The benchmark interest rate in South Africa was last recorded at 6.50 percent. Interest Rate in South Africa averaged 12.47 percent from 1998 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.99 percent in June of 1998 and a record low of 5 percent in July of 2012.

Interest Rate in South Africa is expected to be 6.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in South Africa to stand at 6.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Interest Rate is projected to trend around 6.75 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

South Africa Interest Rate
Forecast Data Chart
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-01-17 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
2019-03-28 01:10 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
2019-05-23 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
2019-07-18 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.75% 6.5% 6.50%
2019-09-19 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.50%
2019-11-21 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.50%

South Africa Trims Repo Rate to 6.5%

The South African Reserve Bank cut its benchmark repo rate by 25 bps to 6.5 percent on July 18th 2019, as widely expected. It was the first rate cut since March last year. Policymakers noted that inflation expectations continued to moderate and said that they will continue to focus on anchoring it near the mid-point of the inflation target range. The Committee added that future policy decisions are highly data dependent, sensitive to the assessment of the balance of risks to the outlook.

Excerpts from the statement by Governor Lesetja Kganyago:

The inflation forecast generated by the SARB’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) is for headline inflation to average 4.4% in 2019 (down from 4.5%). The projections for 2020 and 2021 remain unchanged at 5.1% and 4.6%, respectively. Headline CPI inflation is expected to peak at 5.4% in the first quarter of 2020 and settle at 4.5% in the last two quarters of 2021. The forecast for core inflation is lower at 4.4% in 2019 (down from 4.5%), 4.7% in 2020 (down from 4.8%) and is unchanged at 4.5% in 2021.

Since the May MPC, the rand has appreciated by 3.3% against the US dollar, by 2.4% against the euro, and by 2.3% on a trade-weighted basis. The implied starting point for the rand is R14.30 against the US dollar, compared with R14.40 at the time of the previous meeting. At these levels, the QPM assesses the rand to remain slightly undervalued. While the rand has benefited from improved sentiment towards riskier assets, it underperformed its emerging market peers due to idiosyncratic factors.

Domestic growth prospects and fiscal risks rate high among investor concerns. GDP contracted by 3.2% in the first quarter, reflecting weakness in most sectors of the economy. The sharp quarterly decline was primarily caused by electricity shortages and strikes that fed into broader weakness in investment, household consumption and employment growth. Based on recent short term indicators for the mining and manufacturing sectors, a rebound in GDP is expected in the second quarter of 2019. Continued low business confidence remains a concern for the MPC. The Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index averaged 46.3 points in the second quarter, remaining below the neutral level. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index remains unchanged at 28 points. The SARB’s composite leading business cycle indicator continued to trend lower.

The SARB now expects GDP growth for 2019 to average 0.6% (down from 1.0% in May). The forecast for 2020 and 2021 is unchanged at 1.8% and 2.0% respectively. The MPC assesses the risks to the growth forecast to be balanced in the near term but remains concerned about longer term risks. Investment prospects will continue to be limited in the absence of structural reforms. The escalation of trade tensions could have further negative impacts. While some cyclical factors constrained recent GDP growth outcomes, the Committee remains of the view that current challenges facing the economy are primarily structural in nature and cannot be resolved by monetary policy alone. Implementation of prudent macroeconomic policies together with structural reforms that raise potential growth and lower the cost structure of the economy remains urgent. 

The overall risks to the inflation outlook are assessed to be largely balanced. Demand side pressures are subdued, wages and rental prices are expected to increase at moderate rates and global inflation should remain low. In the absence of shocks, relative exchange rate stability is expected to continue.

Against this backdrop, the MPC unanimously decided to reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 6.5% per annum with effect from 19 July 2019. Monetary policy actions will continue to focus on anchoring inflation expectations near the mid-point of the inflation target range in the interest of balanced and sustainable growth. In this persistently uncertain environment, future policy decisions will continue to be highly data dependent, sensitive to the assessment of the balance of risks to the outlook, and will seek to look-through temporary price shocks.

SARB | Stefanie Moya |
7/18/2019 1:29:59 PM

South Africa Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 6.50 6.50 23.99 5.00 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.83 6.83 16.96 5.06 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 265167.00 262497.00 280228.00 415.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1791081.00 1766962.00 1791081.00 1482.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2905091.00 2932463.00 2947020.00 2887.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3729450.00 3711748.00 3729450.00 4796.00 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 49360.00 49804.00 51889.00 5316.00 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5795430.00 5734169.00 5795430.00 114781.00 ZAR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3795490.00 3777509.00 3795490.00 4051.00 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.03 7.17 21.60 5.08 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.00 10.00 25.50 5.00 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 778639.00 780707.00 827165.00 543.00 ZAR Million [+]

South Africa Interest Rate

In South Africa, the interest rates decisions are taken by the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The official interest rate is the repo rate. This is the rate at which central banks lend or discount eligible paper for deposit money banks, typically shown on an end-of-period basis. This page provides - South Africa Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. South Africa Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on August of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
6.50 6.50 23.99 5.00 1998 - 2019 percent Daily

Country Last Previous
Argentina 74.98 Aug/19
Turkey 19.75 Jul/19
Mexico 8.00 Aug/19
Russia 7.25 Jul/19
South Africa 6.50 Aug/19
Brazil 6.00 Jul/19
Indonesia 5.50 Aug/19
India 5.40 Aug/19
China 4.25 Aug/19
Saudi Arabia 2.75 Aug/19
United States 2.25 Jul/19
Singapore 1.94 Jul/19
Canada 1.75 Aug/19
South Korea 1.50 Jul/19
Australia 1.00 Aug/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Aug/19
Euro Area 0.00 Jul/19
France 0.00 Jul/19
Germany 0.00 Jul/19
Italy 0.00 Jul/19
Netherlands 0.00 Jul/19
Spain 0.00 Jul/19
Japan -0.10 Aug/19
Switzerland -0.75 Aug/19