Offshore Yuan Extends Fall

The offshore yuan depreciated to around 6.80 per dollar on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session and hitting a one-week low as investors weighed the latest outlook for China's economy. The World Bank projected China's economic growth to slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, citing a prolonged property market downturn and subdued consumer spending. Meanwhile, the government also set its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%–5.0%, the lowest since 1991 and the first downward revision since 2023, after maintaining a target of around 5% over the previous three years. Separately, the PBoC announced measures to strengthen Hong Kong's role as an offshore yuan hub. These include more than doubling the RMB Business Facility to 500 billion yuan, raising the annual Southbound Bond Connect quota to 800 billion yuan from 500 billion yuan, and pledging support for more yuan-denominated commodity products following the launch of a new gold clearing system in Hong Kong backed by major banks.

The offshore yuan fell to around 6.78 per dollar on Monday as investors cautiously awaited key inflation data. Consumer inflation is expected to hold steady at 1.2% in June 2026, while producer price inflation is forecast to accelerate slightly to 4.1% from 3.9%. A private survey showed that the Manufacturing PMI eased to a three-month low of 51.7 in June from 51.8 in May. The reading followed stronger-than-expected official data showing the Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.3 in June from 50.0 in May, above forecasts of 50.1. Sentiment was also weighed down by a cautious assessment from Goldman Sachs, which noted a more guarded tone among local clients regarding China's near-term growth outlook, alongside concerns over weak consumer confidence, persistent labor market pressures, and the negative wealth effects of the prolonged property downturn. Meanwhile, the EU's trade chief and China's commerce minister began talks in Brussels aimed at easing trade tensions.

The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.79 per dollar in June, reversing two consecutive months of gains as a stronger US dollar and a series of softer-than-expected daily fixings from the People's Bank of China weighed on the currency. The dollar strengthened as investors priced in higher-for-longer US interest rates, while ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East boosted demand for the currency's safe-haven appeal. Additional pressure came from the PBoC's persistent setting of weaker-than-anticipated reference rates, reinforcing expectations that authorities are comfortable with a gradual depreciation of the yuan. On the economic front, manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.3 from 50.0, exceeding market expectations of 50.1, supported by resilient demand for high-tech exports that helped offset trade disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.2 from 50.1, beating forecasts of 49.9 and signaling continued stabilization in the sector.