Eurozone Inflation Expectations Unchanged in November

2026-01-08 09:15 By Agna Gabriel 1 min. read

Median consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone over the next year held at 2.8% in November 2025, while expectations three and five years ahead remained anchored at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively.

Uncertainty around near-term inflation also showed little change.

Lower-income households continued to report slightly higher perceived inflation and short-term expectations than higher-income groups, a pattern seen since 2023, though trends across income levels remain broadly aligned.

Younger consumers reported lower inflation expectations than older age groups.

Beyond prices, households became more cautious about the outlook: expectations for spending growth declined and views on economic growth turned more negative.

At the same time, expectations for unemployment eased slightly, while forecasts for house price growth and mortgage rates over the next year fell.



News Stream
Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations at 4-Month High
Median expectations for price growth over the next 12 months in the Euro Area edged up to 3.1% in September 2026, the most in four months, compared to 3% in August. Consumers also expect the price of their home to increase by 3.5% over the next 12 months, higher than 3.4% in August. Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time remained unchanged at 4.9%. Meanwhile, median expectations for inflation three years ahead and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5% respectively. Elsewhere, expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% from 1% and expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreased to -1.5% from -1.2% in August. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11.3% from 11%.
2026-10-23
Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations Edge Up
Median expectations for price growth over the next 12 months in the Euro Area increased to 3% in August 2026 from 2.9%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead also increased, to 2.9% from 2.7%, while the five-year outlook went up to 2.5% from 2.4%. Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased, but remained higher than the level prevailing before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. Lower-income households continued to perceive and anticipate higher inflation than higher-income groups, while younger consumers maintained more moderate expectations than older respondents. Also, expectations for nominal income growth were unchanged at 1%. Those for economic growth remained at -1.2% while expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead decreased to 11% from 11.2%. In addition, consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.4% over the next 12 months and mortgage interest rates to increase 4.9%, the same as in July.
2026-09-18
Euro Area Inflation Expectations Fall for 3rd Month
Median expectations for price growth over the next 12 months in the Euro Area eased to 2.9% in July 2026 from 3% in June. Expectations for inflation three years ahead also declined, to 2.7% from 2.8%, while the five-year outlook remained unchanged at 2.4%. However, uncertainty surrounding near-term inflation expectations remained elevated compared with levels seen before the Middle East conflict. Lower-income households continued to perceive and anticipate higher inflation than higher-income groups, while younger consumers maintained more moderate expectations than older respondents. Expected nominal income growth over the next year edged down to 1%, while spending-growth expectations held steady at 3.6%. Consumers also became slightly less pessimistic about economic activity, with expected growth improving to -1.2% from -1.4%. Meanwhile, home-price growth expectations were stronger among lower-income households, averaging 4%, compared with 3.1% among the highest-income group.
2026-08-21