China 10Y Yield Hits 6-Week Low

China’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.78% on Tuesday, marking a third straight session of declines and hitting a six-week low, following weaker-than-expected trade data. Export growth slowed markedly to a five-month low of 2.5% year-on-year, reaching USD 321.03 billion, while imports surged 27.8% to a record high of USD 511.3 billion, marking the strongest pace of growth since November 2021. This resulted in the trade surplus narrowing sharply to a more than one-year low of USD 51.13 billion in March 2026 from USD 101.93 billion a year earlier and was well below expectations of USD 112 billion. Sentiment was also influenced by renewed diplomatic signals between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump said Tehran had sought a potential deal, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled openness to talks if they remain consistent with international law. The remarks followed earlier failed negotiations and the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

China 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased to 1.79%, the lowest since March 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, China 10Y Bond Yield lost 3.10 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 15.40 basis points.

China’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.80% on Monday, hitting its lowest level in over a month as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets following failed US–Iran peace talks. The negotiations ended without a breakthrough, while President Trump announced a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, raising further fears of global energy disruptions. Trump also warned that countries, including China, could face tariffs of up to 50% if they support Iran militarily, though Beijing denied any involvement. Amid the evolving Middle East conflict, Chinese assets such as bonds have emerged as relative safe havens, supported by energy resilience, policy support, limited exposure to geopolitical tensions, and signs of improving domestic momentum, as seen in the exit from producer deflation that has persisted since September 2022. The 10-year yield has risen by only about 3 bps through Friday, compared with gains of at least 40 bps in US and European peers.