Eurozone Inflation Expectations Steady Short-Term

Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months were unchanged at 2.8% in December 2025. By contrast, expectations over longer horizons edged higher: three-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.6% from 2.5%, while five-year-ahead expectations increased to 2.4% from 2.2%. Uncertainty around inflation expectations for the next 12 months also remained unchanged in December. Respondents in the lowest income quintiles continued to report slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-term expectations than those in higher income groups, consistent with a trend observed since 2023. Despite this gap, inflation perceptions and expectations evolved in broadly similar ways across income categories. Younger respondents (18–34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older groups (35–54 and 55–70).

Median consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone over the next year held at 2.8% in November 2025, while expectations three and five years ahead remained anchored at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. Uncertainty around near-term inflation also showed little change. Lower-income households continued to report slightly higher perceived inflation and short-term expectations than higher-income groups, a pattern seen since 2023, though trends across income levels remain broadly aligned. Younger consumers reported lower inflation expectations than older age groups. Beyond prices, households became more cautious about the outlook: expectations for spending growth declined and views on economic growth turned more negative. At the same time, expectations for unemployment eased slightly, while forecasts for house price growth and mortgage rates over the next year fell.

Median consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone edged up to 2.8% in October 2025 from 2.7% in September. Expectations for inflation three years ahead were unchanged at 2.5%, as were inflation expectations for five years ahead, which remained steady at 2.2%. Also, uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged, with younger respondents (aged 18-34) continuing to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70). Meanwhile, consumers’ nominal income growth expectations increased to 1.2% from 1.1%. Expected nominal spending growth was also steady at 3.5%. In addition, economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became less negative (-1.1% vs -1.2%). Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11% from 10.7%. Finally, consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.5% over the next 12 months, unchanged from September.