The Bank of Japan's policy rate stands at 1.25%. Interest rate futures price an implied rate of 1.22% at the 30 October 2026 decision, 3 basis points below the current level. Markets assign a 12% probability to a cut, 88% to no change and 0% to a hike, with 1.25% the single most likely outcome at 88%.
Trading Economics Implied Policy Rates are measures of how financial markets price future central bank policy decisions. Trading Economics derives market-implied forward curves by combining interest rate futures prices, tied to representative short-term benchmark rates, with scheduled decision dates from its economic calendar. The difference between the implied rate following a policy meeting and the prevailing policy rate reflects the expected basis-point move. Based on this expected change, the market-implied probability of rate adjustments are derived for each upcoming central bank meetings.