China Targets 4.5%–5% Growth in 2026, Maintains Fiscal Support

2026-03-05 01:50 By Farida Husna 1 min. read

China set its 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%–5%, slightly adjusting from the “around 5%” goal over the past three years.

Speaking at the opening of the annual legislative session on Thursday, Premier Li Qiang said the government aims to sustain momentum after the economy met its 2025 target, supported by resilient exports despite trade tensions with the U.S.

To underpin growth, Beijing will keep the fiscal deficit at 4.0% of GDP and set a consumer inflation target of around 2.0%, signaling efforts to ward off deflation after prices were flat last year amid weak demand.

Stabilizing employment remains a priority, with plans to create 12 million urban jobs and cap the unemployment rate at 5.5%, unchanged from 2025.

In addition, local governments will be allowed to issue CNY 4.4 trillion in special-purpose bonds to fund investment projects.

At the same time, CNY 1.3 trillion of ultralong treasury bonds will also be issued, matching last year’s quota to reinforce fiscal support.



News Stream
China Targets 4.5%–5% Growth in 2026, Maintains Fiscal Support
China set its 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%–5%, slightly adjusting from the “around 5%” goal over the past three years. Speaking at the opening of the annual legislative session on Thursday, Premier Li Qiang said the government aims to sustain momentum after the economy met its 2025 target, supported by resilient exports despite trade tensions with the U.S. To underpin growth, Beijing will keep the fiscal deficit at 4.0% of GDP and set a consumer inflation target of around 2.0%, signaling efforts to ward off deflation after prices were flat last year amid weak demand. Stabilizing employment remains a priority, with plans to create 12 million urban jobs and cap the unemployment rate at 5.5%, unchanged from 2025. In addition, local governments will be allowed to issue CNY 4.4 trillion in special-purpose bonds to fund investment projects. At the same time, CNY 1.3 trillion of ultralong treasury bonds will also be issued, matching last year’s quota to reinforce fiscal support.
2026-03-05
IMF Holds China 2026 Growth Outlook, Flags Property Risks
The International Monetary Fund kept its 2026 growth forecast for China unchanged at 4.5%, while warning that weak domestic demand and a slowing global economy pose downside risks. In its annual 2025 review released on Wednesday, the global lender said China’s economy expanded 5% in 2025, meeting Beijing’s official target, though the GDP deflator continued to decline, signaling persistent price pressures. The IMF described a “deeper-than-expected” downturn in the property sector as the main domestic risk, while renewed trade tensions represent the key external threat. It also called on policymakers to scale back industry support by cutting subsidies from 4% of GDP to 2%, restructure the debt of unsustainable local government financing vehicles, and take steps to curb future debt accumulation.
2026-02-19
China Hits 5% Growth Target in 2025
The Chinese economy grew by 5% in 2025, the same pace as last year and meeting the government’s target. Growth was supported by strong exports, as companies diversified shipments to Europe and Latin America to offset weak domestic consumption and US tariffs. Total goods trade reached RMB 45.47 trillion, with exports up 6.1% and imports 0.5%. Private firms accounted for 57.3% of trade. The primary sector expanded 3.9%, the secondary sector 4.5%, while the services sector led growth at 5.4%, with IT & software (+11.1%) and leasing & business services (+10.3%) performing particularly strongly. Industrial value-added rose 5.9%, driven by equipment (+9.2%) and high-tech manufacturing (+9.4%). Retail sales grew 3.7% (online +8.6%), but fixed-asset investment fell 3.8% amid overcapacity and cautious household spending. Analysts expect growth of around 5% in 2026, though weak domestic demand could constrain upside.
2026-01-19