South Africa | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.70 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 27.70 28 27.5 28 27.8 24 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.60 4.7 4.5 4.7 5 5.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.75 6.75 6.5 6.5 6.5 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 10672.47 -10265 -6639 5510 5410 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 51.70 51.7 51.7 52 52 52 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 13.26 13.32 13.45 13.59 13.72 15.17 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 8.54 8.92 9.01 9.09 9.18 10.15 percent [+]
Stock Market 56169.95 51500 51000 50500 50000 44200 points [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.70 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00 1 1.2 1.1 0.8 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 294.84 360 360 295 295 420 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 3078342.70 3083690 3090673 3098524 3106973 3189747 ZAR Million [+]
Gross National Product 3062610.00 3090791 3109848 3112102 3122554 3152831 ZAR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 613858.30 614467 613549 614552 613889 614292 ZAR Million [+]
GDP per capita 7504.30 7499 7466 7463 7460 7421 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12260.20 12209 12141 12125 12110 11993 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 68830.07 71033 69478 68747 68741 61200 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 108963.88 109006 108837 108873 108815 108544 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 377900.60 379899 382244 384043 385526 398117 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 230019.40 226474 228096 225319 227962 240000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 475267.70 475563 475690 475691 475804 476308 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Services 619022.93 621104 623076 625093 627140 645849 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 263040.32 261357 260452 259861 259197 255641 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 63330.55 63089 62908 62880 62985 68800 ZAR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 27.70 28 27.5 28 27.8 24 percent [+]
Employed Persons 9644000.00 9643282 9675743 9658939 9668177 9020000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 6176.87 5899 5800 6569 6525 5140 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.90 59.8 60 60.2 60.2 61 percent [+]
Labour Costs 142.40 147 149 150 152 168 Index Points [+]
Wages 18687.00 19198 19482 19723 19979 22432 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 16270.00 16890 17459 17076 17449 19209 ZAR/Month [+]
Population 55.91 57 57 57 57 59.53 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 10800.00 10431 10689 10470 10655 10587 ZAR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 7222.50 7052 7025 7006 6993 6962 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3650.00 3318 3286 3261 3240 3168 ZAR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 55.90 51.5 52.84 54.1 55.31 51.51 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 20100.00 20465 20465 20465 20465 20465 ZAR/Month [+]
Employment Rate 43.30 43.27 43.4 43.52 43.36 45.12 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.60 4.7 4.5 4.7 5 5.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.2 0.4 0.44 0.44 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.20 104 105 106 108 110 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 103.30 104 105 106 108 109 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.70 5.7 5.3 4.4 4.35 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 101.80 137 139 102 102 144 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.00 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.8 percent [+]
Export Prices 146.80 147 147 147 147 148 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 135.50 134 133 133 134 134 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 6.80 8.2 8 7.9 7.8 7.1 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 103.00 103 104 105 106 118 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 101.20 114 113 103 103 119 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.75 6.75 6.5 6.5 6.5 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.05 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.3 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 231469.00 234337 237708 240924 244131 275828 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1601581.00 1597527 1601666 1603400 1603875 1604350 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2576502.00 2612420 2638715 2666121 2692981 2943797 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3206208.00 3246402 3284614 3322655 3360308 3717809 ZAR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4945702.00 5001908 5058937 5115504 5171577 5706028 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 46746.00 48999 49144 46558 46557 50645 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3356165.00 3405336 3451159 3495466 3538711 3921261 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.20 6.6 6.6 6.03 5.99 5.4 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 9.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 688118.00 746720 783000 708420 715654 977000 ZAR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 10672.47 -10265 -6639 5510 5410 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Exports 102138.70 85456 90804 97613 97528 99742 ZAR Million [+]
Imports 91466.22 95721 97443 90966 90996 101442 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account -91499.00 -105000 -89000 -99000 -102000 -159000 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.30 -3.2 -3.2 -3.4 -3.4 -3.1 percent [+]
External Debt 152793.00 150000 153000 159581 160411 166000 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1249433.00 1278553 1340509 1280923 1276880 1518528 [+]
Gold Reserves 125.25 125 125 125 125 125 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 3.53 2.67 2.42 2.18 1.93 1.99 [+]
Weapons Sales 59.00 32.86 60.74 23.54 30.98 26.03 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1868.00 1872 1888 1884 1888 1885 ZAR Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 51.70 51.7 51.7 52 52 52 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.90 -4.2 -4.2 -3.72 -3.69 -4.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 27559.00 -3870 26500 -7930 11057 32600 ZAR Million [+]
Government Spending 633183.00 657000 671000 642759 644679 697000 ZAR Million [+]
Government Revenues 131468.00 105214 147236 104512 120503 1512702 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt 58798.00 48100 49500 60979 61020 55800 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 103910.00 95432 113502 107301 106670 121440 ZAR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3424.40 3427 3422 3420 3418 3419 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 29.00 42 45 27.38 25.59 45 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 42.90 54 54.5 54.7 54.7 55.9 [+]
Industrial Production -2.30 2 1.9 -2.38 -2.36 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.00 0.7 -0.2 0.12 0.1 0.5 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.70 82.6 81.9 81.76 81.73 81.5 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 2749.00 679 2829 2989 3616 5424 ZAR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 154.00 150 149 149 149 149 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 46719.00 42518 44418 44058 43967 44025 [+]
Car Registrations 30826.00 30548 28899 28590 28660 28651 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.10 0.2 0.4 0.09 0.1 1 percent [+]
Mining Production -0.80 0.4 0.5 -0.04 -0.05 1.2 percent [+]
Steel Production 458.00 500 511 514 515 515 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.47 4.42 4.42 4.47 4.49 4.53 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 47.00 48 48 46 45 45 [+]
Composite Pmi 50.10 50.05 49.96 49.94 49.94 49.94 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 74.00 72 72 73 74 69 [+]
Electricity Production 21845.00 21269 20729 21112 21389 21160 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 45.00 45 45 45 45 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 64.00 68 60 69 70 57 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -9.00 -10 -7 -5 -6 1.6 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.20 0.5 0.8 0.22 0.21 0.7 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.90 1.8 2.2 1.49 1.49 2.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1865094.00 1864116 1860283 1859012 1856891 1847545 ZAR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2674938.00 2686922 2660000 2723769 2741717 3140000 ZAR Million [+]
Personal Savings -0.30 -1.6 -1.8 -1.33 -1.34 0.2 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 6.16 6.18 7.51 6.32 6.42 3.11 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 10.25 10 10 10.03 10.02 8.5 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.96 1.26 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 34.50 33.73 37.5 33.22 32.97 36 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 74.40 78.5 78.5 70.61 70.3 77 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 544.47 511 517 653 660 530 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 29.84 30.51 30.08 29.65 29.16 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 43.4 43.4 49.84 51.98 66.95 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 14 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 2.00 2.25 2 2 2 2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 1.00 1.25 1 1 1 1 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]