China 10Y Yield Rebounds from 2025 Low

2026-10-19 02:41 By Czyrill Jean Coloma 1 min. read

China’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 1.66% on Monday, rebounding from a more than one-year low in the previous session even as key economic data pointed to a recovery in growth momentum.

China’s economy expanded 4.5% year-on-year in Q3 2026, accelerating from Q2’s three-year low of 4.3% and above market forecasts of 4.4%.

Growth for the first nine months reached 4.6%, keeping the economy on track to meet the government’s full-year target of 4.5%-5%.

Meanwhile, industrial output accelerated to 5.5% in September from 5.2% in August, while retail sales picked up to 1.1% from 0.4%.

The surveyed urban unemployment rate also edged down to 5.2% from August’s five-month high of 5.3%.

Investors will look to remarks from China’s top financial regulators at the Financial Street Forum in Beijing later today for fresh policy signals to support the economy, amid speculation about a potential shift in the policy rate benchmark from the current seven-day rate to an overnight rate.



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China 10Y Yield Rebounds from 2025 Low
China’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 1.66% on Monday, rebounding from a more than one-year low in the previous session even as key economic data pointed to a recovery in growth momentum. China’s economy expanded 4.5% year-on-year in Q3 2026, accelerating from Q2’s three-year low of 4.3% and above market forecasts of 4.4%. Growth for the first nine months reached 4.6%, keeping the economy on track to meet the government’s full-year target of 4.5%-5%. Meanwhile, industrial output accelerated to 5.5% in September from 5.2% in August, while retail sales picked up to 1.1% from 0.4%. The surveyed urban unemployment rate also edged down to 5.2% from August’s five-month high of 5.3%. Investors will look to remarks from China’s top financial regulators at the Financial Street Forum in Beijing later today for fresh policy signals to support the economy, amid speculation about a potential shift in the policy rate benchmark from the current seven-day rate to an overnight rate.
2026-10-19
China 10Y Yield Hovers Near 2025 Low
China’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.66% on Friday, hovering near its lowest level since June 2025, as a strengthening yuan and a lackluster economy bolstered demand for Chinese sovereign debt. The yield has declined 18 basis points since the end of December, while Chinese bonds have delivered nearly 10% returns over the past 12 months for dollar-based investors. Chinese bonds have also benefited from the country’s relative insulation from rising oil prices, supported by substantial strategic reserves and the continued shift toward electrified transport. Beijing’s efforts to attract more foreign investors to its domestic bond market are providing another source of support as China seeks to expand the yuan’s international role. The rally has widened the yield gap between Chinese and US government bonds to a record this month, with China’s 10-year yield at 1.67%, 352 basis points below that of comparable-maturity US Treasuries.
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China 10Y Yield Hits Fresh 2025 Low
China’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.67% on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level since June 2025 as strong export growth reinforced the country’s external outlook. China’s trade surplus widened to $133.53 billion in September 2026 from $88.72 billion a year earlier, marking its largest surplus since January 2025. Exports surged 36.3% year-on-year to a record $447.18 billion, while imports rose 31.0% to an all-time high of $313.66 billion. Meanwhile, investors weighed a continued recovery in consumer prices against intensifying cost pressures. Annual inflation edged up to 0.9% in September from 0.8% in August, reaching a three-month high. Producer price inflation accelerated to 5.0% from 3.8%, its strongest pace since June 2022. Renewed hostilities in the Middle East and risks to global oil supplies have pushed up input costs, squeezing corporate margins as businesses struggle to pass higher expenses on to consumers.
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