China Q3 GDP Growth Beats Estimates

China’s economy grew 4.5% yoy in Q3 2026, accelerating from Q2’s three-year low of 4.3% and beating market expectations of 4.4%. Growth was supported by recent policy easing and resilient exports, particularly of AI-related components, high-tech manufactured goods and electric vehicles. September activity also strengthened, with industrial output and retail sales posting their fastest growth in six months, partly reflecting the boost from the Golden Week holiday period. For the first nine months of 2026, the economy expanded 4.6% from the same period in 2025, within the lower end of the government’s full-year growth target of 4.5%-5.0%. The National Bureau of Statistics said the domestic economy continued to develop so far this year, with key indicators improving and progress in high-quality growth. However, it warned that the volatile international environment and persistently weak domestic demand remain challenges, requiring further efforts to sustain the recovery.

China's economy expanded 4.3% year-on-year in Q2 2026, slowing from 5.0% in Q1 and missing market expectations of 4.5%. It marked the weakest annual growth since Q4 2022, as soft domestic demand, subdued private investment, and the prolonged property downturn outweighed continued support from resilient AI-related exports. The latest reading also fell below the lower end of Beijing's 4-1/2%–5.0% annual growth target, underscoring the uneven recovery and reinforcing expectations of further policy support. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement that external uncertainties remained elevated, while the economy continued to face an imbalance between robust supply and weak demand. For the first half of 2026, GDP grew 4.7%. Deputy NBS head Mao Shengyong noted that the economy remained "within an appropriate range" and demonstrated "strong resilience," supported by high-tech and equipment manufacturing, while the services sector continued to post solid growth.

China’s economy expanded 5.0% yoy in Q1 2026, accelerating from 4.5% in Q4 and beating forecasts of 4.8%. It marked the fastest annual growth in three quarters, supported largely by resilient export performance, although Beijing braces for potential fallout from the Iran conflict. So far, the economy has managed to absorb the shock with limited disruption, amid ample oil reserves, a diversified energy mix, and state controls that help contain price volatility. However, the underlying momentum appeared uneven in March, as industrial output rose more than expected, but retail sales growth missed estimates. Exports slowed sharply in the month, while imports surged. Meantime, fixed-asset investment in the January to March period continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Despite the stronger start, economists expect China’s growth momentum to weaken over the rest of the year, weighed down by mounting external headwinds, particularly if the Middle East crisis is prolonged.