BoJ Open to More Tightening If Outlook Holds: Governor Ueda

Further interest rate hikes will be necessary to complete Japan’s monetary policy normalization, central bank board member Kazuyuki Masu said in a speech on Friday. Masu noted that raising rates would help reduce the policy divergence between Japan and other major economies, a gap widely seen as a key driver of prolonged yen weakness that has pushed up import costs for businesses and households. Masu stressed that policy tightening must be handled carefully. He said timely and appropriate rate hikes are needed to keep underlying inflation below 2%, while warning against raising rates too aggressively in a way that could disrupt the gradual upward trend in wages and inflation. The speech was Masu’s first public appearance since joining the Bank of Japan’s nine-member board last July, when he characterized his stance as balanced between hawkish and dovish views.

The Bank of Japan’s risk of falling behind the curve has not increased markedly, a summary of opinions at its January meeting showed. Still, careful and timely policy execution is seen as increasingly vital. With real interest rates still deeply negative, and assuming the central bank’s outlook for activity and prices holds, further rate hikes are considered appropriate. The board is gauging each move’s impact on growth, inflation, and financial conditions, pursuing gradual tightening, though policy remains highly accommodative amid yen weakness Underlying inflation has moved closer to the 2% target, supporting the case for continued adjustments. Looking ahead, shifts in overseas rate environments could heighten the risk of lagging policy. Japan’s real policy rate remains the lowest globally, and forex markets’ sensitivity to rate differentials underscores the need to narrow the gap. Yen weakness and rising yields largely reflect fundamentals, leaving timely hikes as the key response.

The Bank of Japan’s December minutes showed board members favored continued rate hikes if the outlook for growth and prices holds, while keeping an overall accommodative stance. They judged the economy had recovered moderately, though manufacturing profits faced pressure from U.S. tariffs. Still, the impact had not spread broadly to investment, jobs, or wages. Exports and industrial output were seen as flat, while private consumption remained resilient, supported by income and employment gains, though higher prices weighed somewhat. On inflation, most members expected core CPI to slow below 2% through the first half of fiscal 2026 as food costs ease and government measures curb price pressures. They agreed financial conditions would stay accommodative even with a 0.75% policy rate, noting real rates remain deeply negative. Most stressed policies should be decided on a meeting-by-meeting basis, without a preset pace, based on careful assessment of economic, price, and financial trends.