South Africa - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.00 1.1 1.1 2.7 1.9 2.1 percent
Unemployment Rate 26.70 28 27.8 26.6 26 24 percent
Inflation Rate 4.70 4.6 4.9 5.2 5 5.1 percent
Interest Rate 6.75 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.75 7 percent
Balance of Trade 15720.00 9381 5927 3904 472 -1700 ZAR Million
Government Debt to GDP 51.60 54 54 54 54 53 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 11.63
12.77 13.26 13.76 14.28 16.58
Government Bond 10Y 8.11
percent
8.71 8.98 9.26 9.54 10.77
Stock Market 59122.34
points
59156 57701 56282 54899 44979
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.00
percent
1.1 1.1 2.7 1.9 2.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.80
percent
1.1 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.9
GDP 294.84
USD Billion
285 284 283 390 420
GDP Constant Prices 3117014.00
ZAR Million
3140365 3148371 3154505 3159105 3165286
Gross National Product 3085606.00
ZAR Million
3091659 3092421 3092451 3091921 3081337
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 617647.10
ZAR Million
619923 620090 619618 618729 607473
GDP per capita 7504.30
USD
7525 7489 7453 7417 7156
GDP per capita PPP 12260.20
USD
12351 12311 12271 12230 12143
GDP From Agriculture 82009.97
ZAR Million
81747 77501 74390 73652 61200
GDP From Construction 108735.26
ZAR Million
108198 107842 107487 107123 103496
GDP From Manufacturing 383325.60
ZAR Million
385773 385173 384438 383765 381022
GDP From Mining 238564.29
ZAR Million
238061 237596 236869 236344 240000
GDP From Public Administration 472908.40
ZAR Million
470960 470013 469075 468149 461060
GDP From Services 624844.78
ZAR Million
628025 629291 630357 631241 633314
GDP From Transport 264878.82
ZAR Million
265506 265702 265825 265880 264493
GDP From Utilities 63774.81
ZAR Million
63322 63177 63031 62967 68800
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 26.70
percent
28 27.8 26.6 26 24
Employed Persons 9589000.00
9562163 9549905 9537334 9524818 9020000
Unemployed Persons 5880.00
Thousand
6450 6510 6570 6610 6670
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.80
percent
60.2 60.2 58.39 60.5 61
Labour Costs 146.40
Index Points
152 153 155 156 162
Wages 19608.00
ZAR/Month
20003 20186 20274 20360 20291
Wages in Manufacturing 17023.00
ZAR/Month
17043 17098 17071 17072 16812
Population 55.91
Million
58 58 58 58 59.44
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
61 61 61 61 60
Living Wage Family 10300.00
ZAR/Month
10300 10360 10400 10400 10630
Living Wage Individual 6460.00
ZAR/Month
6460 6460 6530 6530 6700
Wages Low Skilled 3950.00
ZAR/Month
4021 4050 4079 4108 4069
Youth Unemployment Rate 52.20
percent
52.26 53.51 52.62 51.68 51.51
Wages High Skilled 21300.00
ZAR/Month
21300 21700 21700 21700 23200
Employment Rate 43.30
percent
43.37 43.37 43.38 43.12 45.12
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.70
percent
4.6 4.9 5.2 5 5.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.45 0.48 0.47 0.6 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.70
Index Points
106 108 109 109 111
Core Consumer Prices 104.20
Index Points
106 108 109 109 109
Core Inflation Rate 4.20
percent
4.5 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.8
Producer Prices 105.20
Index Points
105 104 104 141 144
Producer Prices Change 5.20
percent
5.1 5.1 5 5 4.8
Export Prices 149.10
Index Points
150 150 150 150 149
Import Prices 137.60
Index Points
138 138 138 138 137
Food Inflation 4.80
percent
3.8 4 4.2 4.5 6
CPI Housing Utilities 104.40
Index Points
105 105 105 104 103
CPI Transportation 106.40
Index Points
106 106 105 115 119
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.75
percent
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.75 7
Interbank Rate 7.13
percent
7.16 7.18 7.2 7.21 7
Money Supply M0 240007.00
ZAR Million
246232 243982 243725 243678 242963
Money Supply M1 1700792.00
ZAR Million
1704800 1704608 1704161 1703701 1698194
Money Supply M2 2805859.00
ZAR Million
2857337 2874992 2880633 2881975 2870161
Money Supply M3 3369240.00
ZAR Million
3426692 3470463 3501448 3522637 3546927
Banks Balance Sheet 5155621.00
ZAR Million
5171793 5176207 5175785 5173659 5138847
Foreign Exchange Reserves 50501.00
USD Million
50731 50696 50634 49544 50645
Loans to Private Sector 3481704.00
ZAR Million
3548809 3604490 3648683 3682844 3767131
Deposit Interest Rate 7.17
percent
7.07 7.36 7.65 7.94 5.4
Lending Rate 10.25
percent
10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 9.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 677634.00
ZAR Million
680510 678263 677408 813000 977000
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 15720.00
ZAR Million
9381 5927 3904 472 -1700
Exports 104320.30
ZAR Million
106535 106938 106868 98513 99742
Imports 88596.20
ZAR Million
93009 93722 93666 98041 101442
Current Account -108888.00
ZAR Million
-99000 -102000 -102163 -93000 -159000
Current Account to GDP -3.30
percent
-2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -3
External Debt 163311.00
USD Million
167785 168735 169100 158000 166000
Tourist Arrivals 1329025.00
1319100 1315100 1310200 1368527 1518528
Gold Reserves 125.28
Tonnes
126 127 128 128 131
Terrorism Index 4.09
3.1 3.29 3.49 3.68 2.76
Weapons Sales 59.00
USD Million
54.22 55.21 56.2 57.2 58.4
Crude Oil Production 1.00
BBL/D/1K
2 2 3 3 5
Foreign Direct Investment 1916.00
ZAR Billion
1902 1844 1827 1813 1737
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 51.60
percent
54 54 54 54 53
Government Budget -3.90
percent of GDP
-3.72 -3.7 -3.68 -3.8 -4.1
Government Budget Value 18229.00
ZAR Million
6229 1960 -956 27700 32600
Government Spending 633380.00
ZAR Million
632744 632413 631982 683000 697000
Government Revenues 157508.00
ZAR Million
140113 129380 121421 149769 1512702
Government Debt 66540.00
USD Million
69484 70050 70269 51100 55800
Fiscal Expenditure 139278.00
ZAR Million
111097 108529 110069 117442 121440
Military Expenditure 3424.40
USD Million
3451 3442 3434 3426 3431
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 34.00
Index Points
36.54 37.79 39.57 43 45
Manufacturing PMI 49.90
54.7 54.7 50.85 55 55.9
Industrial Production 2.00
percent
2.09 1.83 1.61 1.46 1
Industrial Production Mom 1.10
percent
0.2 0.1 0.09 0.2 0.5
Capacity Utilization 81.50
percent
81.57 81.6 81.62 81.6 81.5
Changes in Inventories -5527.00
ZAR Million
2002 2395 3648 3841 5244
Bankruptcies 137.00
Companies
187 192 198 204 227
Total Vehicle Sales 45888.00
46743 45537 45149 44971 42842
Car Registrations 32642.00
31477 30609 30015 29562 25881
Leading Economic Index 0.70
percent
0.25 0.17 0.14 0.7 1
Internet Speed 6736.79
KBps
6705 6625 6537 6447 5741
IP Addresses 4274668.00
IP
4261257 4237882 4236845 4222272 4153816
Steel Production 503.40
Thousand Tonnes
561 587 609 626 681
Mining Production 0.10
percent
0.52 0.13 0.01 0.6 1.2
Coincident Index 99.70
Index Points
98.93 99.2 99.41 99.61 102
Competitiveness Index 4.32
Points
4.4 4.4 4.4 4.46 4.53
Competitiveness Rank 61.00
50 50 50 47 45
Composite Pmi 49.00
49.67 49.82 49.83 49.84 49.84
Ease of Doing Business 82.00
80 75 72 71 69
Electricity Production 20749.00
Gigawatt-hour
20562 20318 20149 19995 18778
Corruption Index 45.00
Points
46 46 46 46 48
Corruption Rank 64.00
61 61 61 59 57
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -8.00
Index Points
-5 -6 -4 -2 1.6
Retail Sales MoM -2.60
percent
-0.06 0.29 0.36 0.5 0.7
Retail Sales YoY 5.30
percent
5.78 5.55 5.41 1.9 2.2
Consumer Spending 1897011.00
ZAR Million
1914269 1921693 1928068 1933767 1954841
Disposable Personal Income 2760742.00
ZAR Million
2842660 2879443 2916144 2800000 3140000
Personal Savings 0.20
percent
0.24 0.46 0.53 -1.2 0.2
Private Sector Credit 6.72
percent
7.83 8.78 9.57 5.89 3.11
Bank Lending Rate 10.25
percent
10.35 10.57 10.8 9.5 8.5
Gasoline Prices 1.22
USD/Liter
1.24 1.25 1.24 1.01 1.26
Households Debt To Gdp 33.90
percent of GDP
33.56 33.55 33.57 37 36
Households Debt To Income 74.40
percent
75.73 74.1 72.47 78 77
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 544.47
Index Points
605 617 629 521 530
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent
29 29 29 29 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
46 46 46 46 40
Sales Tax Rate 14.00
percent
14 14 14 14 14
Social Security Rate 2.00
percent
2 2 2 2 3
Social Security Rate For Companies 1.00
percent
1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.78
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 24.17
celsius
21.93 14.08 13.17 20.11 17.71
Precipitation 19.52
mm
65.44 22.89 16.73 51.95 40.13