South Africa - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.

Overview	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	3.10	2	1.5	1.9	2.3	2.1	percent
Unemployment Rate	26.70	27.8	27	27	27.4	24	percent
Inflation Rate	3.80	5	4.8	4.9	5.5	5.1	percent
Interest Rate	6.50	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	7	percent
Balance of Trade	430.00	-4222	-3807	472	1979	-1700	ZAR Million
Government Debt to GDP	53.10	54	54	54	55	56	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Currency	11.96	12.33	12.77	13.24	13.72	15.81
Government Bond 10Y	8.01 percent	8.24	8.47	8.7	8.94	9.98
Stock Market	57526.79 points	53246	51677	50152	48671	43176

GDP	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	3.10 percent	2	1.5	1.9	2.3	2.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate	1.50 percent	1.3	1.3	1.7	1.6	2
GDP	294.84 USD Billion	282	281	390	405	420
GDP Constant Prices	3157028.00 ZAR Million	3135699	3153634	3210697	3143735	3324035
Gross National Product	3129523.00 ZAR Million	3100810	3105662	3182725	3112237	3295075
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	622124.80 ZAR Million	619288	615126	632701	625477	655035
GDP per capita	7504.30 USD	7514	7362	7431	7341	7327
GDP per capita PPP	12260.20 USD	12276	12209	12141	11993	11971
GDP From Agriculture	84616.92 ZAR Million	72161	78647	86055	67348	89093
GDP From Construction	108677.89 ZAR Million	110117	109774	110525	111345	114427
GDP From Manufacturing	389516.73 ZAR Million	384459	387931	396139	385293	410122
GDP From Mining	235157.97 ZAR Million	235820	239380	239156	233610	247598
GDP From Public Administration	478705.47 ZAR Million	478820	480137	486843	485723	504029
GDP From Services	639135.08 ZAR Million	636208	639273	650000	637309	672945
GDP From Transport	270593.36 ZAR Million	269936	270476	275193	270724	284908
GDP From Utilities	65211.74 ZAR Million	66146	65110	66320	65482	68661

LABOUR	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	26.70 percent	27.8	27	27	27.4	24
Employed Persons	9797000.00	9771582	9751260	9733678	9715696	9020000
Unemployed Persons	5880.00 Thousand	6510	6570	6610	6111	6670
Labor Force Participation Rate	58.80 percent	60.2	59.61	60.5	59.58	61
Labour Costs	146.50 Index Points	146	146	146	146	146
Wages	20004.00 ZAR/Month	20100	20500	20500	20200	21600
Wages in Manufacturing	17595.00 ZAR/Month	17300	17600	17900	17100	19000
Population	55.91 Million	58	58	58	59	60
Retirement Age Women	60.00	60	60	60	60	60
Retirement Age Men	60.00	60	60	60	60	60
Wages High Skilled	21300.00 ZAR/Month	21700	21700	21700	22100	23200
Wages Low Skilled	3950.00 ZAR/Month	4108	4108	4108	4157	4157
Youth Unemployment Rate	51.10 percent	53.54	52.62	51.69	51.84	51.51
Living Wage Family	10300.00 ZAR/Month	10400	10400	10400	10500	10630
Living Wage Individual	6460.00 ZAR/Month	6460	6530	6530	6460	6700
Employment Rate	43.10 percent	43.22	43.24	43.12	43.24	45.12

PRICES	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Inflation Rate	3.80 percent	5	4.8	4.9	5.5	5.1
Inflation Rate Mom	0.40 percent	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.7	0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI	106.20 Index Points	108	109	110	113	121
Core Consumer Prices	106.30 Index Points	108	109	109	111	120
Core Inflation Rate	4.10 percent	4.6	4.7	4.6	5	4.9
Producer Prices	105.20 Index Points	107	109	110	112	121
Producer Prices Change	4.20 percent	5.1	5	5	5.3	4.8
Export Prices	155.50 Index Points	151	151	151	151	151
Import Prices	142.00 Index Points	139	139	139	139	139
Food Inflation	3.50 percent	4	4.2	4.5	5.3	5.1
Inflation Expectations	5.34 Percent	5.28	5.28	5.24	5.29	5.3
CPI Housing Utilities	105.50 Index Points	107	109	110	111	121
CPI Transportation	105.00 Index Points	108	108	112	112	123

MONEY	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Interest Rate	6.50 percent	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	7
Interbank Rate	6.90 percent	6.91	6.91	6.91	6.91	7.41
Money Supply M0	245695.00 ZAR Million	235854	239678	237552	236960	237528
Money Supply M1	1656577.00 ZAR Million	1655448	1654112	1654317	1653417	1652786
Money Supply M2	2752647.00 ZAR Million	2756813	2756834	2755311	2753891	2752144
Money Supply M3	3411593.00 ZAR Million	3489186	3545800	3601732	3656987	4222399
Banks Balance Sheet	5195169.00 ZAR Million	5280661	5344778	5408416	5471615	6138752
Foreign Exchange Reserves	49980.00 USD Million	47611	47676	49544	49004	50645
Loans to Private Sector	3479431.00 ZAR Million	3509427	3524149	3534874	3541995	3524822
Deposit Interest Rate	7.17 percent	6.74	7.12	7.5	6.4	5.4
Lending Rate	10.00 percent	10	10	10	10	10.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet	667440.00 ZAR Million	701015	705894	813000	707377	977000

TRADE	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Balance of Trade	430.00 ZAR Million	-4222	-3807	472	1979	-1700
Exports	90593.80 ZAR Million	96400	95214	98513	94621	99742
Imports	90162.50 ZAR Million	100622	99021	98041	92642	101442
Current Account	-137455.00 ZAR Million	-122300	-96528	-93000	-97534	-159000
Current Account to GDP	-2.50 percent	-2.3	-2.3	-2.3	-2.7	-3.2
External Debt	173319.00 USD Million	179031	181117	158000	182946	166000
Tourist Arrivals	1598893.00	1504000	1503600	1368527	1491500	1518528
Gold Reserves	125.30 Tonnes	126	127	127	128	131
Terrorism Index	4.09	4.37	4.51	4.64	4.91	5.45
Weapons Sales	74.00 USD Million	74	74	74	74	74
Crude Oil Production	2.00 BBL/D/1K	2	3	3	2	5
Foreign Direct Investment	1850.00 ZAR Billion	1852	1903	1853	1901	1862

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	53.10 percent	54	54	54	55	56
Government Budget	-4.60 percent of GDP	-4.3	-4.1	-4.1	-3.8	-3.5
Government Budget Value	70466.00 ZAR Million	28655	-11892	32327	-15244	1391262
Government Spending	636608.00 ZAR Million	636139	638234	647430	641124	670285
Government Revenues	131525.00 ZAR Million	161262	136840	149769	132402	1512702
Government Debt	73589.00 USD Million	78418	80761	51100	83131	55800
Fiscal Expenditure	61059.00 ZAR Million	132607	148732	117442	147646	121440
Military Expenditure	3424.40 USD Million	3454	3439	3423	3426	3440

BUSINESS	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Business Confidence	45.00 Index Points	46	46	49	49	51
Manufacturing PMI	46.90	54.7	48.77	55	49.17	55.9
Industrial Production	0.60 percent	1.73	1.57	1.45	1.37	1
Industrial Production Mom	-2.40 percent	0.72	-0.26	0.2	0.63	0.5
Capacity Utilization	81.80 percent	81.53	81.53	81.6	81.53	81.5
Changes in Inventories	10516.00 ZAR Million	10017	-13208	9538	-12739	7048
Bankruptcies	167.00 Companies	153	154	162	156	160
Total Vehicle Sales	49233.00	45340	45326	45279	45705	45688
Car Registrations	32176.00	30433	30039	29680	29358	26746
Leading Economic Index	0.30 percent	0.08	0.4	0.7	0.3	1
Internet Speed	6736.79 KBps	8103	8355	8602	8843	11179
IP Addresses	4274668.00 IP	4215051	4272995	4228378	4262815	4256417
Mining Production	3.10 percent	2.21	2.94	0.6	3.26	1.2
Steel Production	491.40 Thousand Tonnes	559	532	524	530	533
Coincident Index	97.60 Index Points	93.11	94.38	95.6	94.78	94.82
Competitiveness Index	4.32 Points	4.32	4.32	4.32	4.34	4.37
Competitiveness Rank	61.00	61	61	61	62	63
Composite Pmi	51.10	51	51.2	50.5	49.5	49.48
Ease of Doing Business	82.00	75	72	71	82	69
Electricity Production	19565.00 Gigawatt-hour	21886	21366	21550	21552	21485
Corruption Index	43.00 Points	43	43	46	43	48
Corruption Rank	71.00	66	67	59	69	57

CONSUMER	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	-8.00 Index Points	-6	-4	-2	-2	1.6
Retail Sales MoM	1.80 percent	0.02	-0.43	0.5	-0.54	0.7
Retail Sales YoY	4.90 percent	3.1	3.61	1.9	2.77	2.2
Consumer Spending	1928878.00 ZAR Million	1912970	1924433	1961669	1913084	2030916
Disposable Personal Income	2853653.00 ZAR Million	2966767	3034744	2800000	3147894	3140000
Personal Savings	0.20 percent	0.2	0.2	-1.2	0.2	0.2
Private Sector Credit	5.74 percent	7	7.9	5.89	5.46	3.11
Bank Lending Rate	10.00 percent	10	10	10	10	8.5
Gasoline Prices	1.16 USD/Liter	0.96	0.89	0.84	0.96	0.56
Households Debt To Gdp	33.50 percent of GDP	32.72	32.46	37	31.94	36
Households Debt To Income	71.90 percent	71.9	71.9	78	71.9	77

HOUSING	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Housing Index	544.47 Index Points	589	593	521	600	530

TAXES	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	28.00 percent	28	28	28	28	28
Personal Income Tax Rate	45.00 percent	45	45	45	45	45
Sales Tax Rate	15.00 percent	15	15	15	15	15
Social Security Rate	2.00 percent	2	2	2	2	2
Social Security Rate For Companies	1.00 percent	1	1	1	1	2
Social Security Rate For Employees	1.00 percent	1	1	1	1	1

CLIMATE	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Precipitation	19.52 mm	22.89	16.73	51.95	65.57	40.13
Temperature	24.17 celsius	14.08	13.17	20.11	21.97	17.71

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