Japan Machinery Orders Exceed Forecast in Sept

Japan’s core machinery orders fell 11% month-on-month to ¥883.9 billion in November 2025, reversing a 7% gain in October and marking the steepest drop since April 2020. The decline was far worse than market expectations for a 5.1% fall. Manufacturing orders slid 10.8% to ¥398.2 billion, while non-manufacturing orders dropped 10.7% to ¥492.9 billion. By industry, the sharpest contractions were seen in non-ferrous metals (-66.6%), iron and steel (-37.9%), textile mill products (-33.4%), finance and insurance (-32.6%), and mining, quarrying of stone and gravel (-32.1%). On a year-on-year basis, private-sector orders fell 6.4%, reversing from a 12.5% increase in October and missing forecasts for a 4.9% gain. Core machinery orders are widely viewed as a volatile but key leading indicator of capital expenditure over the next six to nine months.

Japan’s core machinery orders, which exclude volatile sectors such as ships and electric power, jumped 7% month-over-month to ¥992.9 billion in October 2025, accelerating from a 4.2% gain in September and defying market expectations for a 2.3% decline. The October reading was also the highest since March. The gain was driven by a sharp rebound in the non-manufacturing sector, where orders surged 28.8% to ¥551.7 billion. In contrast, manufacturing orders fell 13.3% to ¥446.5 billion. By industry, the strongest increases were recorded in information services (103.4%), goods leasing (984.7%), transportation and postal activities (47.9%), telecommunications (44.8%), and textile mill products (35.9%). On a year-on-year basis, private-sector orders increased 12.5% in October, up from an 11.6% gain in September and well above forecasts of 3.6%. Core machinery orders are widely viewed as a key, albeit volatile, leading indicator of capital expenditure over the next six to nine months.

Japan’s core machinery orders, which exclude volatile sectors such as ships and electric power, jumped 4.2% month-over-month to ¥927.8 billion in September 2025, reversing from a 0.9% fall in August and exceeding market expectations for a 2.5% gain. The increase was led by the manufacturing sector, which jumped 23.3% to ¥515.2 billion, while non-manufacturing orders fell 8.7% to ¥428.3 billion. By industry, the largest advances came from chemical and chemical products (388.9%), pulp, paper and paper products (84.5%), other transport equipment (40.7%), mining and quarrying of stone and gravel (40.4%), and general-purpose and production machinery (29.7%). On an annual basis, private-sector orders grew 11.6% in September, accelerating from a 1.6% gain in August and beating forecasts of 5.4%. Core machinery orders are seen as a key yet volatile leading indicator of capital expenditure over the coming six to nine months.