South Africa - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.

Overview	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	-2.20	1.5	1.2	1.3	1.5	2	percent
Unemployment Rate	27.20	27.4	27.4	27.2	27.1	24	percent
Inflation Rate	4.60	4.8	4.9	5.7	5.7	5.4	percent
Interest Rate	6.50	6.5	6.75	6.75	6.75	7.5	percent
Balance of Trade	11999.00	6917	472	4988	4667	-1700	ZAR Million
Government Debt to GDP	53.10	54	54	55	55	56	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Currency	14.40	14.2	14.72	15.27	15.83	18.3
Government Bond 10Y	8.99 percent	9.1	9.37	9.64	9.92	11.14
Stock Market	57186.66 points	55487	53639	51854	50126	43775

GDP	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	-2.20 percent	1.5	1.2	1.3	1.5	2
GDP Annual Growth Rate	0.80 percent	1.3	1.7	1.6	0.8	2
GDP	349.42 USD Billion	390	390	405	405	420
GDP Constant Prices	3137110.10 ZAR Million	3153634	3210697	3187304	3140373	3330585
Gross National Product	3076397.00 ZAR Million	3105662	3182725	3125619	3105431	3301568
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	617115.60 ZAR Million	615126	632701	626989	620211	656326
GDP per capita	7524.51 USD	7562	7562	7640	7640	7700
GDP per capita PPP	12294.88 USD	12300	12300	12350	12350	12395
GDP From Agriculture	78966.90 ZAR Million	78647	86055	80230	72268	89269
GDP From Construction	108161.67 ZAR Million	109774	110525	109892	110282	114652
GDP From Manufacturing	383150.11 ZAR Million	387931	396139	389281	385032	410930
GDP From Mining	229121.66 ZAR Million	239380	239156	232788	236172	248086
GDP From Public Administration	480861.91 ZAR Million	480137	486843	488556	479534	505022
GDP From Services	640882.86 ZAR Million	639273	650000	651137	637156	674271
GDP From Transport	271183.77 ZAR Million	270476	275193	275523	270338	285469
GDP From Utilities	65132.85 ZAR Million	65110	66320	66175	66245	68797

LABOUR	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	27.20 percent	27.4	27.4	27.2	27.1	24
Employed Persons	9838000.00	9978000	10111000	10511000	10711000	11711000
Unemployed Persons	6100.00 Thousand	6570	6610	6037	6059	6670
Labor Force Participation Rate	59.10 percent	59.67	60.5	59.65	59.18	61
Labour Costs	148.30 Index Points	153	155	156	158	173
Wages	19858.00 ZAR/Month	20500	20500	20200	21612	21600
Wages in Manufacturing	17146.00 ZAR/Month	17600	17900	17100	18211	19000
Population	56.52 Million	58	58	59	59	60
Retirement Age Women	60.00	60	60	60	60	60
Retirement Age Men	60.00	60	60	60	60	60
Wages High Skilled	21300.00 ZAR/Month	21700	21700	22100	20101	23200
Wages Low Skilled	3950.00 ZAR/Month	4108	4108	4157	4073	4157
Youth Unemployment Rate	53.70 percent	52.24	51.44	52.18	53.07	51.51
Living Wage Family	10300.00 ZAR/Month	10400	10400	10500	10264	10630
Living Wage Individual	6460.00 ZAR/Month	6530	6530	6467	6466	6700
Employment Rate	43.10 percent	42.98	43.12	43.07	42.92	45.12

PRICES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Inflation Rate	4.60 percent	4.8	4.9	5.7	5.7	5.4
Inflation Rate Mom	0.40 percent	0.6	0.5	0.7	0.44	0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI	107.60 Index Points	109	110	112	114	122
Core Consumer Prices	107.10 Index Points	108	109	112	112	121
Core Inflation Rate	4.20 percent	4.5	4.6	5.2	5	5.3
Producer Prices	107.80 Index Points	110	112	111	114	124
Producer Prices Change	5.90 percent	6.2	6.4	6	5.8	5
Export Prices	149.00 Index Points	147	147	145	146	145
Import Prices	141.40 Index Points	141	140	140	140	140
Food Inflation	3.40 percent	4.2	4.9	5.3	5.3	5.2
Inflation Expectations	5.42 Percent	5.45	5.41	5.48	5.47	5.46
CPI Housing Utilities	106.00 Index Points	109	109	112	112	122
CPI Transportation	110.20 Index Points	108	112	111	116	124

MONEY	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Interest Rate	6.50 percent	6.5	6.75	6.75	6.75	7.5
Interbank Rate	7.02 percent	7.02	7.27	7.27	7.27	8.02
Money Supply M0	248450.00 ZAR Million	251040	254062	257101	260418	292765
Money Supply M1	1643044.00 ZAR Million	1640244	1636058	1635065	1633568	1632840
Money Supply M2	2703946.00 ZAR Million	2682429	2659587	2648259	2640025	2629310
Money Supply M3	3407237.00 ZAR Million	3442736	3477878	3512401	3546311	3854024
Banks Balance Sheet	5294383.00 ZAR Million	5235195	5288696	5341784	5394382	5894281
Foreign Exchange Reserves	50511.00 USD Million	50583	49544	50611	50612	50645
Loans to Private Sector	3550866.00 ZAR Million	3591760	3635609	3679636	3722905	4106129
Deposit Interest Rate	7.25 percent	7.25	7.5	7.5	7.5	8.25
Central Bank Balance Sheet	739906.00 ZAR Million	772724	813000	769771	769803	977000

TRADE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Balance of Trade	11999.00 ZAR Million	6917	472	4988	4667	-1700
Exports	110148.00 ZAR Million	103325	98513	101209	100906	99742
Imports	98148.00 ZAR Million	96408	98041	96222	96239	101442
Current Account	-229000.00 ZAR Million	-201185	-93000	-207234	-201661	-159000
Current Account to GDP	-2.50 percent	-2.3	-2.3	-2.7	-2.7	-3.2
External Debt	183239.00 USD Million	193318	158000	198531	200261	166000
Tourist Arrivals	1196107.00	1305700	1368527	1309100	1309200	1518528
Gold Reserves	125.30 Tonnes	125	125	125	125	125
Terrorism Index	4.09	4.51	4.64	4.91	5.18	5.45
Weapons Sales	74.00 USD Million	51.17	59.79	62.52	65.26	67.86
Crude Oil Production	2.00 BBL/D/1K	3	3	3	3	5
Foreign Direct Investment	1961.00 ZAR Billion	2022	2037	2041	2029	2028

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	53.10 percent	54	54	55	55	56
Government Budget	-4.60 percent of GDP	-4.1	-4.1	-3.8	-3.8	-3.5
Government Budget Value	35505.00 ZAR Million	3571	32327	-1137	17855	1391262
Government Spending	638476.00 ZAR Million	638234	647430	648692	637087	671605
Government Revenues	142336.00 ZAR Million	118889	149769	113556	132145	1512702
Government Debt	81061.00 USD Million	89034	51100	94674	96922	55800
Fiscal Expenditure	106831.00 ZAR Million	115318	117442	114693	114290	121440
Military Expenditure	3110.20 USD Million	3100	3081	3079	3078	3057

BUSINESS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Business Confidence	39.00 Index Points	43	49	49	50	51
Manufacturing PMI	51.50	50.48	55	50.06	49.94	55.9
Industrial Production	0.70 percent	0.99	1.19	1.25	1.27	1
Industrial Production Mom	0.30 percent	-0.14	0.2	0.08	0.1	0.5
Capacity Utilization	81.10 percent	80.9	81.6	80.96	80.96	81.5
Changes in Inventories	11633.00 ZAR Million	8299	7991	5404	7153	6416
Bankruptcies	154.00 Companies	156	157	157	157	157
Total Vehicle Sales	47881.00	43788	45591	45274	45179	45235
Car Registrations	32108.00	27691	28794	28584	28577	28589
Leading Economic Index	1.10 percent	0.4	0.7	0.3	0.11	1
Internet Speed	6736.79 KBps	8355	8602	8843	9079	11179
IP Addresses	4274668.00 IP	4272995	4228378	4262815	4243350	4256417
Mining Production	2.80 percent	-1.41	0.6	-1.53	-1.6	1.2
Steel Production	547.40 Thousand Tonnes	541	537	536	536	536
Coincident Index	94.70 Index Points	93.93	93.92	93.91	93.92	93.92
Competitiveness Index	4.32 Points	4.32	4.32	4.34	4.39	4.37
Competitiveness Rank	61.00	61	61	62	52	63
Composite Pmi	49.30	51.2	50.5	49.95	49.95	49.95
Ease of Doing Business	82.00	72	71	86	87	69
Electricity Production	21915.00 Gigawatt-hour	21464	21076	21262	21498	21341
Corruption Index	43.00 Points	44	46	43	43	48
Corruption Rank	71.00	72	59	72	72	57

CONSUMER	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	22.00 Index Points	17	18	10	8	1.6
Retail Sales MoM	-1.20 percent	0.04	0.5	0.12	0.12	0.7
Retail Sales YoY	0.70 percent	1.66	1.9	1.58	1.57	2.2
Consumer Spending	1936072.00 ZAR Million	1924433	1961669	1967049	1915821	2034918
Disposable Personal Income	2868646.00 ZAR Million	2965725	2800000	3035351	3075238	3140000
Personal Savings	-0.20 percent	0.03	-1.2	0	-0.02	0.2
Private Sector Credit	5.68 percent	7.9	5.89	5.57	5.57	3.11
Bank Lending Rate	10.00 percent	10	10	10	9.83	8.5
Gasoline Prices	1.21 USD/Liter	1.22	1.15	1.09	1.03	0.51
Households Debt To Gdp	33.10 percent of GDP	32.31	37	31.78	31.52	36
Households Debt To Income	71.90 percent	71.14	78	70.84	70.59	77

HOUSING	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Housing Index	544.47 Index Points	593	521	600	603	530

TAXES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	28.00 percent	28	28	28	28	28
Personal Income Tax Rate	45.00 percent	45	45	43	42	40
Sales Tax Rate	15.00 percent	15	15	15	15	15
Social Security Rate	2.00 percent	2	2	2	2	2
Social Security Rate For Companies	1.00 percent	1	1	1	1	2
Social Security Rate For Employees	1.00 percent	1	1	1	1	1

CLIMATE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Precipitation	19.52 mm	16.73	51.95	65.57	38.24	40.13
Temperature	24.17 celsius	13.17	20.11	21.97	16.22	17.71

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