Italian BTP Yields Rise on ECB Rate Hike Bets

2026-03-13 09:32 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield climbed toward 3.8%, reaching its highest level since April 2025, as escalating tensions in the Middle East stoked inflation concerns and strengthened expectations for further European Central Bank rate hikes.

Oil prices continued to rise despite recent efforts to ease the energy supply shock, with investors skeptical that these measures will fully mitigate potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The surge in energy costs has prompted money markets to price in two ECB rate hikes this year, a sharp turnaround from last month, when no moves were anticipated.

Market attention is now focused on the ECB’s upcoming policy meeting, where President Christine Lagarde is expected to signal how the bank intends to shield the eurozone from inflationary pressures arising from the conflict.

Earlier this week, she emphasized that the ECB would act to prevent a repeat of the inflation shocks experienced after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.



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