China Fixed Investment Growth Below Forecasts

China’s fixed-asset investment rose by 1.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, falling short of market expectations for a 1.9% increase. The latest reading was slightly weaker than the 1.8% rise in the first two months. Property investment declined further, falling by 11.2% (compared with an 11.1% drop in January–February), partly offsetting gains in infrastructure (8.9%) and manufacturing (4.1%) investment. Among industries, investment in the primary sector climbed by 15.9% and the secondary sector grew by 5.8%, while investment in the tertiary sector dropped by 1.0%. Excluding the property sector, fixed-asset investment went up by 4.8% in the January–March period. On a monthly basis, fixed-asset investment increased by 0.52% in March, slowing from a 0.99% rise in February.

China’s fixed-asset investment increased by 1.8% in the January-February 2026 period, defying market expectations of a 0.4% fall. This followed a 3.8% drop in 2025, which marked the first annual decline since 1989 amid a sharp property downturn and tighter restrictions on local government borrowing. In the first two months of the year, infrastructure investment grew by 11.4% and manufacturing investment rose by 3.1%, more than offsetting an 11.1% drop in property investment. By industry, investment in the primary industry surged by 17.4% and the secondary industry increased by 5.4%, while investment in the tertiary industry decreased by 0.4%. Excluding the property sector, fixed-asset investment climbed by 5.2% in the January-February period. On a monthly basis, fixed-asset investment rose by 0.4% in February, marking the second consecutive month of growth, although slowing from a 1.3% increase in January.

China’s fixed-asset investment fell by 3.8% in 2025, worse than market forecasts of a 3% drop. This marked the first annual decline since 1989, dragged mainly by a sharp fall in property investment (-17.2%). Infrastructure investment also dropped by 2.2%, while manufacturing investment saw a modest increase of 0.6%. By industry, investment in the primary industry rose by 2.3% and the secondary industry went up by 2.5%, whereas investment in the tertiary industry contracted by 7.4%. Excluding the property sector, fixed-asset investment was down by 0.5% in 2025. On a monthly basis, fixed-asset investment dropped by 1.1% in December, following a 0.4% fall in November.