China Manufacturing Unexpectedly Weakens

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October 2026 from 50.1 in September, missing market expectations of 50.0 and marking its lowest reading since July. The latest result pointed to subdued domestic demand as the boost from the Golden Week holiday waned, while overseas demand also softened despite continued resilience in AI-related trade. Both output (49.3 vs 50.1 in September) and export orders (48.7 vs 50.0) slipped into contraction, while new orders (49.4 vs 50.5) and purchasing activity (48.9 vs 51.0) declined for the first time in three months. At the same time, employment continued to shrink (48.4 vs 48.4), while delivery times were little changed (50.2 vs 50.1). On the price front, input cost inflation eased (56.8 vs 60.8), as did output price growth (51.7 vs. 54.0). Finally, business confidence dipped to a seven-month low (53.4 vs 53.8).

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September 2026 from 49.8 in August, in line with market expectations. It was the first expansion in factory activity since June, driven by continued growth in demand. Output growth accelerated to a nine-month high (51.7 vs 50.4 in August), while new orders continued to increase, though at a slightly slower pace (50.5 vs 50.6). Meanwhile, employment continued to decline (48.4 vs 48.7). Raw material inventories continued to decline (48.2 vs. 48.1), while supplier delivery times were steady at 50.1. Meanwhile, foreign orders continued to decline (49.2 vs. 48.6), while purchasing activity rose at a faster pace (51.0 vs 50.5). Price pressures intensified, with both input costs (60.8 vs 56.6) and output prices (54.0 vs 50.4) accelerating to five-month highs. Finally, business sentiment remained at a five-month low (53.8), suggesting that firms remained cautious about the near-term outlook

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August 2026 from 49.2 in July, beating market expectations of 49.7. The reading marked a second consecutive month of contraction, although the pace eased amid a recovery in demand. Output (50.4 vs. 49.9 in July) and new orders (50.6 vs. 48.5) both returned to expansionary territory, while employment remained in contraction, with the sub-index falling to 48.7 from 49.0. Raw material inventories also continued to decline (48.1 vs. 48.3), while supplier delivery times shortened for the first time in seven months (50.1 vs. 49.5). Price pressures intensified, with input costs rising at their fastest pace in three months (56.6 vs. 53.2). Output prices also returned to growth (50.4 vs. 47.8) after declining in July. Meanwhile, business sentiment weakened to a five-month low of 53.8, down from 54.1, suggesting that firms remained cautious about the near-term outlook.