Japan Core Inflation Surpasses Expectations in April

Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, rose 1.6% year-on-year in February 2026, slowing for a third straight month and coming in below forecasts of 1.7%. That was also the smallest gain since March 2022. The government has taken steps to ease living costs and stabilize food prices, though higher energy prices stemming from the Iran war risk pushing inflation higher in March. The latest reading came in well below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, offering little impetus to adjust monetary policy settings. Last week, the central bank kept its policy rate steady at 0.75% as expected, but signaled a bias toward further tightening to counter inflationary pressures from rising oil prices. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda added that a rate increase remains possible if the economic slowdown linked to the Iran conflict proves temporary.

Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, rose 2% year-on-year in January 2026, cooling from 2.4% in December and marking the weakest pace of growth in two years. The reading was in line with market expectations and aligned with the inflation target of the Bank of Japan, suggesting no immediate need to adjust monetary policy settings. The BOJ has indicated that price growth is likely to moderate further, partly due to additional government measures such as utility subsidies, as well as base effects from price surges a year earlier. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi rolled out fiscal initiatives aimed at alleviating cost-of-living pressures, including proposals to suspend the 8% tax on food and reduce gasoline taxes. Nonetheless, authorities emphasized that they remain focused on underlying inflation trends rather than temporary or one-off factors.

Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, rose 2.4% year on year in December 2025, easing from 3% in November and marking the weakest pace since October 2024. The reading was in line with market expectations and comes ahead of the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision, where policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged after December’s hike. Even so, markets continue to price in another rate increase later this year, potentially as early as June. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly stated that the central bank remains prepared to tighten policy further if economic activity and inflation evolve in line with its projections. However, the outlook has become more complex after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election to consolidate power and advance expansionary fiscal measures, including a proposal to cut the 8% sales tax on food, which has heightened concerns about Japan’s fiscal trajectory.