South Africa | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.70 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.1 2.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 27.70 25.7 25 24.5 28.07 21 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 5.40 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7 7 7 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 5083.17 1116 -10265 -6639 4107 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 51.70 51.7 51.7 51.7 53.51 52 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 12.92 13.02 13.15 13.53 13.41 15.47 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 8.52 8.49 8.58 8.66 8.75 10.09 percent [+]
Stock Market 51503.52 50300 49800 48300 48800 40700 points [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.70 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.1 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00 0.8 1 1.2 1.1 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 314.57 360 360 360 290 420 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 3078342.70 3060000 3083690 3090673 3098524 3189747 ZAR Million [+]
Gross National Product 3062610.00 3083106 3090791 3109848 3112102 3152831 ZAR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 613858.30 612916 614467 613549 614552 614292 ZAR Million [+]
GDP per capita 7585.80 6090 7593 7583 7583 7576 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12393.26 12500 12392 12378 12376 12351 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 68830.07 70539 71033 69478 68747 61200 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 108963.88 109042 109006 108837 108873 108544 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 377900.60 378366 379899 382244 384043 398117 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 230019.40 225121 226474 228096 225319 240000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 475267.70 475342 475563 475690 475691 476308 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Services 619022.93 619844 621104 623076 625093 645849 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 263040.32 262005 261357 260452 259861 255641 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 63330.55 62990 63089 62908 62880 68800 ZAR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 27.70 25.7 25 24.5 28.07 21 percent [+]
Employed Persons 9690000.00 9716971 9709918 9740344 9728932 9020000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 6214.11 6095 5899 5800 6518 5140 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.50 59.9 59.8 60 60.2 61 percent [+]
Labour Costs 142.40 148 148 149 151 163 Index Points [+]
Wages 18502.00 18949 19170 19442 19657 22313 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 16830.00 16922 16890 17681 17531 19993 ZAR/Month [+]
Population 55.91 55.49 55.75 56.01 56.01 59.53 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 10800.00 11259 11343 11314 11324 11321 ZAR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 7222.50 7067 7027 7001 6985 6954 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3650.00 3359 3318 3286 3261 3168 ZAR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 50.90 52.17 51.5 51.81 51.67 51.51 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 20100.00 20463 20465 20465 20465 20465 ZAR/Month [+]
Employment Rate 43.74 43.76 43.92 44.04 44.09 45.12 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 5.40 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.45 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.70 103 104 106 107 110 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.30 103 104 105 106 109 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.80 5.8 5.7 5.3 4.16 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 101.60 135 137 139 102 144 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.60 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.8 percent [+]
Export Prices 146.80 147 147 147 147 148 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 135.50 134 134 133 133 134 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 6.90 8.4 8.2 8 7.9 7.1 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 100.90 101 103 104 105 118 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 103.00 114 114 113 102 119 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7 7 7 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.33 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.3 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 229240.00 230029 233835 237140 240283 274736 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1582113.00 1578963 1577991 1574172 1573720 1572317 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2573886.00 2601127 2634913 2666657 2698264 3025521 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3183170.00 3205612 3245605 3283848 3321824 3716473 ZAR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4915471.00 4955462 5013073 5071263 5128990 5732827 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47241.00 48610 48999 49144 47465 50645 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3318785.00 3346870 3388768 3429759 3469783 3852050 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.20 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.03 5.4 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.50 10.75 10.5 11 10.5 9.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 697303.00 738944 746720 783000 725318 977000 ZAR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 5083.17 1116 -10265 -6639 4107 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Exports 91777.60 93582 85456 90804 92826 99742 ZAR Million [+]
Imports 86694.40 92466 95721 97443 87264 101442 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account -91499.00 -95000 -105000 -89000 -99000 -159000 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.30 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.4 -3.1 percent [+]
External Debt 142833.00 145000 150000 153000 142765 166000 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1258642.00 1288695 1278553 1340509 1322679 1518528 [+]
Gold Reserves 125.25 125 125 125 125 125 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 3.53 2.91 2.67 2.42 2.18 1.99 [+]
Weapons Sales 59.00 67.06 32.86 60.74 23.54 26.03 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1873.00 1867 1866 1881 1878 1879 ZAR Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 51.70 51.7 51.7 51.7 53.51 52 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.90 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3.72 -4.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -39181.00 28300 -3870 26500 -13871 32600 ZAR Million [+]
Government Spending 633183.00 650000 657000 671000 642759 697000 ZAR Million [+]
Government Revenues 62857.00 127219 105214 147236 120951 1512702 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt 55247.00 47800 48100 49500 57185 55800 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 102039.00 110033 95432 113502 109349 121440 ZAR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3424.40 3432 3427 3422 3420 3419 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 29.00 41 42 45 27.38 45 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.50 53.7 54 54.5 54.7 55.9 [+]
Industrial Production -4.10 2.6 2 1.9 -3.07 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.30 0.9 0.7 -0.2 0.14 0.5 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.70 81.7 82.6 81.9 81.76 81.5 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 2749.00 511 679 2829 2989 5424 ZAR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 150.00 152 153 153 153 153 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 41783.00 43824 41457 42864 42661 42616 [+]
Car Registrations 26317.00 28312 30548 27379 27267 27246 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.90 0.5 0.2 0.4 -0.16 1 percent [+]
Mining Production 1.70 -0.5 0.4 0.5 0.07 1.2 percent [+]
Steel Production 560.50 545 541 538 538 537 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.47 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.49 4.53 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 47.00 48 48 48 45 45 [+]
Composite Pmi 50.20 50.49 50.58 50.53 50.55 50.54 [+]
Corruption Index 45.00 45 45 45 45 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 64.00 61 68 60 69 57 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 74.00 72 72 72 73 69 [+]
Electricity Production 20446.00 21465 20992 20697 20898 20940 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -10.00 -8 3 2.2 -9.98 1.6 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.30 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.08 0.7 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.50 1.4 1.8 2.2 0.84 2.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1865094.00 1866190 1864116 1860283 1859012 1847545 ZAR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2674938.00 2530000 2686922 2660000 2723769 3140000 ZAR Million [+]
Personal Savings -0.30 -1.5 -1.6 -1.8 -1.33 0.2 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 5.90 5.78 5.79 7.51 5.83 3.11 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 10.50 10.5 10 10 10.5 8.5 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.05 0.69 1.04 0.95 1.04 1.26 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 34.50 37.9 33.42 37.5 33 36 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 74.40 78.5 78.5 78.5 70.61 77 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 544.47 505 511 517 653 530 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28 29.84 30.51 30.08 29.16 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 41 43.4 43.4 51.98 66.95 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 14 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 2.00 2.5 2.25 2 2 2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 1.00 1.5 1.25 1 1 1 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]