South Africa - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.70 1 1.1 1.3 1.5 2 percent
Unemployment Rate 27.20 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.5 24 percent
Inflation Rate 4.90 4.8 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.4 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.75 6.75 6.75 7 7.75 percent
Balance of Trade 8794.70 472 3149 3257 3168 -1700 ZAR Million
Government Debt to GDP 53.10 54 55 55 55 56 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 14.23
 14.58 14.78 14.99 15.19 16.05
Government Bond 10Y 9.15
percent		 9.09 9.19 9.28 9.38 9.77
Stock Market 53032.45
points		 55104 54428 53759 53095 50531
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.70
percent		 1 1.1 1.3 1.5 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.40
percent		 1 1.2 1.3 1.5 2
GDP 349.42
USD Billion		 390 405 405 405 420
GDP Constant Prices 3132981.50
ZAR Million		 3192693 3178106 3173710 3190218 3318421
Gross National Product 3074870.00
ZAR Million		 3160818 3113314 3114843 3159554 3285291
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 615992.50
ZAR Million		 628346 624201 624000 622182 653090
GDP per capita 7524.51
USD		 7562 7640 7640 7640 7700
GDP per capita PPP 12294.88
USD		 12300 12350 12350 12350 12395
GDP From Agriculture 70244.51
ZAR Million		 85669 77486 71158 79531 61200
GDP From Construction 108776.67
ZAR Million		 109765 109470 110191 111033 114087
GDP From Manufacturing 382563.62
ZAR Million		 393412 387400 387537 392381 408905
GDP From Mining 231638.37
ZAR Million		 237510 231615 234650 242126 240000
GDP From Public Administration 480320.97
ZAR Million		 483493 486726 486565 485644 502532
GDP From Services 643923.33
ZAR Million		 645526 648573 652294 646606 670947
GDP From Transport 267778.61
ZAR Million		 273299 274438 271260 273578 284061
GDP From Utilities 65588.74
ZAR Million		 65864 66035 66441 65857 68800
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 27.20
percent		 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.5 24
Employed Persons 9748000.00
 10111000 10511000 10711000 9741889 11711000
Unemployed Persons 6100.00
Thousand 		6610 6037 6059 6079 6670
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.10
percent		 60.5 59.65 59.18 59.67 61
Labour Costs 150.80
Index Points		 155 157 159 160 175
Wages 20176.00
ZAR/Month		 20500 20200 21336 21703 21600
Wages in Manufacturing 17674.00
ZAR/Month		 17900 17100 18540 18799 19000
Population 57.73
Million		 58 59 59 59 60
Retirement Age Women 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Wages High Skilled 21300.00
ZAR/Month		 21700 22100 20101 20158 23200
Wages Low Skilled 3950.00
ZAR/Month		 4108 4157 4073 4055 4157
Youth Unemployment Rate 53.70
percent		 51.44 52.18 53.07 52.4 51.51
Living Wage Family 10300.00
ZAR/Month		 10400 10500 10500 10500 10630
Living Wage Individual 6460.00
ZAR/Month		 6530 6630 6630 6630 6700
Employment Rate 43.10
percent		 42.9 43 43.1 43.2 45.12
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.90
percent		 4.8 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.4
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10
percent		 0.5 0.7 0.43 0.43 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 108.40
Index Points		 110 110 114 115 121
Core Consumer Prices 107.70
Index Points		 109 112 113 114 109
Core Inflation Rate 4.20
percent		 4.4 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5
Producer Prices 109.20
Index Points		 112 112 115 117 125
Producer Prices Change 6.30
percent		 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.3 5
Export Prices 151.10
Index Points		 151 151 152 151 151
Import Prices 141.70
Index Points		 142 142 142 142 142
Food Inflation 3.50
percent		 3.8 4 4 3.6 5.2
Inflation Expectations 5.59
Percent		 5.58 5.65 5.66 5.63 5.63
CPI Housing Utilities 108.50
Index Points		 109 112 112 116 122
CPI Transportation 111.40
Index Points		 109 110 117 115 119
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent		 6.75 6.75 6.75 7 7.75
Interbank Rate 7.03
percent		 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.27 8.02
Money Supply M0 252611.00
ZAR Million		 254859 258187 261642 265003 294777
Money Supply M1 1719556.00
ZAR Million		 1740010 1746576 1749336 1751972 1753881
Money Supply M2 2834147.00
ZAR Million		 2889160 2912598 2927151 2937626 2950471
Money Supply M3 3509193.00
ZAR Million		 3580324 3636355 3691785 3746612 4214026
Banks Balance Sheet 5415790.00
ZAR Million		 5505427 5576995 5648201 5719009 6338814
Foreign Exchange Reserves 50394.00
USD Million		 49544 50495 50497 50497 50645
Loans to Private Sector 3607700.00
ZAR Million		 3682016 3739581 3795350 3849895 4296805
Deposit Interest Rate 7.25
percent		 7.5 6.4 7.5 7.75 5.4
Central Bank Balance Sheet 789151.00
ZAR Million		 813000 790452 790455 790455 977000
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 8794.70
ZAR Million		 472 3149 3257 3168 -1700
Exports 116883.30
ZAR Million		 98513 107457 107615 107519 99742
Imports 108088.60
ZAR Million		 98041 104309 104358 104351 101442
Current Account -163760.00
ZAR Million		 -93000 -185992 -178166 -192919 -159000
Current Account to GDP -2.50
percent		 -2.3 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -3.2
External Debt 170811.00
USD Million		 158000 167330 168186 167495 166000
Tourist Arrivals 1303293.00
 1368527 1249300 1239600 1247300 1518528
Gold Reserves 125.30
Tonnes		 125 125 125 125 125
Terrorism Index 4.09
 4.09 4.09 4.09 4.09 4.09
Weapons Sales 74.00
USD Million		 59.79 62.52 65.26 67.99 67.86
Crude Oil Production 2.00
BBL/D/1K		 3 3 3 2 5
Foreign Direct Investment 1863.00
ZAR Billion		 1821 1809 1811 1815 1816
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 53.10
percent		 54 55 55 55 56
Government Budget -4.60
percent of GDP		 -4.1 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.5
Government Budget Value -7476.00
ZAR Million		 32327 -3424 17136 -5282 1391262
Government Spending 639964.00
ZAR Million		 683000 646555 648284 645555 697000
Government Revenues 116226.00
ZAR Million		 149769 119368 136575 115804 1512702
Government Debt 70549.00
USD Million		 51100 69442 70788 70256 55800
Fiscal Expenditure 123702.00
ZAR Million		 117442 122792 119439 121086 121440
Military Expenditure 3110.20
USD Million		 3081 3079 3078 3076 3057
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 38.00
Index Points		 28 30 32 34 51
Manufacturing PMI 43.20
 46 47 49 51 54
Industrial Production 1.30
percent		 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1
Industrial Production Mom 0.10
percent		 0.2 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.5
Capacity Utilization 81.10
percent		 81.6 81.14 81.14 81.14 81.5
Changes in Inventories -14172.00
ZAR Million		 3436 -2301 2867 3708 5691
Bankruptcies 155.00
Companies		 156 155 155 155 155
Total Vehicle Sales 49670.00
 48325 48479 48548 48509 48517
Car Registrations 32786.00
 31752 31763 31838 31819 31821
Leading Economic Index -0.90
percent		 0.7 0.3 0.11 0.12 1
Internet Speed 6736.79
KBps		 8602 8843 9079 9310 11179
IP Addresses 4274668.00
IP		 4228378 4262815 4243350 4262056 4256417
Mining Production -5.20
percent		 0.6 -1.53 -1.6 -1.59 1.2
Steel Production 528.10
Thousand Tonnes		 531 531 531 532 532
Coincident Index 93.30
Index Points		 93.5 94 94.3 94.4 94
Competitiveness Index 4.32
Points		 4.32 4.32 4.32 4.32 4.32
Competitiveness Rank 61.00
 61 61 61 61 61
Composite Pmi 48.00
 50.5 50.7 50.9 51.1 52
Ease of Doing Business 82.00
 71 86 87 87 69
Electricity Production 21990.00
Gigawatt-hour		 21045 21261 21647 21485 21421
Corruption Index 43.00
Points		 43 43 43 43 43
Corruption Rank 71.00
 71 71 71 71 71
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 22.00
Index Points		 15 16 18 18 16
Retail Sales MoM 1.30
percent		 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7
Retail Sales YoY 1.30
percent		 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.2
Consumer Spending 1926959.00
ZAR Million		 1948167 1956710 1952009 1946507 2024886
Disposable Personal Income 2911510.00
ZAR Million		 2800000 3034503 3074299 3106438 3140000
Personal Savings 0.40
percent		 -1.2 0.22 0.19 0.18 0.2
Private Sector Credit 6.74
percent		 5.89 7.01 7.01 7.01 3.11
Bank Lending Rate 10.00
percent		 10 10 9.83 9.83 8.5
Gasoline Prices 1.14
USD/Liter		 1.25 1.23 0.93 0.87 1.26
Households Debt To Gdp 33.10
percent of GDP		 37 32.08 31.82 31.55 36
Households Debt To Income 71.90
percent		 78 70.84 70.59 70.33 77
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 544.47
Index Points		 521 600 603 605 530
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent		 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent		 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent		 15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 2.00
percent		 2 2 2 2 2
Social Security Rate For Companies 1.00
percent		 1 1 1 1 2
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent		 1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 19.52
mm		 51.95 65.57 38.24 38.25 40.13
Temperature 24.17
celsius		 20.11 21.97 16.22 19 17.71