Tokyo Core Inflation Tops Expectations in October

2025-10-30 23:37 By Jam Kaimo Samonte 1 min. read

Core consumer prices in Tokyo’s Ku-area rose 2.8% year-on-year in October 2025, picking up from a 2.5% gain in the previous two months and surpassing market forecasts of 2.6%.

The reading remained well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, reinforcing expectations of a gradual shift toward tighter policy.

At its October meeting, the BOJ left interest rates unchanged at 0.5% as expected, with the decision passing by a 7–2 vote as board members Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata again pushed for a hike to 0.75%.

The central bank reiterated that it would proceed with policy normalization once its economic and price targets are achieved.

Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that the economy continues to recover moderately but warned that uncertainties in global trade policy could dampen growth and corporate earnings.

Tokyo’s inflation data are closely watched as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends.



News Stream
Tokyo Core Inflation Slows to 16-Month Low
Core consumer prices in Tokyo’s central wards increased 1.8% year-on-year in February 2026, easing from a 2% rise in January and marking the softest pace since October 2024. Inflation in Japan’s capital slowed for a third straight month, though it slightly exceeded market expectations of 1.7%. Even so, the February reading fell below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, suggesting limited urgency for the central bank to tighten policy in the near term. The Japanese government nominated two reflation-leaning academics to the BOJ’s policy board, reinforcing expectations that policymakers will move cautiously on further rate hikes. However, hawkish board member Hajime Takata reiterated the need for additional rate increases and for forward guidance to reflect that the price stability target is close to being achieved. Governor Kazuo Ueda also reportedly indicated that the central bank will carefully assess incoming economic data at its March and April meetings before making any rate decisions.
2026-02-26
Tokyo Core Inflation Slows More Than Expected
Core consumer prices in Tokyo’s central wards rose 2% year-on-year in January 2026, down from a 2.3% increase in December and below market expectations of 2.2%. The reading marked the lowest level since October 2024 and aligned with the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will remain cautious on further rate hikes. The BOJ has repeatedly signaled that it is ready to raise borrowing costs if economic and price trends meet forecasts. The central bank raised its policy rate to a 30-year high of 0.75% in December, before keeping it unchanged in January.
2026-01-29
Tokyo Core Inflation Below Forecasts
Core consumer prices in Tokyo’s Ku-area rose 2.3% year-on-year in December 2025, easing from 2.8% in the previous month and undershooting market forecasts of 2.5%. The latest reading marked the lowest figure since February but remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, underscoring persistent price pressures in the capital. While Tokyo's headline inflation softened to a more than one-year low of 2% in December, core forces remain firm, reinforcing expectations of a cautious policy path. Governor Kazuo Ueda said this week that underlying price growth is gradually accelerating toward the BoJ’s goal, signaling readiness to tighten further. His remarks followed last week’s rate hike to 0.75%, a 30-year peak, marking another step in unwinding Japan’s decades-long era of ultra-loose policy and near-zero borrowing costs.
2025-12-25