The ECB keep rates on hold on July 25th with the main refinancing rate remaining at 0 and the deposit rate at -0.4 percent, but changed its forward guidance to say that it expects rates to remain “at their present or lower levels” at least through the first half of 2020. The bank has also pointed that is already making preparations for more quantitative easing as it "tasked the relevant Eurosystem Committees with examining options". Interest Rate in the Euro Area averaged 1.92 percent from 1998 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 4.75 percent in October of 2000 and a record low of 0 percent in March of 2016.

Interest Rate in Euro Area is expected to be 0.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Euro Area to stand at 0.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Interest Rate is projected to trend around 0.25 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Euro Area Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-03-07 12:45 PM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0%
2019-04-10 11:45 AM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0%
2019-06-06 11:45 AM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0%
2019-07-25 11:45 AM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0%
2019-08-22 11:30 AM ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
2019-09-12 11:45 AM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0%
2019-09-12 12:30 PM ECB Press Conference



ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged but Hints at Future Action

The ECB said it will keep interest rates at their present or lower levels at least through the first half of 2020 during its July meeting, amid concerns about global growth and inflation outlook. The central bank also said it is preparing options for more policy easing, suggesting a rate cut and more bond buying are on the table as soon as September.

Excerpts from the ECB introductory statement:

Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present or lower levels at least through the first half of 2020, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to our aim over the medium term.

We intend to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme for an extended period of time past the date when we start raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

The Governing Council also underlined the need for a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy for a prolonged period of time, as inflation rates, both realised and projected, have been persistently below levels that are in line with its aim. Accordingly, if the medium-term inflation outlook continues to fall short of our aim, the Governing Council is determined to act, in line with its commitment to symmetry in the inflation aim. It therefore stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner.

In this context, we have tasked the relevant Eurosystem Committees with examining options, including ways to reinforce our forward guidance on policy rates, mitigating measures, such as the design of a tiered system for reserve remuneration, and options for the size and composition of potential new net asset purchases.

Incoming information since the last Governing Council meeting in early June indicates that, while further employment gains and increasing wages continue to underpin the resilience of the economy, softening global growth dynamics and weak international trade are still weighing on the euro area outlook. Moreover, the prolonged presence of uncertainties, related to geopolitical factors, the rising threat of protectionism, and vulnerabilities in emerging markets, is dampening economic sentiment, notably in the manufacturing sector. In this environment, inflationary pressures remain muted and indicators of inflation expectations have declined. Therefore, a significant degree of monetary stimulus continues to be necessary to ensure that financial conditions remain very favourable and support the euro area expansion, the ongoing build-up of domestic price pressures and, thus, headline inflation developments over the medium term.

Our monetary policy measures, including the forthcoming new series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III), will help to safeguard favourable bank lending conditions and will continue to support access to financing, in particular for small and medium-sized enterprises.

To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed that an ample degree of monetary accommodation is still necessary for the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.


ECB | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
7/25/2019 1:18:24 PM



Euro Area Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 0.00 0.00 4.75 0.00 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 8606082.00 8551370.00 8606082.00 444116.00 EUR Million [+]
Interbank Rate -0.44 -0.44 5.39 -0.44 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 12055405.00 12010866.00 12055405.00 1070365.00 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 12679647.00 12639106.00 12679647.00 1097239.00 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 73.27 70.31 73.27 34.91 USD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4688182.00 4684376.00 4708899.00 692641.00 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 11289475.00 11257373.00 11289475.00 3241298.00 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.40 -0.40 3.75 -0.40 percent [+]
Lending Rate 0.25 0.25 5.75 0.25 percent [+]
Loan Growth 3.30 3.30 9.90 -0.40 percent [+]


Euro Area Interest Rate

In the Euro Area, benchmark interest rate is set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability which is to keep inflation below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term. In times of prolonged low inflation and low interest rates, ECB may also adopt non-standard monetary policy measures, such as asset purchase programmes. The official interest rate is the Main refinancing operations rate. . This page provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Euro Area Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on August of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.00 0.00 4.75 0.00 1998 - 2019 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 74.97 Aug/19
Turkey 19.75 Jul/19
Mexico 8.00 Aug/19
Russia 7.25 Jul/19
South Africa 6.50 Jul/19
Brazil 6.00 Jul/19
Indonesia 5.75 Jul/19
India 5.40 Aug/19
China 4.35 Jul/19
Saudi Arabia 2.75 Aug/19
United States 2.25 Jul/19
Singapore 1.94 Jul/19
Canada 1.75 Aug/19
South Korea 1.50 Jul/19
Australia 1.00 Aug/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Aug/19
Euro Area 0.00 Jul/19
France 0.00 Jul/19
Germany 0.00 Jul/19
Italy 0.00 Jul/19
Netherlands 0.00 Jul/19
Spain 0.00 Jul/19
Japan -0.10 Aug/19
Switzerland -0.75 Jun/19


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