China Import Growth Slows from Five-Year High

China’s imports rose 31.0% year-on-year to a record $313.66 billion in September 2026, accelerating from a 28.2% gain in the previous month and exceeding market expectations of 24.5%. It was the strongest annual increase since June, supported by seasonal restocking ahead of the major October Golden Week break, strong demand for AI-related hardware, and higher international oil and commodity prices. Iron ore purchases rose 1.2% from August, driven by pre-holiday replenishment. In the first nine months of 2026, imports grew 27.5% yoy to $2.43 trillion. However, analysts cautioned that the import surge does not necessarily signal stronger domestic consumption. Much of the increase reflects purchases of industrial raw materials, minerals, and electronic components used in manufacturing goods for export. This suggests that import growth is being driven largely by robust factory activity and global technology demand, rather than a broad-based recovery in Chinese household spending.

China’s imports rose 28.2% year-on-year to $282.36 billion in August 2026, slightly below the 30% forecast but accelerating from July’s 27.6% increase, as strong commodity demand and the global AI infrastructure buildout boosted trade across Asia. Crude oil imports rose 6.2% from July to 37.9 million tons, while natural gas imports dipped as war-driven price increases weighed on seaborne shipments. Coal imports remained elevated as the Shanxi mine disaster continued to constrain domestic production. Iron ore imports rose 3.1% year-on-year, while copper concentrate and refined metal purchases fell around 10% amid tight global markets. Soybean imports slipped 1.1% as tariffs and strained US-China ties limited demand for US cargoes. Imports from major Asian trading partners surged, rising 108.1% from South Korea, 41.5% from Taiwan, 20.0% from Japan and 35.0% from ASEAN economies. Purchases from Australia and the US rose 44.6% and 17.8%, respectively. Imports from the EU edged up 0.7%.

China's imports rose 27.5% year-on-year to USD 285.35 billion in July 2026, broadly in line with market forecasts of 27.9%. The pace eased from June’s 36% surge, the strongest since June 2021, signaling softer domestic demand amid weather and logistics disruptions. At a late-July policy meeting, authorities pledged faster fiscal rollout and timely monetary easing but stopped short of concrete steps to spur household consumption. The latest figures also coincided with renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, as both sides exchanged retaliatory measures ahead of September’s summit. By source, imports increased from South Korea (97.8%), Taiwan (36.6%), Australia (36.8%), ASEAN (36.0%), Japan (29.3%), and the U.S. (15.3%), but slipped from the EU (-1.4%). For January–July, imports grew 26.7% to USD 1.83 trillion. Iron ore imports rose 5.9% during the period, while purchases of natural gas fell 3% and those of crude oil dropped 13.2%.