Romania's retail trade rose by 5.1 percent year-on-year in October 2018, following an upwardly revised 3.3 percent gain in the previous month. It was the highest growth rate since June, as sales increased faster for all categories: automotive fuel (8.3 percent from 2.6 percent in September); food, beverages and tobacco (5.8 percent from 4.9 percent), and non-food products (3.1 percent from 2.6 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade went up by 1.3 percent, after an upwardly revised 1.6 percent rise in September. Retail Sales YoY in Romania averaged 7.54 percent from 2001 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 32.90 percent in May of 2006 and a record low of -16.20 percent in June of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Romania is expected to be 3.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Romania to stand at 0.82 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Romania Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.