South Africa Leading Index Rises for 2nd Month

The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa rose by 1.4% month-on-month in November 2025, accelerating from a 0.4% increase in the previous month. This marked the second consecutive monthly gain, as increases in eight of the ten available component time series outweighed decreases in the other two. The largest positive contributors were accelerations in the six-month smoothed growth rates of the real M1 money supply and job advertisement space. In contrast, the main negative contributors were a narrowing interest rate spread and a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the number of new passenger vehicles sold. Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator grew by 0.3% in October, following a 0.1% rise in the prior period, driven by increases in the industrial production index and the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. The lagging indicator declined by 0.4% in the same month.

The composite leading business cycle indicator in Africa rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October 2025, rebounding from a 1.2% fall in September, as increases in six of the ten available component time series outweighed the decreases in the remaining four. The largest positive contributions came from an increase in South Africa’s US-dollar-denominated export commodity price index and the improvement in the RMB/BER business confidence index. In contrast, the main negative contributors were a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 money supply and a narrowing of the interest rate spread. Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator edged up 0.1% in September, unchanged from the previous month, supported by gains in the industrial production index and employment in the formal non-agricultural sector. At the same time, the lagging indicator increased 0.8% in September.

The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa fell by 1.2% month-on-month in September 2025, reversing a 1.6% rise in August. This was the first decline since May and the steepest since December 2024, as decreases in four of the seven available component time series outweighed increases in the remaining three. The largest negative contributions came from a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved and a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales. In contrast, the main positive contributors were an increase in South Africa’s US-dollar-denominated export commodity price index and an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in real M1 money supply. Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator rose by 0.1% in August, helped by gains in the industrial production index and the real value of wholesale, retail and motor trade sales. The lagging indicator dropped by 0.9% in August.