China Import Growth at Over 4-Year High

China’s imports surged 27.8% yoy to a record peak of USD 511.3 billion in March 2026, easily exceeding market expectations of 11.1% and accelerating from an upwardly revised 19.8% growth in the January-February period. It was the strongest pace of purchases since November 2021, reflecting efforts to secure resources despite elevated costs amid the ongoing Iran war, which has heightened supply uncertainty. Purchases of iron ore climbed 11.5% yoy in March, due to higher shipments from Australia and seasonal restocking to anticipate new demand. For the first three months of the year, imports jumped 22.7% to USD 2.64 trillion, boosted by higher purchases from Japan (26.8%), Hong Kong (323.2%), South Korea (40.6%), Taiwan (14.5%), the EU (7.6%), and ASEAN (12.1%). In contrast, purchases from the U.S. fell 19.7%. Import values rose for rare earths (159.9%), copper ore (42.0%), unwrought copper (12.2%), and grains (7.6%). Conversely, imports dropped for coal (-8.3%) and crude oil (-7.1%).

China’s imports soared 19.8% yoy to USD 442.96 billion in the first two months of 2026, far above market expectations of 6.3% and after a 5.7% increase in the prior month. It was the strongest pace of purchases since early 2022, boosted by solid domestic demand during the festive season. Imports grew from Japan (26.5%), Hong Kong (322.9%), South Korea (35.8%), Taiwan (19.2%), ASEAN (12.9%), and the EU (11.7%), but fell from the U.S. (-26.7%). Crude oil imports jumped 15.8% to 96.93 million metric tons, as refiners kept throughput high and boosted stockpiles. Imports of copper concentrates and ores rose 4.9% to 4.93 million tons, while coal purchases added 1.5% to 77.22 million metric tons. In contrast, arrivals of unwrought copper fell 16.1% to 700,000 tons. Natural gas imports dropped 1.1% to 20.02 million tons. This year, imports are expected to grow modestly, helped by policy support aimed at boosting consumption, though property weakness and trade tensions may cap growth.

China’s imports rose 5.7% yoy to the highest in nearly four years of USD 243.64 billion in December 2025, picking up from a 1.9% gain in the previous month and easily surpassing market forecasts of 0.9%. It was the seventh straight monthly increase and the fastest pace since September, underscoring resilient year-end demand amid Beijing’s policy support and pre-Lunar New Year restocking. For 2025 as a whole, imports stalled at USD 2.58 trillion, with stronger demand from Japan (5.5%), Hong Kong (72.6%), Taiwan (6.0%), South Korea (3.1%), and India (9.7%) offsetting declines from the U.S. (-14.6%), ASEAN (-1.6%), the EU (-0.4%), and Russia (-3.9%). By product, import values rose for automatic data equipment (18.2%), high-tech goods (9.3%), and integrated circuits (10.1%), but fell for refined oil (-18.2%), natural gas (-13.0%), steel (-10.7%), and coal & lignite (-30.6%). Purchases in 2026 are expected to remain modest, hinging on domestic demand, policy support, and global trade ties.