China Manufacturing Shrinks the Most in 6 Months

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in February 2026 from 49.3 in the previous month, slightly below market forecasts of 49.1 and marking the lowest print since October. It also represented the second straight month of contraction in factory activity, partly weighed by disruptions from the week-long Spring Festival holiday. New orders fell further (48.6 vs 49.2 in January), with foreign sales dropping more sharply (45.0 vs 47.8), highlighting persistent weakness in external demand. Buying levels also eased (48.2 vs 48.7), while employment remained subdued (48.0 vs 48.1). Supplier delivery times shortened (49.1 vs 50.1), suggesting improved logistics conditions. On the cost side, input prices rose for a seventh straight month, though the pace of increase moderated (54.8 vs 56.1). Output prices were unchanged (50.6 vs 50.6). Finally, business confidence rebounded from a six-month low to 53.2 (vs 52.6), indicating slightly improved sentiment despite ongoing contraction.

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in January 2026 from 50.1 in the previous month, missing market estimates of 50. The latest reading signaled a loss of momentum in factory activity at the start of the year, as subdued demand conditions and cautious business sentiment continued to weigh amid ongoing structural headwinds. New orders slipped back into contraction (49.2 vs 50.8 in December), alongside a slowdown in output growth (50.6 vs 51.7). Foreign sales weakened further (47.8 vs 49.0), employment remained soft (48.1 vs 48.2), and purchasing activity declined sharply (48.7 vs 51.1). Simultaneously, delivery times were broadly unchanged (50.1 vs 50.2). On the cost front, input prices rose for a sixth consecutive month, with the pace of increase accelerating notably (56.1 vs 53.1). Selling prices returned to expansion (50.6 vs 48.9), ending a prolonged period of decrease. Finally, business confidence dropped to a six-month low (52.6 vs 55.5).

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.1 in December 2025, surpassing both November’s reading and expectations of 49.2. It marked the first expansion in factory activity since March, with output (51.7 vs 50.0 in November) and purchasing activity (51.1 vs 49.5) both growing for the first time in three months, amid the government's efforts to boost demand. At the same time, new orders rose for the first time since June and at the fastest pace in nine months (50.8 vs 49.2), while foreign sales fell at the slowest pace in nine months (49.0 vs 47.6). Meanwhile, employment remained weak (48.2 vs 48.4), and delivery times were broadly steady (50.2 vs 50.1). On the inflation front, input costs rose for the sixth consecutive month, albeit at a softer rate (53.1 vs 53.6). Selling prices continued to fall, though at the slowest rate in four months (48.9 vs 48.2). Looking ahead, business confidence improved (55.5 vs 53.1)