China Imports Climb Above Forecasts

China’s imports jumped 41.6% year-on-year to $307.05 billion in October 2026, exceeding market expectations of a 32% increase and accelerating from a 31.0% rise in September. It marked the strongest annual growth since May 2021. Considering the first ten months of the year, imports rose 29.0% to $2.74 trillion. By value, cumulative imports of high-tech products surged 50.8%, while electrical and mechanical products increased 41.0%. Purchases of automatic data-processing equipment and parts more than doubled, rising 136.7%, while integrated circuit imports climbed 65.1%. Imports of copper ore and concentrates rose 28.4%, coal 26.8%, unwrought copper and copper products 31.1%, and crude oil 4.5%. Among major suppliers, imports from ASEAN rose 28.1%, followed by South Korea (+79.1%), Taiwan (+29.2%), the European Union (+4.6%), Japan (+26.1%), Australia (+40.9%) and Russia (+31.5%).

China’s imports rose 31.0% year-on-year to a record $313.66 billion in September 2026, accelerating from a 28.2% gain in the previous month and exceeding market expectations of 24.5%. It was the strongest annual increase since June, supported by seasonal restocking ahead of the major October Golden Week break, strong demand for AI-related hardware, and higher international oil and commodity prices. Iron ore purchases rose 1.2% from August, driven by pre-holiday replenishment. In the first nine months of 2026, imports grew 27.5% yoy to $2.43 trillion. However, analysts cautioned that the import surge does not necessarily signal stronger domestic consumption. Much of the increase reflects purchases of industrial raw materials, minerals, and electronic components used in manufacturing goods for export. This suggests that import growth is being driven largely by robust factory activity and global technology demand, rather than a broad-based recovery in Chinese household spending.

China’s imports rose 28.2% year-on-year to $282.36 billion in August 2026, slightly below the 30% forecast but accelerating from July’s 27.6% increase, as strong commodity demand and the global AI infrastructure buildout boosted trade across Asia. Crude oil imports rose 6.2% from July to 37.9 million tons, while natural gas imports dipped as war-driven price increases weighed on seaborne shipments. Coal imports remained elevated as the Shanxi mine disaster continued to constrain domestic production. Iron ore imports rose 3.1% year-on-year, while copper concentrate and refined metal purchases fell around 10% amid tight global markets. Soybean imports slipped 1.1% as tariffs and strained US-China ties limited demand for US cargoes. Imports from major Asian trading partners surged, rising 108.1% from South Korea, 41.5% from Taiwan, 20.0% from Japan and 35.0% from ASEAN economies. Purchases from Australia and the US rose 44.6% and 17.8%, respectively. Imports from the EU edged up 0.7%.