German Bunds on Track for Second Weekly Selloff

2026-03-13 09:28 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield climbed to 2.96%, its highest level since October 2023 and on track for its second consecutive weekly rise, as escalating Middle East tensions fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations for further European Central Bank rate hikes.

Oil prices continued their upward trajectory despite recent efforts to ease the energy supply shock, as investors remain skeptical that these measures will fully offset disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The surge in energy costs has led money markets to price in two ECB rate hikes this year, a sharp reversal from last month when no moves were expected.

Attention is now focused on the ECB’s upcoming policy meeting, where President Christine Lagarde is expected to outline how the bank plans to protect the eurozone from inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict.

Earlier this week, she stressed that the ECB would act to prevent a repeat of the inflation shocks seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.



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2026-03-13
German Bunds on Track for Second Weekly Selloff
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield climbed to 2.96%, its highest level since October 2023 and on track for its second consecutive weekly rise, as escalating Middle East tensions fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations for further European Central Bank rate hikes. Oil prices continued their upward trajectory despite recent efforts to ease the energy supply shock, as investors remain skeptical that these measures will fully offset disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The surge in energy costs has led money markets to price in two ECB rate hikes this year, a sharp reversal from last month when no moves were expected. Attention is now focused on the ECB’s upcoming policy meeting, where President Christine Lagarde is expected to outline how the bank plans to protect the eurozone from inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict. Earlier this week, she stressed that the ECB would act to prevent a repeat of the inflation shocks seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
2026-03-13
German Bund Yield Hits 2023 High on Inflation Fears
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose to 2.95%, its highest level since October 2023, as escalating tensions in the Middle East intensified inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of further interest rate hikes. Oil prices extended their rally, briefly surpassing $100 per barrel after Iran increased attacks on oil and transportation infrastructure across the region. The International Energy Agency’s announcement of a 400-million-barrel release from strategic reserves offered little immediate relief to markets, as the additional supply may take weeks or even months to reach buyers. Against this backdrop, money markets are now fully pricing in a European Central Bank rate hike by July, with an 85% probability of a second increase by December. This represents a significant shift from late February, before the outbreak of the Iran war, when traders had assigned roughly a 40% chance that the ECB would cut rates before year-end.
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