China Q2 GDP Growth Weakest Since 2022

China's economy expanded 4.3% year-on-year in Q2 2026, slowing from 5.0% in Q1 and missing market expectations of 4.5%. It marked the weakest annual growth since Q4 2022, as soft domestic demand, subdued private investment, and the prolonged property downturn outweighed continued support from resilient AI-related exports. The latest reading also fell below the lower end of Beijing's 4-1/2%–5.0% annual growth target, underscoring the uneven recovery and reinforcing expectations of further policy support. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement that external uncertainties remained elevated, while the economy continued to face an imbalance between robust supply and weak demand. For the first half of 2026, GDP grew 4.7%. Deputy NBS head Mao Shengyong noted that the economy remained "within an appropriate range" and demonstrated "strong resilience," supported by high-tech and equipment manufacturing, while the services sector continued to post solid growth.

China’s economy expanded 5.0% yoy in Q1 2026, accelerating from 4.5% in Q4 and beating forecasts of 4.8%. It marked the fastest annual growth in three quarters, supported largely by resilient export performance, although Beijing braces for potential fallout from the Iran conflict. So far, the economy has managed to absorb the shock with limited disruption, amid ample oil reserves, a diversified energy mix, and state controls that help contain price volatility. However, the underlying momentum appeared uneven in March, as industrial output rose more than expected, but retail sales growth missed estimates. Exports slowed sharply in the month, while imports surged. Meantime, fixed-asset investment in the January to March period continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Despite the stronger start, economists expect China’s growth momentum to weaken over the rest of the year, weighed down by mounting external headwinds, particularly if the Middle East crisis is prolonged.

China’s economy expanded 4.5% yoy in Q4 2025, slowing from 4.8% in Q3 and marking the weakest rise in three years. The latest result came as December retail sales grew at their slowest rate in three years, weighed down by a prolonged property slump and deflationary pressures despite ongoing consumer subsidies. Meantime, the jobless rate stood at 5.1% for the third straight month while industrial output growth accelerated. Still, full-year growth reached 5%, in line with Beijing’s target and unchanged from 2024, helped by a record-high trade surplus as strong exports to non-U.S. markets helped offset tariff pressure and weaker fixed investment. China’s statistics agency noted the economy withstood multiple pressures and maintained a steady, progressive trend in 2025, following December’s pledge by leaders to sustain a proactive fiscal stance to spur activity. However, growth prospects in 2026 remain clouded by rising protectionism and unpredictable U.S. policies under President Trump.