China Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Pace in a Year

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March 2026 from 49.0 in February and exceeded expectations of 50.1. This marked the strongest reading since March last year and a rebound after two months of contraction, supported by stronger government spending early in the year and resilient exports driven by AI-related global demand. Output growth accelerated (51.4 vs 49.6 in February), while new orders rebounded sharply (51.6 vs 48.6). External demand also strengthened, with new export orders rising (49.1 vs 45.0). Buying activity increased (50.9 vs 48.2), while employment remained in contraction (48.6 vs 48.0), and supplier delivery times stayed below the threshold (49.5 vs 49.1). Meanwhile, prices surged, with both input costs (63.9 vs 54.8) and output prices (55.4 vs 50.6) hitting their highest levels in four years, driven by soaring crude prices and non-ferrous metals. Business confidence eased slightly (53.4 vs 53.2) but remained optimistic.

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in February 2026 from 49.3 in the previous month, slightly below market forecasts of 49.1 and marking the lowest print since October. It also represented the second straight month of contraction in factory activity, partly weighed by disruptions from the week-long Spring Festival holiday. New orders fell further (48.6 vs 49.2 in January), with foreign sales dropping more sharply (45.0 vs 47.8), highlighting persistent weakness in external demand. Buying levels also eased (48.2 vs 48.7), while employment remained subdued (48.0 vs 48.1). Supplier delivery times shortened (49.1 vs 50.1), suggesting improved logistics conditions. On the cost side, input prices rose for a seventh straight month, though the pace of increase moderated (54.8 vs 56.1). Output prices were unchanged (50.6 vs 50.6). Finally, business confidence rebounded from a six-month low to 53.2 (vs 52.6), indicating slightly improved sentiment despite ongoing contraction.

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in January 2026 from 50.1 in the previous month, missing market estimates of 50. The latest reading signaled a loss of momentum in factory activity at the start of the year, as subdued demand conditions and cautious business sentiment continued to weigh amid ongoing structural headwinds. New orders slipped back into contraction (49.2 vs 50.8 in December), alongside a slowdown in output growth (50.6 vs 51.7). Foreign sales weakened further (47.8 vs 49.0), employment remained soft (48.1 vs 48.2), and purchasing activity declined sharply (48.7 vs 51.1). Simultaneously, delivery times were broadly unchanged (50.1 vs 50.2). On the cost front, input prices rose for a sixth consecutive month, with the pace of increase accelerating notably (56.1 vs 53.1). Selling prices returned to expansion (50.6 vs 48.9), ending a prolonged period of decrease. Finally, business confidence dropped to a six-month low (52.6 vs 55.5).