South Africa - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.20 1 1.5 1.7 1.3 2 percent
Unemployment Rate 26.70 27 27 27 27.4 24 percent
Inflation Rate 4.40 5 4.8 4.9 5.5 5.2 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6.5 6.75 6.75 7.5 percent
Balance of Trade 1140.00 7973 5599 472 4540 -1700 ZAR Million
Government Debt to GDP 53.10 54 54 54 55 56 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 13.43
 12.33 12.77 13.24 13.72 15.81
Government Bond 10Y 8.87
percent		 8.24 8.47 8.7 8.94 9.98
Stock Market 56856.66
points		 53246 51677 50152 48671 43176
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.20
percent		 1 1.5 1.7 1.3 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.80
percent		 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.6 2
GDP 294.84
USD Billion		 282 281 390 405 420
GDP Constant Prices 3137110.10
ZAR Million		 3135699 3153634 3210697 3187304 3330585
Gross National Product 3076397.00
ZAR Million		 3100810 3105662 3182725 3125619 3301568
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 617115.60
ZAR Million		 619288 615126 632701 626989 656326
GDP per capita 7504.30
USD		 7514 7362 7431 7341 7327
GDP per capita PPP 12260.20
USD		 12276 12209 12141 11993 11971
GDP From Agriculture 78966.90
ZAR Million		 72161 78647 86055 80230 89269
GDP From Construction 108161.67
ZAR Million		 110117 109774 110525 109892 114652
GDP From Manufacturing 383150.11
ZAR Million		 384459 387931 396139 389281 410930
GDP From Mining 229121.66
ZAR Million		 235820 239380 239156 232788 248086
GDP From Public Administration 480861.91
ZAR Million		 478820 480137 486843 488556 505022
GDP From Services 640882.86
ZAR Million		 636208 639273 650000 651137 674271
GDP From Transport 271183.77
ZAR Million		 269936 270476 275193 275523 285469
GDP From Utilities 65132.85
ZAR Million		 66146 65110 66320 66175 68797
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 26.70
percent		 27 27 27 27.4 24
Employed Persons 9797000.00
 9771582 9751260 9733678 9715696 9020000
Unemployed Persons 6000.00
Thousand 		6510 6570 6610 6111 6670
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.30
percent		 60.2 59.61 60.5 59.58 61
Labour Costs 148.30
Index Points		 152 153 155 156 173
Wages 20004.00
ZAR/Month		 20100 20500 20500 20200 21600
Wages in Manufacturing 17595.00
ZAR/Month		 17300 17600 17900 17100 19000
Population 56.52
Million		 58 58 58 59 60
Retirement Age Women 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Wages High Skilled 21300.00
ZAR/Month		 21700 21700 21700 22100 23200
Wages Low Skilled 3950.00
ZAR/Month		 4108 4108 4108 4157 4157
Youth Unemployment Rate 52.40
percent		 53.54 52.62 51.69 51.84 51.51
Living Wage Family 10300.00
ZAR/Month		 10400 10400 10400 10500 10630
Living Wage Individual 6460.00
ZAR/Month		 6460 6530 6530 6460 6700
Employment Rate 43.10
percent		 43.22 43.24 43.12 43.24 45.12
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.40
percent		 5 4.8 4.9 5.5 5.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent		 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 107.20
Index Points		 108 109 110 112 122
Core Consumer Prices 106.90
Index Points		 108 109 109 112 120
Core Inflation Rate 4.40
percent		 4.6 4.7 4.5 5.2 5.1
Producer Prices 106.10
Index Points		 107 109 110 111 121
Producer Prices Change 4.40
percent		 5.1 5 5 5.3 4.8
Export Prices 149.00
Index Points		 148 147 147 145 145
Import Prices 141.40
Index Points		 141 141 140 140 140
Food Inflation 3.40
percent		 4 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.2
Inflation Expectations 5.34
Percent		 5.28 5.28 5.24 5.29 5.3
CPI Housing Utilities 105.70
Index Points		 107 109 110 111 121
CPI Transportation 108.20
Index Points		 108 108 112 111 124
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent		 6.5 6.5 6.75 6.75 7.5
Interbank Rate 6.93
percent		 6.93 6.93 7.18 7.18 7.93
Money Supply M0 249275.00
ZAR Million		 248748 253115 256490 259880 297290
Money Supply M1 1657875.00
ZAR Million		 1650440 1646229 1644731 1644687 1643198
Money Supply M2 2752713.00
ZAR Million		 2736328 2726439 2718091 2714621 2707411
Money Supply M3 3390766.00
ZAR Million		 3419011 3459079 3498302 3536917 3923903
Banks Balance Sheet 5202003.00
ZAR Million		 5242844 5303044 5363187 5422888 6050722
Foreign Exchange Reserves 51146.00
USD Million		 51396 51683 49544 51752 50645
Loans to Private Sector 3489281.00
ZAR Million		 3521601 3555260 3590220 3624493 3948751
Deposit Interest Rate 7.25
percent		 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 8.25
Central Bank Balance Sheet 723616.00
ZAR Million		 722771 721241 813000 721300 977000
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 1140.00
ZAR Million		 7973 5599 472 4540 -1700
Exports 88498.00
ZAR Million		 97211 95596 98513 94526 99742
Imports 87357.00
ZAR Million		 89238 89998 98041 89986 101442
Current Account -229000.00
ZAR Million		 -122300 -201185 -93000 -207234 -159000
Current Account to GDP -2.50
percent		 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.7 -3.2
External Debt 173319.00
USD Million		 179031 181117 158000 182946 166000
Tourist Arrivals 1298709.00
 1325100 1330500 1368527 1331200 1518528
Gold Reserves 125.30
Tonnes		 125 125 125 125 125
Terrorism Index 4.09
 4.37 4.51 4.64 4.91 5.45
Weapons Sales 74.00
USD Million		 74 74 74 74 74
Crude Oil Production 2.00
BBL/D/1K		 2 3 3 2 5
Foreign Direct Investment 1850.00
ZAR Billion		 1852 1903 1853 1901 1862
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 53.10
percent		 54 54 54 55 56
Government Budget -4.60
percent of GDP		 -4.3 -4.1 -4.1 -3.8 -3.5
Government Budget Value -37487.00
ZAR Million		 23247 4941 32327 1231 1391262
Government Spending 638476.00
ZAR Million		 636139 638234 647430 648692 671605
Government Revenues 69197.00
ZAR Million		 147198 123881 149769 118668 1512702
Government Debt 73589.00
USD Million		 78418 80761 51100 83131 55800
Fiscal Expenditure 106683.00
ZAR Million		 123950 118940 117442 117436 121440
Military Expenditure 3110.20
USD Million		 3454 3439 3423 3426 3440
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 39.00
Index Points		 40 50 49 49 51
Manufacturing PMI 49.80
 54.7 49.59 55 49.61 55.9
Industrial Production 1.10
percent		 -0.43 -0.1 -0.02 0 1
Industrial Production Mom -0.60
percent		 0.4 0.13 0.2 0.09 0.5
Capacity Utilization 81.10
percent		 80.94 80.9 81.6 80.96 81.5
Changes in Inventories 11633.00
ZAR Million		 2368 8299 7991 5404 6416
Bankruptcies 113.00
Companies		 151 154 153 153 153
Total Vehicle Sales 42984.00
 43665 42258 43368 43172 43147
Car Registrations 26561.00
 28046 27112 27951 27739 27754
Leading Economic Index -0.80
percent		 0.01 0.4 0.7 0.3 1
Internet Speed 6736.79
KBps		 8103 8355 8602 8843 11179
IP Addresses 4274668.00
IP		 4215051 4272995 4228378 4262815 4256417
Mining Production -4.30
percent		 -1.48 -1.47 0.6 -1.64 1.2
Steel Production 485.90
Thousand Tonnes		 508 518 521 521 521
Coincident Index 94.00
Index Points		 93.1 94.68 94.64 94.65 94.65
Competitiveness Index 4.32
Points		 4.32 4.32 4.32 4.34 4.37
Competitiveness Rank 61.00
 61 61 61 62 63
Composite Pmi 50.00
 51 51.2 50.5 49.92 49.92
Ease of Doing Business 82.00
 75 72 71 82 69
Electricity Production 20345.00
Gigawatt-hour		 21365 21218 21045 21093 21158
Corruption Index 43.00
Points		 43 43 46 43 48
Corruption Rank 71.00
 66 67 59 69 57
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 26.00
Index Points		 16 17 18 10 1.6
Retail Sales MoM -1.20
percent		 0 0.05 0.5 0.11 0.7
Retail Sales YoY 0.50
percent		 3.1 2.04 1.9 1.96 2.2
Consumer Spending 1936072.00
ZAR Million		 1912970 1924433 1961669 1967049 2034918
Disposable Personal Income 2868646.00
ZAR Million		 2911942 2965725 2800000 3035351 3140000
Personal Savings -0.20
percent		 -0.22 0.03 -1.2 0 0.2
Private Sector Credit 5.07
percent		 7 7.9 5.89 5.19 3.11
Bank Lending Rate 10.00
percent		 10 10 10 10 8.5
Gasoline Prices 1.18
USD/Liter		 1.18 1.11 1.05 0.99 0.69
Households Debt To Gdp 33.10
percent of GDP		 32.58 32.31 37 31.78 36
Households Debt To Income 71.90
percent		 71.9 71.9 78 71.9 77
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 544.47
Index Points		 589 593 521 600 530
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent		 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent		 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent		 15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 2.00
percent		 2 2 2 2 2
Social Security Rate For Companies 1.00
percent		 1 1 1 1 2
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent		 1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 19.52
mm		 22.89 16.73 51.95 65.57 40.13
Temperature 24.17
celsius		 14.08 13.17 20.11 21.97 17.71