New Zealand Business Sentiment Falls to 4-Month Low

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Outlook Index eased to 59.2 in February 2026 from 64.1 in the prior month, the lowest since last October, though sentiment remained solidly positive. Forward indicators softened, including export intentions (19.0 vs 20.4 in January), profit expectations (31.8 vs 32.9), pricing intentions (53.3 vs 56.5), and investment intentions (24.8 vs 28.3). Cost pressures intensified (79.4 vs 77.8), while credit availability fell sharply (7.5 vs 16.3). Employment intentions were broadly steady (22.3 vs 22.4), and wage growth expectations edged up (3.01% vs 2.82%). Firms’ own activity outlook was little changed (52.6 (51.6), while past activity weakened (23.4 vs 26.2). Inflation expectations rose to 2.93% from 2.77%, the highest since April 2024. Sector data were mixed, with residential construction intentions easing markedly (41.4 vs 58.8), while commercial construction remained subdued (45.6 vs 44.7).

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Outlook Index dropped to 64.1 in January from 73.6 in the prior month, marking its lowest level since October, though sentiment stayed firmly positive. Expected own activity eased (51.6 vs 60.9 in December, while past activity slipped (26.2 vs 29.3) but remained near its second-highest since August 2021. Forward-looking indicators softened: export intentions (20.4 vs 25.6), employment intentions (22.4 vs 27.5), and profit expectations (32.9 vs 42.7). Meanwhile, cost pressures intensified (77.8 vs 76.1) and credit availability tightened further (16.3 vs 28.4). At the same time, pricing intentions strengthened (56.5 vs 51.7), wage growth expectations edged up (2.82 vs 2.70), and investment intentions was stable (28.3 vs 28.1). Inflation expectations ticked higher (2.77% vs 2.69%). Sector trends diverged, with residential construction intentions improving (58.8 vs 54.8), while commercial construction slumped (44.7 vs 57.1).

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Outlook Index surged to 73.6 in December 2025 from 67.1 in the prior month, marking its highest level since March 1994, boosted by renewed confidence in an economic rebound, improving business outlook, and continued monetary easing. Expected own activity notched its highest level in three decades (60.9 vs 53.1 in November), and past own activity reached its strongest print since August 2021 (29.1 vs 21.3). Export intentions also strengthened (25.6 vs 23.2), as did employment intentions (27.5 vs 18.5), investment intentions (28.1 vs 19.9), profit expectations (42.7 vs 27.6), and pricing determination (51.7 vs 50.5). Wage growth expectations edged higher (2.70 vs 2.58) amid rising cost pressures (76.1 vs 73.8) and a drop from a record high in credit availability (28.4 vs 32.1). Inflation expectations remained stable (at 2.69%). In sectors, both residential construction intentions (54.8 vs 46.3) and commercial construction (57.1 vs 46.5) strengthened.