non-agricultural sector. At the same time, the lagging indicator increased 0.8% in September.
2025-12-17
South Africa Leading Index Drops in September
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa fell by 1.2% month-on-month in September 2025, reversing a 1.6% rise in August. This was the first decline since May and the steepest since December 2024, as decreases in four of the seven available component time series outweighed increases in the remaining three. The largest negative contributions came from a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved and a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales. In contrast, the main positive contributors were an increase in South Africa’s US-dollar-denominated export commodity price index and an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in real M1 money supply. Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator rose by 0.1% in August, helped by gains in the industrial production index and the real value of wholesale, retail and motor trade sales. The lagging indicator dropped by 0.9% in August.
2025-11-25