Offshore Yuan Rebounds on Globalization Push

The offshore yuan slid to around 6.68 per dollar on Wednesday, extending losses for a second consecutive session to a two-week low as investors continued to weigh Beijing’s aggressive move to curb the currency’s sharp rally. The central bank decided to raise the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio to 6% from 4%, with investors viewing the policy adjustment as one of the central bank's most explicit interventions to date aimed at cooling the yuan's prolonged rally. The currency has appreciated roughly 5% year-to-date, supported by resilient export demand. Reinforcing the downward momentum, the PBOC set Wednesday’s daily midpoint fixing at 6.7180 per dollar, hitting its weakest setting since October 23 and 369 pips weaker than Reuters' expectations of 6.6811 per dollar. Meanwhile, China's Composite PMI fell to a three-month low of 52.0 in October from 52.4 in September, as the Services PMI declined to 50.8 from 51.6 and the Manufacturing PMI edged down to 52.0 from 52.1.

The offshore yuan slid to around 6.66 per dollar on Tuesday, retreating from a more than four-year high in the previous session after the People’s Bank of China moved to curb its rapid appreciation by raising the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio. The central bank announced a 2-percentage-point increase in the ratio to 6% from 4%, effective November 15. The move aims to drain foreign currency liquidity from the onshore interbank market, making it more costly for financial institutions to hold dollars and discouraging commercial lenders from selling them, thereby slowing the yuan’s recent gains. The yuan’s rally has been underpinned by robust export growth, with shipments surging 36.3% year-on-year to USD 447.18 billion in September 2026, marking the fastest annual increase in seven months. Strong global demand for electronics and semiconductors continued to support exports, helping the currency appreciate around 5% so far this year.

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.64 per dollar on Monday, extending its winning streak to a fifth consecutive session and reaching its strongest level since June 2022, after the People’s Bank of China announced a shift in its short-term monetary policy framework toward the overnight rate. Under the new framework, the central bank will introduce daily overnight reverse repo operations at a fixed rate of 1.25%, bringing the overnight rate closer to becoming its primary policy anchor and gradually replacing the long-standing seven-day benchmark. The newly disclosed 1.25% rate is below the existing 1.4% seven-day reverse repo rate and broadly in line with market expectations and prevailing borrowing costs. Meanwhile, weak official PMI data highlighted persistent economic headwinds. Manufacturing PMI fell to a three-month low of 49.3 in October 2026 from 50.1 in September. Non-manufacturing PMI also declined to 49.7 from 50.2, signaling a contraction for the sixth time in 2026.