South Africa | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.50 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.8 2.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 27.70 27.5 28 27.8 27.2 24 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 5.10 4.5 4.7 5 5.1 5.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.75 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 5940.60 -6639 3004 1992 1332 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 51.70 52 54 54 54 53 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 13.53 13.64 13.5 13.37 13.23 11.71 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 8.77 8.74 8.82 8.91 9 9.95 percent [+]
Stock Market 57764.85 56500 56000 55400 54800 48500 points [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.50 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.8 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.10 1.2 1.1 0.8 2.9 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 294.84 360 278 275 271 420 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 3097941.40 3113825 3119416 3123806 3126895 3126051 ZAR Million [+]
Gross National Product 3078829.00 3087278 3089206 3089712 3089581 3078053 ZAR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 610160.00 606457 604522 602701 600943 585948 ZAR Million [+]
GDP per capita 7504.30 7417 7398 7378 7359 7156 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12260.20 12230 12223 12215 12208 12143 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 74142.00 75069 72145 69779 69086 61200 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 108975.00 108560 108312 108032 107688 103887 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 379277.00 380220 379956 379635 379125 375980 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 232402.00 233435 233605 233732 233961 240000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 474286.00 472816 472064 471305 470541 463556 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Services 622919.00 626100 627546 628694 629655 631970 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 264492.00 266426 267167 267793 268309 269335 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 64676.00 65216 65360 65461 65441 68800 ZAR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 27.70 27.5 28 27.8 27.2 24 percent [+]
Employed Persons 9617000.00 9576126 9563797 9552314 9540321 9020000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 6176.87 5800 6228 6167 6180 5140 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.90 60 60.2 60.2 59.58 61 percent [+]
Labour Costs 145.30 152 154 155 157 167 Index Points [+]
Wages 19170.00 19503 19686 19769 19819 19632 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 16680.00 16618 16674 16646 16609 16272 ZAR/Month [+]
Population 55.91 57 58 58 58 59.44 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60.58 60.58 60.58 60.58 60.47 [+]
Living Wage Family 10800.00 10689 10470 10655 10498 10587 ZAR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 7222.50 7025 7006 6993 6984 6962 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3650.00 3286 3261 3240 3224 3168 ZAR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 55.90 52.32 52.41 53.53 54.04 51.51 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 20100.00 19277 19228 19190 19161 19072 ZAR/Month [+]
Employment Rate 43.30 43.19 43.21 43.22 43.25 45.12 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 5.10 4.5 4.7 5 5.1 5.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.4 0.63 0.67 0.7 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.80 105 105 106 106 110 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 103.80 105 105 105 105 109 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.60 5.3 4.7 4.81 4.9 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 102.70 139 102 101 101 144 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.20 5.3 5.1 5.1 5 4.8 percent [+]
Export Prices 147.50 148 148 148 148 146 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 136.20 136 136 136 136 134 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 5.50 5.5 5.4 5.2 5 6 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 103.90 105 105 105 105 104 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 103.40 113 103 102 102 119 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.75 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.03 6.9 6.7 6.7 7.38 6.3 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 235288.00 234535 234399 234341 234286 233779 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1636260.00 1639089 1638679 1638221 1637761 1633630 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2644887.00 2676471 2682307 2683461 2683189 2675279 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3265446.00 3322006 3341892 3351835 3356396 3347673 ZAR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5009515.00 5035853 5037849 5036383 5033899 5007859 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 49384.00 49144 50350 50331 50269 50645 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3373455.00 3392155 3403895 3411938 3417218 3411106 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.17 6.6 8.03 8.12 8.21 5.4 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 9.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 741210.00 783000 741541 740795 740106 977000 ZAR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 5940.60 -6639 3004 1992 1332 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Exports 103377.00 90804 100436 100047 99790 99742 ZAR Million [+]
Imports 97436.10 97443 91900 91668 91425 101442 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account -110457.00 -89000 -99000 -102000 -94392 -159000 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.30 -3.2 -3.4 -3.4 -1.86 -3.1 percent [+]
External Debt 158533.00 153000 164179 164570 164625 166000 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1347125.00 1340509 1273100 1266900 1262100 1518528 [+]
Gold Reserves 125.25 127 128 128 129 131 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 3.53 2.42 2.18 1.93 1.69 1.99 [+]
Weapons Sales 59.00 60.74 57.49 57.79 58.09 58.4 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 2.00 4.07 5.14 6.1 6.98 11.79 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1830.00 1801 1798 1796 1793 1770 ZAR Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 51.70 52 54 54 54 53 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.90 -4.2 -3.62 -3.58 -3.53 -4.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -14552.00 26500 1056 -1951 -3547 32600 ZAR Million [+]
Government Spending 633268.00 671000 632115 631605 631217 697000 ZAR Million [+]
Government Revenues 103368.00 147236 105405 102194 99786 1512702 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt 63923.00 49500 67371 67527 67569 55800 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 117920.00 113502 124739 122368 118534 121440 ZAR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3424.40 3426 3427 3427 3428 3431 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 35.00 45 35.51 36.48 38.32 45 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 44.90 54.5 54.7 54.7 50.38 55.9 [+]
Industrial Production 1.50 1.9 0.91 1.01 1.05 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.30 -0.2 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.5 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.30 81.9 81.25 81.3 81.35 81.5 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 5340.00 4667 4483 4603 4972 5432 ZAR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 179.00 179 187 195 201 225 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 50320.00 48253 47896 47643 47289 44832 [+]
Car Registrations 33669.00 31461 31005 30511 30010 26773 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.10 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.11 1 percent [+]
Mining Production 6.90 0.5 0.28 0.05 -0.01 1.2 percent [+]
Steel Production 554.30 584 607 625 639 681 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Coincident Index 93.00 92.94 93.3 93.64 93.97 96.5 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.32 4.42 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.53 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 61.00 48 50 50 50 45 [+]
Composite Pmi 48.50 49.83 49.89 49.9 49.9 49.9 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 74.00 72 67 64 62 69 [+]
Electricity Production 22083.00 21829 21576 21338 21113 19635 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 45.00 45 46 46 46 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 64.00 60 62 62 62 57 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -9.00 -7 -5 -6 -4 1.6 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 2.40 0.8 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.7 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 5.50 2.2 4.14 4.18 4.2 2.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1884552.00 1894119 1900207 1904170 1907849 1918263 ZAR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2723157.00 2660000 2848646 2887559 2925855 3140000 ZAR Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.20 -1.8 0.22 0.41 0.44 0.2 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 5.98 7.51 7.77 8.66 9.45 3.11 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 10.25 10 10.66 10.89 11.11 8.5 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.01 0.95 0.98 0.98 0.97 1.26 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 34.30 37.5 34.13 34.18 34.25 36 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 74.40 78.5 70.15 69.45 68.76 77 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 544.47 517 613 621 628 530 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28.82 29.01 29.21 29.4 31.1 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 43.4 47.69 49.84 51.98 66.95 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 14 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 2.00 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.99 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 1.00 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.99 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]