Japan Q1 GDP Growth Beats Estimates

Japan’s GDP grew 0.5% qoq in Q1 2026, accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in Q4 and topping market forecasts of 0.4%, flash data showed. It was the strongest quarterly expansion since Q3 2024, amid a pickup in private consumption (0.3% vs flat reading in Q4), reflecting easing inflation pressures and steady wage growth. Public investment also rose for the first time in three quarters (1.4% vs -0.2%), helped by higher infrastructure spending. Net trade added positively, with exports accelerating sharply (1.7% vs 0.2%) on stronger overseas demand for autos and tech products, while imports rose at a much slower 0.5% (vs flat reading). Simultaneously, government spending growth was muted (0.1% vs 0.4%), and business investment increased more slowly (0.3% vs 1.4%), linked to elevated interest rates and softer corporate sentiment. Looking ahead, growth may remain subdued for the rest of the year as the Middle East conflict clouds the future path.

Japan’s GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q4 2025, higher than the flash estimate of 0.1% and in line with market expectations. The reading followed a 0.7% contraction in Q3, amid upward revisions to private consumption, business investment, and government spending. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy, was revised up to a 0.3% increase (vs 0.1% in an earlier estimate and after 0.5% growth in Q3), partly supported by Tokyo’s fiscal measures aimed at easing cost-of-living pressures. Business investment was also adjusted sharply higher to 1.2% (vs 0.2% previously, after flat growth in Q3), pointing to stronger corporate spending on capacity and equipment. Government spending rose 0.4% (vs 0.1% in the flash reading, after 0.1% in Q3), reflecting continued fiscal support. Meanwhile, net trade made no contribution to growth, as both exports (-0.3% vs -1.4%) and imports (-0.3% vs -0.1%) declined, partly due to softer external demand and weaker domestic import needs.

Japan’s GDP grew 0.1% qoq in Q4 2025, rebounding from a 0.7% drop in Q3 but missing market forecasts of a 0.4% increase, flash data showed. While business investment recovered (0.2% vs -0.3% in Q3), private consumption rose the least in a year (0.1% vs 0.4) amid persistent cost pressures, notably food prices. Meanwhile, government spending was subdued (0.1% vs 0.1%), and net trade did not contribute to growth, with both exports (-0.3% vs -1.4%) and imports (-0.3% vs -0.1%) declining. The latest reading suggests the drag from U.S. tariffs, with a baseline of 15%, is gradually easing, while diplomatic tensions with China persist. It also comes as Tokyo prepares to ramp up investment through targeted public spending following a sweeping election victory.