South Africa - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.20 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.5 2 percent
Unemployment Rate 27.20 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.1 24 percent
Inflation Rate 4.60 4.8 4.9 5.7 5.7 5.4 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6.75 6.75 6.75 7.5 percent
Balance of Trade 11999.00 6917 472 4988 4667 -1700 ZAR Million
Government Debt to GDP 53.10 54 54 55 55 56 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 14.40
14.2 14.72 15.27 15.83 18.3
Government Bond 10Y 8.99
percent
9.1 9.37 9.64 9.92 11.14
Stock Market 57186.66
points
55487 53639 51854 50126 43775
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.20
percent
1.5 1.2 1.3 1.5 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.80
percent
1.3 1.7 1.6 0.8 2
GDP 349.42
USD Billion
390 390 405 405 420
GDP Constant Prices 3137110.10
ZAR Million
3153634 3210697 3187304 3140373 3330585
Gross National Product 3076397.00
ZAR Million
3105662 3182725 3125619 3105431 3301568
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 617115.60
ZAR Million
615126 632701 626989 620211 656326
GDP per capita 7524.51
USD
7562 7562 7640 7640 7700
GDP per capita PPP 12294.88
USD
12300 12300 12350 12350 12395
GDP From Agriculture 78966.90
ZAR Million
78647 86055 80230 72268 89269
GDP From Construction 108161.67
ZAR Million
109774 110525 109892 110282 114652
GDP From Manufacturing 383150.11
ZAR Million
387931 396139 389281 385032 410930
GDP From Mining 229121.66
ZAR Million
239380 239156 232788 236172 248086
GDP From Public Administration 480861.91
ZAR Million
480137 486843 488556 479534 505022
GDP From Services 640882.86
ZAR Million
639273 650000 651137 637156 674271
GDP From Transport 271183.77
ZAR Million
270476 275193 275523 270338 285469
GDP From Utilities 65132.85
ZAR Million
65110 66320 66175 66245 68797
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 27.20
percent
27.4 27.4 27.2 27.1 24
Employed Persons 9838000.00
9978000 10111000 10511000 10711000 11711000
Unemployed Persons 6100.00
Thousand
6570 6610 6037 6059 6670
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.10
percent
59.67 60.5 59.65 59.18 61
Labour Costs 148.30
Index Points
153 155 156 158 173
Wages 19858.00
ZAR/Month
20500 20500 20200 21612 21600
Wages in Manufacturing 17146.00
ZAR/Month
17600 17900 17100 18211 19000
Population 56.52
Million
58 58 59 59 60
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Wages High Skilled 21300.00
ZAR/Month
21700 21700 22100 20101 23200
Wages Low Skilled 3950.00
ZAR/Month
4108 4108 4157 4073 4157
Youth Unemployment Rate 53.70
percent
52.24 51.44 52.18 53.07 51.51
Living Wage Family 10300.00
ZAR/Month
10400 10400 10500 10264 10630
Living Wage Individual 6460.00
ZAR/Month
6530 6530 6467 6466 6700
Employment Rate 43.10
percent
42.98 43.12 43.07 42.92 45.12
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.60
percent
4.8 4.9 5.7 5.7 5.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.6 0.5 0.7 0.44 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 107.60
Index Points
109 110 112 114 122
Core Consumer Prices 107.10
Index Points
108 109 112 112 121
Core Inflation Rate 4.20
percent
4.5 4.6 5.2 5 5.3
Producer Prices 107.80
Index Points
110 112 111 114 124
Producer Prices Change 5.90
percent
6.2 6.4 6 5.8 5
Export Prices 149.00
Index Points
147 147 145 146 145
Import Prices 141.40
Index Points
141 140 140 140 140
Food Inflation 3.40
percent
4.2 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.2
Inflation Expectations 5.42
Percent
5.45 5.41 5.48 5.47 5.46
CPI Housing Utilities 106.00
Index Points
109 109 112 112 122
CPI Transportation 110.20
Index Points
108 112 111 116 124
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent
6.5 6.75 6.75 6.75 7.5
Interbank Rate 7.02
percent
7.02 7.27 7.27 7.27 8.02
Money Supply M0 248450.00
ZAR Million
251040 254062 257101 260418 292765
Money Supply M1 1643044.00
ZAR Million
1640244 1636058 1635065 1633568 1632840
Money Supply M2 2703946.00
ZAR Million
2682429 2659587 2648259 2640025 2629310
Money Supply M3 3407237.00
ZAR Million
3442736 3477878 3512401 3546311 3854024
Banks Balance Sheet 5294383.00
ZAR Million
5235195 5288696 5341784 5394382 5894281
Foreign Exchange Reserves 50511.00
USD Million
50583 49544 50611 50612 50645
Loans to Private Sector 3550866.00
ZAR Million
3591760 3635609 3679636 3722905 4106129
Deposit Interest Rate 7.25
percent
7.25 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.25
Central Bank Balance Sheet 739906.00
ZAR Million
772724 813000 769771 769803 977000
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 11999.00
ZAR Million
6917 472 4988 4667 -1700
Exports 110148.00
ZAR Million
103325 98513 101209 100906 99742
Imports 98148.00
ZAR Million
96408 98041 96222 96239 101442
Current Account -229000.00
ZAR Million
-201185 -93000 -207234 -201661 -159000
Current Account to GDP -2.50
percent
-2.3 -2.3 -2.7 -2.7 -3.2
External Debt 183239.00
USD Million
193318 158000 198531 200261 166000
Tourist Arrivals 1196107.00
1305700 1368527 1309100 1309200 1518528
Gold Reserves 125.30
Tonnes
125 125 125 125 125
Terrorism Index 4.09
4.51 4.64 4.91 5.18 5.45
Weapons Sales 74.00
USD Million
51.17 59.79 62.52 65.26 67.86
Crude Oil Production 2.00
BBL/D/1K
3 3 3 3 5
Foreign Direct Investment 1961.00
ZAR Billion
2022 2037 2041 2029 2028
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 53.10
percent
54 54 55 55 56
Government Budget -4.60
percent of GDP
-4.1 -4.1 -3.8 -3.8 -3.5
Government Budget Value 35505.00
ZAR Million
3571 32327 -1137 17855 1391262
Government Spending 638476.00
ZAR Million
638234 647430 648692 637087 671605
Government Revenues 142336.00
ZAR Million
118889 149769 113556 132145 1512702
Government Debt 81061.00
USD Million
89034 51100 94674 96922 55800
Fiscal Expenditure 106831.00
ZAR Million
115318 117442 114693 114290 121440
Military Expenditure 3110.20
USD Million
3100 3081 3079 3078 3057
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 39.00
Index Points
43 49 49 50 51
Manufacturing PMI 51.50
50.48 55 50.06 49.94 55.9
Industrial Production 0.70
percent
0.99 1.19 1.25 1.27 1
Industrial Production Mom 0.30
percent
-0.14 0.2 0.08 0.1 0.5
Capacity Utilization 81.10
percent
80.9 81.6 80.96 80.96 81.5
Changes in Inventories 11633.00
ZAR Million
8299 7991 5404 7153 6416
Bankruptcies 154.00
Companies
156 157 157 157 157
Total Vehicle Sales 47881.00
43788 45591 45274 45179 45235
Car Registrations 32108.00
27691 28794 28584 28577 28589
Leading Economic Index 1.10
percent
0.4 0.7 0.3 0.11 1
Internet Speed 6736.79
KBps
8355 8602 8843 9079 11179
IP Addresses 4274668.00
IP
4272995 4228378 4262815 4243350 4256417
Mining Production 2.80
percent
-1.41 0.6 -1.53 -1.6 1.2
Steel Production 547.40
Thousand Tonnes
541 537 536 536 536
Coincident Index 94.70
Index Points
93.93 93.92 93.91 93.92 93.92
Competitiveness Index 4.32
Points
4.32 4.32 4.34 4.39 4.37
Competitiveness Rank 61.00
61 61 62 52 63
Composite Pmi 49.30
51.2 50.5 49.95 49.95 49.95
Ease of Doing Business 82.00
72 71 86 87 69
Electricity Production 21915.00
Gigawatt-hour
21464 21076 21262 21498 21341
Corruption Index 43.00
Points
44 46 43 43 48
Corruption Rank 71.00
72 59 72 72 57
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 22.00
Index Points
17 18 10 8 1.6
Retail Sales MoM -1.20
percent
0.04 0.5 0.12 0.12 0.7
Retail Sales YoY 0.70
percent
1.66 1.9 1.58 1.57 2.2
Consumer Spending 1936072.00
ZAR Million
1924433 1961669 1967049 1915821 2034918
Disposable Personal Income 2868646.00
ZAR Million
2965725 2800000 3035351 3075238 3140000
Personal Savings -0.20
percent
0.03 -1.2 0 -0.02 0.2
Private Sector Credit 5.68
percent
7.9 5.89 5.57 5.57 3.11
Bank Lending Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 9.83 8.5
Gasoline Prices 1.21
USD/Liter
1.22 1.15 1.09 1.03 0.51
Households Debt To Gdp 33.10
percent of GDP
32.31 37 31.78 31.52 36
Households Debt To Income 71.90
percent
71.14 78 70.84 70.59 77
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 544.47
Index Points
593 521 600 603 530
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent
28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 43 42 40
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 2.00
percent
2 2 2 2 2
Social Security Rate For Companies 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 2
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 19.52
mm
16.73 51.95 65.57 38.24 40.13
Temperature 24.17
celsius
13.17 20.11 21.97 16.22 17.71