Japan Current Account Surplus Beats Estimates

Japan’s current account surplus stood at JPY 3,932.7 billion in February 2026, little changed from JPY 3,938.4 billion a year earlier but exceeding market expectations of JPY 3,549 billion. The latest figure marked the largest surplus since September, supported mainly by stronger income flows despite weaker trade dynamics. The goods account surplus narrowed sharply to JPY 267.6 billion from JPY 809.9 billion in the prior year, as export growth (2.8%) lagged behind a faster rise in imports (9.7%). Meanwhile, the primary income surplus widened to JPY 4,240.3 billion from JPY 3,798.6 billion, remaining the key driver of the overall surplus. The services account deficit was broadly stable at JPY 284.5 billion (vs JPY 285.7 billion), while the secondary income deficit narrowed to JPY 290.8 billion from JPY 384.4 billion.

Japan’s current account surplus jumped to JPY 942.6 billion in January 2026 from JPY 344.6 billion in the same month a year earlier, though it came in slightly less than market forecasts for a gain of JPY 960 billion. The improvement was largely driven by a sharp narrowing in the goods account deficit, which shrank to JPY 600.4 billion from JPY 2,934.0 billion a year earlier, as exports surged 20.5% while imports declined 7.7%, reflecting softer energy import costs and resilient external demand. However, other components were less supportive. The primary income surplus, mainly earnings from overseas investments, fell to JPY 2,746.6 billion from JPY 3,520.0 billion, while the secondary income deficit widened slightly to JPY 489.3 billion from JPY 440.8 billion. Meanwhile, the services account deficit expanded sharply to JPY 715.3 billion from JPY 498.8 billion, partly reflecting stronger outbound travel and payments for foreign services.

Japan’s current account surplus fell to JPY 728.8 billion in December 2025 from JPY 1,071.8 billion in the same month a year earlier, falling short of market forecasts of JPY 1,060 billion. The primary income surplus inched lower to JPY 1,189.4 billion from 1,248.9 billion while the secondary income deficit edged higher to JPY 255.4 billion from JPY 242.3 billion. At the same time, the services account shifted to a deficit of JPY 340.1 billion from a small surplus of JPY 0.11 billion. In contrast, the surplus of goods account surged to JPY 134.9 billion from JPY 0.54 billion in the previous year, as exports (4.5%) rose faster than imports (3.7%).