Japan 10-Year Yield Falls on Haven Demand

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield dropped below 2.1% on Monday, hitting a seven-week low as escalating Middle East tensions boosted demand for safe-haven bonds. The US and Israel carried out military strikes on Iran over the weekend that resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran retaliated by targeting US assets across the region, raising concerns of a broader conflict. Investors also continued to weigh the outlook for Bank of Japan monetary policy after the government nominated two reflationist academics to the central bank’s policy board, while PM Sanae Takaichi reportedly voiced concerns about additional rate hikes during a meeting with Governor Kazuo Ueda. BOJ officials pushed back, with Ueda stating that economic data would be carefully evaluated at the March and April meetings before any rate decisions, leaving the door open for a near-term hike.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 2.13% on Friday, ending a three-day advance amid uncertainty over Bank of Japan policy. Earlier this week, the Japanese government appointed two reflationist academics to the BOJ’s policy board, while Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reportedly expressed concerns about further rate hikes during a meeting with Governor Kazuo Ueda last week. Hawkish board member Hajime Takata reiterated calls for additional rate increases and guidance signaling that the price stability target is nearly achieved. Governor Ueda also reportedly said the central bank would carefully evaluate economic data at its March and April meetings before making rate decisions, leaving the possibility of a near-term hike open. On the data front, Tokyo’s inflation slowed to the lowest pace in over a year, as government utility subsidies helped curb household energy costs, bolstering expectations that the BOJ may delay immediate rate increases.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 2.16% on Thursday, marking a third consecutive session of gains as hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan supported domestic yields. Board member Hajime Takata, regarded as the most hawkish member, called for further rate hikes and for guidance reflecting that the price stability target is nearly met. Governor Kazuo Ueda also reportedly said the central bank will carefully review economic data at its March and April meetings before deciding on rate adjustments, leaving the door open for a near-term hike. These developments followed the government’s nomination of two reflationist academics to the BOJ policy board, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will proceed cautiously with further tightening. The moves steepened the yield curve, with long-term yields rising at the fastest pace in a month.