China 10Y Yield Falls on Stimulus Bets

2026-07-15 02:49 By Czyrill Jean Coloma 1 min. read

China’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.73% on Wednesday, reaching its lowest level in more than two weeks as investors increased expectations on further policy support to shore up economic growth.

China’s economy expanded 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, marking the weakest pace since Q4 2022 and undershooting Beijing’s 2026 growth target range of 4.5%–5.0%.

Moreover, fixed-asset investment slumped 5.7% in the first half of the year, worse than both market expectations and the January–May decline.

The broader economic slowdown is expected to be a key focus at the Politburo meeting later this month, where policymakers may consider stepping up fiscal support, including accelerating public spending and infrastructure investment.

However, signs of resilience still emerged as industrial production accelerated to a three-month high of 5.3% in June, retail sales unexpectedly rebounded to 1%, and the urban unemployment rate eased to a one-year low of 5.0%.



News Stream
China 10Y Yield Falls on Stimulus Bets
China’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.73% on Wednesday, reaching its lowest level in more than two weeks as investors increased expectations on further policy support to shore up economic growth. China’s economy expanded 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, marking the weakest pace since Q4 2022 and undershooting Beijing’s 2026 growth target range of 4.5%–5.0%. Moreover, fixed-asset investment slumped 5.7% in the first half of the year, worse than both market expectations and the January–May decline. The broader economic slowdown is expected to be a key focus at the Politburo meeting later this month, where policymakers may consider stepping up fiscal support, including accelerating public spending and infrastructure investment. However, signs of resilience still emerged as industrial production accelerated to a three-month high of 5.3% in June, retail sales unexpectedly rebounded to 1%, and the urban unemployment rate eased to a one-year low of 5.0%.
2026-07-15
China 10Y Yield Rises Amid Strong Trade Data
China's 10-year government bond yield rose toward 1.74% on Tuesday, rebounding from two-week lows as investors weighed stronger-than-expected trade data against signs of slowing economic growth ahead of Q2 GDP figures. Exports surged 27% year-on-year to a record USD 412.4 billion, while imports climbed 36% to an all-time high of USD 286.8 billion, both comfortably exceeding market expectations. As a result, the trade surplus widened to USD 125.6 billion. Robust global demand for AI-related products and firm semiconductor prices continued to support China's export sector, partly offsetting weakness in the domestic economy. Meanwhile, China's economy is expected to grow 4.5% year-on-year in the second quarter on Wednesday, slowing from 5.0% in the first quarter and placing growth near the lower end of Beijing's 2026 target range of 4.5%–5%, dragged down by weak consumer spending, a prolonged property slump, and subdued private investment.
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China 10Y Yield Hits 2-Week Low
China's 10-year government bond yield traded around 1.73% on Monday, hitting its lowest level in two weeks as investors responded to the People's Bank of China's reaffirmation of its accommodative monetary policy stance. The central bank pledged to maintain appropriately supportive policy settings and strengthen financial backing for domestic consumption, while acknowledging persistent imbalances between robust supply and relatively weak demand. Recent data showed that annual consumer inflation eased to a three-month low of 1% in June from 1.2% in May, while producer inflation rose to 4.1% from 3.9%, marking its fastest pace since July 2022. The latest figures highlighted the continued divergence between consumer and factory-gate price trends. Nevertheless, the PBOC has kept key interest rates and reserve requirement ratios unchanged, focusing instead on refining its policy framework and improving monetary policy transmission.
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