Japan Imports Unexpectedly Rise

Japan’s imports rose 5.3% year-on-year in December 2025, reaching an 11-month high of JPY 10,305.8 billion. The latest figure outpaced market expectations of 3.6% and sharply accelerated from November’s modest 1.3% gain. It also marked the fastest growth in purchases since January, underscoring robust year-end domestic demand fueled by Tokyo’s sweeping stimulus package, the largest since the pandemic and the first unveiled under the Takaichi administration. Imports grew for most components, including electrical machinery (22.7%), other goods (13.3%), machinery (9.2%), chemicals (16.6%), and manufactured goods. In contrast, mineral fuel purchases fell 12.5%, dragged by drops in petroleum (-8.6%) and LNG (-6.7%). Imports expanded from China (14.7%), the U.S. (9.2%), Hong Kong (7.5%), Taiwan (18.7%), Vietnam (19.6%), the ASEAN countries (5.8%), Russia (1.9%), the EU (21.6%), and South Africa (12.2%), but fell from South Korea (-6.7%), Australia (-16.0%) and the Middle East (-10.8%).

Japan’s imports increased 1.3% year-on-year to JPY 9,392.4 billion in November 2025, signaling the third straight monthly growth but below market estimates of 2.5%. The latest print followed a 0.7% rise in October, reflecting subdued domestic demand and lingering cost pressures, despite Tokyo’s JPY 21.3 trillion stimulus package, the largest since the pandemic and the first under the Takaichi administration, which includes winter energy subsidies starting January 2026. Also, Japanese firms continue to face 15% tariffs despite a September U.S.–Japan trade deal. Mineral fuel purchases fell 13.4%, led by drops in petroleum (-2.4%) and LNG (-17.7%), while imports of electrical machinery (4.0%), machinery (12.3%), and other goods (14.2%) grew. Purchases rose from China (2.3%), the U.S. (7.1%), Taiwan (22.7%), Vietnam (14.5%), ASEAN countries (3.4%), and the EU (6.8%), but fell from Hong Kong (-17.1%), South Korea (-9.7%), Australia (-16.0%), Russia (-15.8%), and the Middle East (-10.4%).

Japan’s imports increased 0.7% year-on-year to a nine-month high of JPY 9,998.1 billion in October 2025, beating market expectations for a 0.7% decline and marking a second straight month of growth, reflecting front-loaded purchases ahead of winter. However, the latest increase was much softer than September’s 3% rise as cost pressures lingered and firms grew more selective with procurement heading into year-end. Imports rose from China (0.8%), the U.S. (20.9%), Hong Kong (10.8%), Taiwan (9.5%), and the ASEAN countries (2.5%), but fell from the EU (-9.0%), and Russia (-2.1%), Australia (-7.4%) and the Middle East (-6.3%). Despite the September trade deal with the U.S. Japanese firms still face 15% tariffs, potentially knock-on effects for wages and confidence. To ease household burdens, Tokyo is preparing a JPY 21.3 trillion stimulus package, the largest since the pandemic, which includes new winter energy bill subsidies set to begin in January 2026.