Japan Export Growth at 4-Month Low

Japan's exports rose 11.7% yoy to a record JPY 11,003.3 billion in March 2026, beating market forecasts of 11% and picking up from February’s 4.0% gain. This marked the seventh straight month of export growth, boosted by stronger shipments to key trading partners including China (17.7%), Hong Kong (7.6%), Taiwan (27.1%), ASEAN (19.7%), the EU (18.2%), and India (8.5%). Sales to the U.S. rose 3.4%, marking the first gain in four months as headwinds linked to tariffs imposed by President Trump eased. In contrast, shipments to Russia fell 9.4%, while exports to the Middle East plunged 45.9%, reflecting disruptions tied to the Iran war. Sales expanded for all components, including transport equipment (3.4%), notably motor vehicles and car; machinery (7.1%), led by semicon machinery; electrical machinery (21.5%), boosted by chips and IC; others (18.1%), driven by scientific, optical instruments; manufactured goods (12.7%), owing to non-ferrous metals; and chemicals, particularly plastics.

Japan’s exports rose 4.2% yoy to JPY 9,571.6 billion in February 2026, slowing sharply from a 16.8% surge in the previous month and marking the weakest growth since last October, amid softer demand from China and the U.S. Still, sales extended their growth streak to a sixth month, beating market forecasts of a 1.6% increase. Shipments were mainly higher to Hong Kong (32.3%), Taiwan (6.2%), ASEAN countries (5.1%), the EU (14.0%), India (22.4%), Australia (8.5%), Russia (65.9%), and the Middle East (27.1%). In contrast, shipments fell to China (-10.9%) and South Korea (-2.5%). Exports to the U.S. also slipped 8.0%, steeper than a 5.1% drop in January, due to weakness in automobiles, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals, reflecting headwinds from President Trump's tariffs on a wide range of Japanese goods. Economists expect export recovery to stay modest amid slowing global activity, with Middle East tensions and higher oil prices adding downside risks.

Japan’s exports surged 16.8% year on year to JPY 9,187.5 billion, sharply picking up from a 5.1% growth in the previous month and marking the fastest pace since November 2022. The latest reading also exceeded market forecasts of 12%, boosted by robust demand ahead of the Lunar New Year from China (32%) and other Asian markets, including Hong Kong (73.1%), Taiwan (35.3%), South Korea (10.8%), ASEAN countries (9.3%), and Vietnam (30.6%). Sales also expanded to India (9.2%), Australia (9.6%), the EU (29.6%), Russia (53.4%), and Germany (30%). In contrast, shipments to the U.S. fell 5%, due to weakness in pharmaceuticals, metal processing machinery, and autos, following an 11.1% plunge in December. After a sharp hit from U.S. tariffs in Q3 2025, Japan’s exports have begun to recover following the September deal with Washington that imposed a uniform 15% tariff on most goods. Still, the rebound remains fragile amid lingering global uncertainty.