Japan Nominal Wage Growth Holds Above 3%

Average cash earnings in Japan increased by 3.2% yoy in May 2026, slowing from an upwardly revised 3.6% rise in April and coming in below market forecasts of 3.4%. Still, it marked the 53rd consecutive month of nominal wage growth and remained above 3% for a fourth month, the longest such streak since 1992. Earnings rose across all sectors, including construction (5.2%), manufacturing (3.8%), mining (6.3%), utilities (2.1%), information and communications (2.4%), transport and postal services (3.4%), wholesale and retail trade (4.7%), finance and insurance (7.1%), real estate (3.3%), the food industry (1.2%), and education (0.8%). Base pay grew 3%, following a revised 3.3% in April. Inflation-adjusted real wages climbed 1.4% yoy in May, marking a fifth straight month of increases and easing from an upwardly revised 2.0% rise in April, the longest stretch of gains in four years. Last month, the BoJ said steady wage and price increases are a prerequisite for another rate hike.

Average cash earnings in Japan grew by 3.5% yoy in April 2026, accelerating from an upwardly revised 3.1% rise in the previous month and surpassing market forecasts of 3.2%. It was the 52nd straight month of growth in nominal wages and the fastest pace since December 2024. Earnings rose across all sectors, including construction (4.3%), manufacturing (4.5%), mining & quarrying (1.1%), utilities (4.5%), information and communications (5.6%), transport and postal services (7.2%), wholesale and retail trade (2.8%), finance and insurance (11.2%), real estate (1.2%), the food industry (1.8%), and education (2.4%). Base pay increased 3.4%, unchanged from a revised figure in March. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted real wages rose 1.9% yoy in April, marking a fourth straight month of increase and accelerating from an upwardly revised 1.4% gain in the previous month. This was the longest stretch of gains in four years and fueled speculation that the BoJ may raise interest rates this month.

Average cash earnings in Japan rose by 2.7% yoy in March 2025, slowing from a marginally revised 3.4% gain in the previous month and missing market forecasts of 3.2%. It was the 51st straight month of growth in nominal wages, but the mildest pace since December, amid caution about uneven domestic demand and rising external risks. Earnings rose for construction (9.6%), manufacturing (2.9%), utilities (1.7%), information (4.0%), transport & postal services (2.9%), wholesale & retail trade (2.4%), finance & insurance (7.6%), and real estate (1.9%). In contrast, they fell for mining & quarrying (-0.7%), the food industry (-7.4%), and education (-0.1%). Base pay increased 1.9%, easing from a marginally revised 3.4% gain and pointing to the softest rise in three months. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted real wages grew 1% yoy in March, a third straight month of increase, moderating from a revised 2% gain in February.