China Manufacturing Growth Beats Estimates

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI inched down to 50.3 in April 2026 from March’s 12-month high of 50.4, but surpassed expectations of 50.1. This marked the second consecutive month of expansion, though at a softer pace, supported by stronger government spending earlier in the year. Output growth accelerated to the fastest pace in four months (51.5 vs 51.4 in March), while new orders eased (50.6 vs 51.6). External demand also strengthened, with new export orders rebounding (50.3 vs 49.1). Buying activity grew at the fastest pace in four months (51.1 vs 50.9), while employment remained in contraction (48.8 vs 48.6), and supplier delivery times stayed below the threshold (49.5 vs 49.5). Meanwhile, prices continued to rise, with both input costs (63.7 vs 63.9) and output prices (55.1 vs 55.4) easing. Business confidence improved to a four-month high (54.5 vs 53.2).

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March 2026 from 49.0 in February and exceeded expectations of 50.1. This marked the strongest reading since March last year and a rebound after two months of contraction, supported by stronger government spending early in the year and resilient exports driven by AI-related global demand. Output growth accelerated (51.4 vs 49.6 in February), while new orders rebounded sharply (51.6 vs 48.6). External demand also strengthened, with new export orders rising (49.1 vs 45.0). Buying activity increased (50.9 vs 48.2), while employment remained in contraction (48.6 vs 48.0), and supplier delivery times stayed below the threshold (49.5 vs 49.1). Meanwhile, prices surged, with both input costs (63.9 vs 54.8) and output prices (55.4 vs 50.6) hitting their highest levels in four years, driven by soaring crude prices and non-ferrous metals. Business confidence eased slightly (53.4 vs 53.2) but remained optimistic.

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in February 2026 from 49.3 in the previous month, slightly below market forecasts of 49.1 and marking the lowest print since October. It also represented the second straight month of contraction in factory activity, partly weighed by disruptions from the week-long Spring Festival holiday. New orders fell further (48.6 vs 49.2 in January), with foreign sales dropping more sharply (45.0 vs 47.8), highlighting persistent weakness in external demand. Buying levels also eased (48.2 vs 48.7), while employment remained subdued (48.0 vs 48.1). Supplier delivery times shortened (49.1 vs 50.1), suggesting improved logistics conditions. On the cost side, input prices rose for a seventh straight month, though the pace of increase moderated (54.8 vs 56.1). Output prices were unchanged (50.6 vs 50.6). Finally, business confidence rebounded from a six-month low to 53.2 (vs 52.6), indicating slightly improved sentiment despite ongoing contraction.