Euro Area Retail Sales YoY  Forecast


Euro Area Retail Sales YoY
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Retail Sales YoY in Euro Area is expected to be 2.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Euro Area to stand at 2.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.


Euro Area Consumer Last Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 0.1 0.5 -2.2 -2 -2.4 -6.3
Retail Sales MoM -1.1 0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.2 1
Retail Sales YoY 0.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.7
Consumer Spending 1410 1440 1450 1460 1470 1600
Disposable Personal Income 1709550 1710000 1720000 1730000 1740000 1820000
Personal Savings 12.06 11.1 11 11 10.9 10.5
Private Sector Credit 13056906 13600000 13800000 13900000 14100000 15400000
Bank Lending Rate 2.16 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.2
Consumer Credit 648726 667000 674000 686000 692000 732000
Economic Optimism Index 115 113 112 112 112 108
Households Debt To Gdp 58.1 58.2 57 57 57 53.7
Households Debt To Income 93.55 91.9 90.5 90.5 90.5 87.1
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions -5.3 -3.81 -5.95 -8.53 -11.1 -23
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations -0.5 -2.31 -4.22 -5.82 -7.08 -10.83
Consumer Confidence Financial Expectations -0.7 -0.94 -1.12 -1.28 -1.43 -2.25
Consumer Confidence Major Purchases Expectations -17.3 -17.65 -17.68 -17.7 -17.72 -17.88
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 16 12 12.5 12.4 12.3 10.7
Consumer Confidence Savings Expectations -3.5 -4.54 -4.83 -5.11 -5.36 -7.02
Consumer Confidence Unemployment Expectations 0.6 6.37 10.55 14.08 16.86 24.66