China Trade Surplus Beats Estimates

China’s trade surplus stood at USD 213.62 billion in the first two months of 2026, exceeding market expectations of USD 196.6 billion and following a record surplus of USD 1.189 trillion in 2025. Exports surged 21.8% yoy to USD 656.58 billion, accelerating sharply from a 6.6% rise in December and far surpassing forecasts of 7.1%. The jump marked the fastest growth in shipments since October 2021, boosted by firm global demand and a strong start to the year. Meanwhile, imports climbed 19.8% to USD 442.96 billion, well above expectations of 6.3% and quickening from 5.7% in December. It was the strongest pace of purchases since early 2022, reflecting solid domestic demand during the festive season. China merges January–February trade data to smooth distortions from shifting Lunar New Year timing, which typically disrupts activity. Trade balances are likely to draw attention ahead of a planned visit by U.S. President Trump to Beijing at the end of March for talks with Xi Jinping.

China posted a record USD 1.189 trillion trade surplus in 2025, with exports rising 5.5% while imports were flat. Faced with Trump's tariffs, Chinese exporters shifted production away from the US market and toward alternative destinations, particularly the EU and Southeast Asia. In December alone, the surplus reached USD 114.1 billion, marking the seventh time monthly surpluses exceeded USD 100 billion last year. Exports grew by 6.6% yoy, after a 5.9% in November, surpassing expectations of 3.0% growth, marking the fastest pace since September, driven by a surge in exports to non-US markets, as governments have sought to diversify export destinations since Trump’s victory in the November 2024 presidential election and to deepen trade ties with ASEAN and the EU. Meanwhile, imports rose 5.7% yoy, beating expectations of 0.9% and marking the fastest pace in six months. China’s trade surplus with the US fell to USD 23.25 billion in December, down from USD 23.74 billion in November.

China’s trade surplus topped a record $1 trillion in the first 11 months of the year despite a deepening slump in shipments to the US with exports rising 5.4% while imports shrank 0.6%. In November alone, the surplus reached $112 billion, the third-largest on record and well above expectations, as exports rose more than imports. Exports increased 5.9% yoy, beating forecasts for 3.8% growth and rebounding from a 1.1% fall in October, boosted by a surge in shipments to non-US markets amid governments’ efforts to diversify export destinations since Trump won last November's presidential election and to deepen trade ties with ASEAN and the EU. Meanwhile, shipments to the US slumped by 28.6%, marking the 8th straight month of double-digit declines. Imports rose 1.9%, below expectations for a 2.8% rise but above the 1.0% gain in October. China’s trade surplus with the US fell to USD 23.74 billion in November, down from USD 24.76 billion in October.