Japan 10-Year Yield Rises on BOJ Rate Hike Bets

2026-07-23 03:33 By Erika Ordonez 1 min. read

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to around 2.76% on Thursday, rising for a third consecutive session as expectations for faster Bank of Japan rate hikes strengthened.

Reports that BOJ officials were open to faster policy tightening lifted the broader JGB curve, with swap markets pricing around an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike to 1.25% in October, up from around 70% previously.

The yen remained near a four-decade low against the dollar, while rising oil prices amid escalating US-Iran tensions added to inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the BOJ will continue normalizing policy.

Policymakers have remained alert to upside price risks from a weaker yen and higher fuel costs.

Meanwhile, Japan’s 2-year government bond yield climbed to a 31-year high of 1.49% as investors further adjusted expectations for the BOJ’s rate path, while rising US Treasury yields also weighed on Japanese bonds.



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Japan 10-Year Yield Rises on BOJ Rate Hike Bets
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to around 2.76% on Thursday, rising for a third consecutive session as expectations for faster Bank of Japan rate hikes strengthened. Reports that BOJ officials were open to faster policy tightening lifted the broader JGB curve, with swap markets pricing around an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike to 1.25% in October, up from around 70% previously. The yen remained near a four-decade low against the dollar, while rising oil prices amid escalating US-Iran tensions added to inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the BOJ will continue normalizing policy. Policymakers have remained alert to upside price risks from a weaker yen and higher fuel costs. Meanwhile, Japan’s 2-year government bond yield climbed to a 31-year high of 1.49% as investors further adjusted expectations for the BOJ’s rate path, while rising US Treasury yields also weighed on Japanese bonds.
2026-07-23
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