China Trade Surplus Smallest in Over a Year

China’s trade surplus narrowed to $51.13 billion in March 2026, the smallest since February 2025 and well below market expectations of $112 billion. Export growth slowed sharply to 2.5%, down from February’s 39.6% surge and missing forecasts of 8.3%, due to seasonal factors, including a delayed Lunar New Year, and a high base effect from March 2025’s tariff-driven export boom, rather than weakening global demand. Meanwhile, imports soared 27.8% year-on-year to a record $269.90 billion, the steepest rise since November 2021, surpassing expectations of 11.1%. This surge reflects China’s push to secure resources amid supply chain disruptions and elevated costs tied to the Iran conflict, as well as a jump in high-tech purchases like semiconductors. The trade surplus with the US stood at $16.8 billion in March. For Q1 2026, China’s trade surplus reached $264.75 billion, down from $271.09 billion in Q1 2025, with exports up 14.7% and imports rising 22.7%.

China’s trade surplus stood at USD 213.62 billion in the first two months of 2026, exceeding market expectations of USD 196.6 billion and following a record surplus of USD 1.189 trillion in 2025. Exports surged 21.8% yoy to USD 656.58 billion, accelerating sharply from a 6.6% rise in December and far surpassing forecasts of 7.1%. The jump marked the fastest growth in shipments since October 2021, boosted by firm global demand and a strong start to the year. Meanwhile, imports climbed 19.8% to USD 442.96 billion, well above expectations of 6.3% and quickening from 5.7% in December. It was the strongest pace of purchases since early 2022, reflecting solid domestic demand during the festive season. China merges January–February trade data to smooth distortions from shifting Lunar New Year timing, which typically disrupts activity. Trade balances are likely to draw attention ahead of a planned visit by U.S. President Trump to Beijing at the end of March for talks with Xi Jinping.

China posted a record USD 1.189 trillion trade surplus in 2025, with exports rising 5.5% while imports were flat. Faced with Trump's tariffs, Chinese exporters shifted production away from the US market and toward alternative destinations, particularly the EU and Southeast Asia. In December alone, the surplus reached USD 114.1 billion, marking the seventh time monthly surpluses exceeded USD 100 billion last year. Exports grew by 6.6% yoy, after a 5.9% in November, surpassing expectations of 3.0% growth, marking the fastest pace since September, driven by a surge in exports to non-US markets, as governments have sought to diversify export destinations since Trump’s victory in the November 2024 presidential election and to deepen trade ties with ASEAN and the EU. Meanwhile, imports rose 5.7% yoy, beating expectations of 0.9% and marking the fastest pace in six months. China’s trade surplus with the US fell to USD 23.25 billion in December, down from USD 23.74 billion in November.