South Africa - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.10 2 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.1 percent
Unemployment Rate 26.70 27.8 27 27 27.4 24 percent
Inflation Rate 3.80 5 4.8 4.9 5.5 5.1 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 7 percent
Balance of Trade 430.00 -4222 -3807 472 1979 -1700 ZAR Million
Government Debt to GDP 53.10 54 54 54 55 56 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 11.96
12.33 12.77 13.24 13.72 15.81
Government Bond 10Y 8.01
percent
8.24 8.47 8.7 8.94 9.98
Stock Market 57526.79
points
53246 51677 50152 48671 43176
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.10
percent
2 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.50
percent
1.3 1.3 1.7 1.6 2
GDP 294.84
USD Billion
282 281 390 405 420
GDP Constant Prices 3157028.00
ZAR Million
3135699 3153634 3210697 3143735 3324035
Gross National Product 3129523.00
ZAR Million
3100810 3105662 3182725 3112237 3295075
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 622124.80
ZAR Million
619288 615126 632701 625477 655035
GDP per capita 7504.30
USD
7514 7362 7431 7341 7327
GDP per capita PPP 12260.20
USD
12276 12209 12141 11993 11971
GDP From Agriculture 84616.92
ZAR Million
72161 78647 86055 67348 89093
GDP From Construction 108677.89
ZAR Million
110117 109774 110525 111345 114427
GDP From Manufacturing 389516.73
ZAR Million
384459 387931 396139 385293 410122
GDP From Mining 235157.97
ZAR Million
235820 239380 239156 233610 247598
GDP From Public Administration 478705.47
ZAR Million
478820 480137 486843 485723 504029
GDP From Services 639135.08
ZAR Million
636208 639273 650000 637309 672945
GDP From Transport 270593.36
ZAR Million
269936 270476 275193 270724 284908
GDP From Utilities 65211.74
ZAR Million
66146 65110 66320 65482 68661
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 26.70
percent
27.8 27 27 27.4 24
Employed Persons 9797000.00
9771582 9751260 9733678 9715696 9020000
Unemployed Persons 5880.00
Thousand
6510 6570 6610 6111 6670
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.80
percent
60.2 59.61 60.5 59.58 61
Labour Costs 146.50
Index Points
146 146 146 146 146
Wages 20004.00
ZAR/Month
20100 20500 20500 20200 21600
Wages in Manufacturing 17595.00
ZAR/Month
17300 17600 17900 17100 19000
Population 55.91
Million
58 58 58 59 60
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Wages High Skilled 21300.00
ZAR/Month
21700 21700 21700 22100 23200
Wages Low Skilled 3950.00
ZAR/Month
4108 4108 4108 4157 4157
Youth Unemployment Rate 51.10
percent
53.54 52.62 51.69 51.84 51.51
Living Wage Family 10300.00
ZAR/Month
10400 10400 10400 10500 10630
Living Wage Individual 6460.00
ZAR/Month
6460 6530 6530 6460 6700
Employment Rate 43.10
percent
43.22 43.24 43.12 43.24 45.12
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.80
percent
5 4.8 4.9 5.5 5.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 106.20
Index Points
108 109 110 113 121
Core Consumer Prices 106.30
Index Points
108 109 109 111 120
Core Inflation Rate 4.10
percent
4.6 4.7 4.6 5 4.9
Producer Prices 105.20
Index Points
107 109 110 112 121
Producer Prices Change 4.20
percent
5.1 5 5 5.3 4.8
Export Prices 155.50
Index Points
151 151 151 151 151
Import Prices 142.00
Index Points
139 139 139 139 139
Food Inflation 3.50
percent
4 4.2 4.5 5.3 5.1
Inflation Expectations 5.34
Percent
5.28 5.28 5.24 5.29 5.3
CPI Housing Utilities 105.50
Index Points
107 109 110 111 121
CPI Transportation 105.00
Index Points
108 108 112 112 123
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 7
Interbank Rate 6.90
percent
6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 7.41
Money Supply M0 245695.00
ZAR Million
235854 239678 237552 236960 237528
Money Supply M1 1656577.00
ZAR Million
1655448 1654112 1654317 1653417 1652786
Money Supply M2 2752647.00
ZAR Million
2756813 2756834 2755311 2753891 2752144
Money Supply M3 3411593.00
ZAR Million
3489186 3545800 3601732 3656987 4222399
Banks Balance Sheet 5195169.00
ZAR Million
5280661 5344778 5408416 5471615 6138752
Foreign Exchange Reserves 49980.00
USD Million
47611 47676 49544 49004 50645
Loans to Private Sector 3479431.00
ZAR Million
3509427 3524149 3534874 3541995 3524822
Deposit Interest Rate 7.17
percent
6.74 7.12 7.5 6.4 5.4
Lending Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 667440.00
ZAR Million
701015 705894 813000 707377 977000
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 430.00
ZAR Million
-4222 -3807 472 1979 -1700
Exports 90593.80
ZAR Million
96400 95214 98513 94621 99742
Imports 90162.50
ZAR Million
100622 99021 98041 92642 101442
Current Account -137455.00
ZAR Million
-122300 -96528 -93000 -97534 -159000
Current Account to GDP -2.50
percent
-2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.7 -3.2
External Debt 173319.00
USD Million
179031 181117 158000 182946 166000
Tourist Arrivals 1598893.00
1504000 1503600 1368527 1491500 1518528
Gold Reserves 125.30
Tonnes
126 127 127 128 131
Terrorism Index 4.09
4.37 4.51 4.64 4.91 5.45
Weapons Sales 74.00
USD Million
74 74 74 74 74
Crude Oil Production 2.00
BBL/D/1K
2 3 3 2 5
Foreign Direct Investment 1850.00
ZAR Billion
1852 1903 1853 1901 1862
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 53.10
percent
54 54 54 55 56
Government Budget -4.60
percent of GDP
-4.3 -4.1 -4.1 -3.8 -3.5
Government Budget Value 70466.00
ZAR Million
28655 -11892 32327 -15244 1391262
Government Spending 636608.00
ZAR Million
636139 638234 647430 641124 670285
Government Revenues 131525.00
ZAR Million
161262 136840 149769 132402 1512702
Government Debt 73589.00
USD Million
78418 80761 51100 83131 55800
Fiscal Expenditure 61059.00
ZAR Million
132607 148732 117442 147646 121440
Military Expenditure 3424.40
USD Million
3454 3439 3423 3426 3440
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 45.00
Index Points
46 46 49 49 51
Manufacturing PMI 46.90
54.7 48.77 55 49.17 55.9
Industrial Production 0.60
percent
1.73 1.57 1.45 1.37 1
Industrial Production Mom -2.40
percent
0.72 -0.26 0.2 0.63 0.5
Capacity Utilization 81.80
percent
81.53 81.53 81.6 81.53 81.5
Changes in Inventories 10516.00
ZAR Million
10017 -13208 9538 -12739 7048
Bankruptcies 167.00
Companies
153 154 162 156 160
Total Vehicle Sales 49233.00
45340 45326 45279 45705 45688
Car Registrations 32176.00
30433 30039 29680 29358 26746
Leading Economic Index 0.30
percent
0.08 0.4 0.7 0.3 1
Internet Speed 6736.79
KBps
8103 8355 8602 8843 11179
IP Addresses 4274668.00
IP
4215051 4272995 4228378 4262815 4256417
Mining Production 3.10
percent
2.21 2.94 0.6 3.26 1.2
Steel Production 491.40
Thousand Tonnes
559 532 524 530 533
Coincident Index 97.60
Index Points
93.11 94.38 95.6 94.78 94.82
Competitiveness Index 4.32
Points
4.32 4.32 4.32 4.34 4.37
Competitiveness Rank 61.00
61 61 61 62 63
Composite Pmi 51.10
51 51.2 50.5 49.5 49.48
Ease of Doing Business 82.00
75 72 71 82 69
Electricity Production 19565.00
Gigawatt-hour
21886 21366 21550 21552 21485
Corruption Index 43.00
Points
43 43 46 43 48
Corruption Rank 71.00
66 67 59 69 57
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -8.00
Index Points
-6 -4 -2 -2 1.6
Retail Sales MoM 1.80
percent
0.02 -0.43 0.5 -0.54 0.7
Retail Sales YoY 4.90
percent
3.1 3.61 1.9 2.77 2.2
Consumer Spending 1928878.00
ZAR Million
1912970 1924433 1961669 1913084 2030916
Disposable Personal Income 2853653.00
ZAR Million
2966767 3034744 2800000 3147894 3140000
Personal Savings 0.20
percent
0.2 0.2 -1.2 0.2 0.2
Private Sector Credit 5.74
percent
7 7.9 5.89 5.46 3.11
Bank Lending Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 8.5
Gasoline Prices 1.16
USD/Liter
0.96 0.89 0.84 0.96 0.56
Households Debt To Gdp 33.50
percent of GDP
32.72 32.46 37 31.94 36
Households Debt To Income 71.90
percent
71.9 71.9 78 71.9 77
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 544.47
Index Points
589 593 521 600 530
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent
28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 2.00
percent
2 2 2 2 2
Social Security Rate For Companies 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 2
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 19.52
mm
22.89 16.73 51.95 65.57 40.13
Temperature 24.17
celsius
14.08 13.17 20.11 21.97 17.71