Japan Export Growth Beats Estimates

Japan's exports jumped 14.8% yoy to a near-record high of JPY 10,507.3 billion in April 2026, accelerating from 11.5% growth in the prior month while marking the fastest pace in three months and topping market forecasts of 9.3%. The result was supported by robust demand from China, the U.S., the ASEAN countries, and the EU.

Japan's exports rose 11.7% yoy to a record JPY 11,003.3 billion in March 2026, beating market forecasts of 11% and picking up from February’s 4.0% gain. This marked the seventh straight month of export growth, boosted by stronger shipments to key trading partners including China (17.7%), Hong Kong (7.6%), Taiwan (27.1%), ASEAN (19.7%), the EU (18.2%), and India (8.5%). Sales to the U.S. rose 3.4%, marking the first gain in four months as headwinds linked to tariffs imposed by President Trump eased. In contrast, shipments to Russia fell 9.4%, while exports to the Middle East plunged 45.9%, reflecting disruptions tied to the Iran war. Sales expanded for all components, including transport equipment (3.4%), notably motor vehicles and car; machinery (7.1%), led by semicon machinery; electrical machinery (21.5%), boosted by chips and IC; others (18.1%), driven by scientific, optical instruments; manufactured goods (12.7%), owing to non-ferrous metals; and chemicals, particularly plastics.

Japan’s exports rose 4.2% yoy to JPY 9,571.6 billion in February 2026, slowing sharply from a 16.8% surge in the previous month and marking the weakest growth since last October, amid softer demand from China and the U.S. Still, sales extended their growth streak to a sixth month, beating market forecasts of a 1.6% increase. Shipments were mainly higher to Hong Kong (32.3%), Taiwan (6.2%), ASEAN countries (5.1%), the EU (14.0%), India (22.4%), Australia (8.5%), Russia (65.9%), and the Middle East (27.1%). In contrast, shipments fell to China (-10.9%) and South Korea (-2.5%). Exports to the U.S. also slipped 8.0%, steeper than a 5.1% drop in January, due to weakness in automobiles, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals, reflecting headwinds from President Trump's tariffs on a wide range of Japanese goods. Economists expect export recovery to stay modest amid slowing global activity, with Middle East tensions and higher oil prices adding downside risks.