Canada Small Business Confidence Rises in June

Canada's CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, rose to 49.6 in June 2026 from a 46.3 in May. The short-term optimism index, based on the 3-month outlook, declined to 46.1 from 48.1 in the prior month. Sentiment weakened across most sectors, namely retail (48.5 vs 53.6), transportation and utilities (45.3 vs 46.7), agriculture (43 vs 45.5) and accommodation and food services (38.8 vs 47.3), with most also recording short-term declines. The average price increase edged down to 3% from 3.1%, while average wages moderated to 2.3% from 2.4%. Although staffing intentions improved, labor market sentiment remained weak, with more firms planning to lay-off (13% vs 16% in May) than hire (12% vs 14%). Low demand remained the most commonly cited supply-side constraint, reported by 53% of firms. On the cost side, fuel prices continued to be the dominant constraint on input supply.

Canada's CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, fell sharply to 46.3 in May 2026 from a downwardly revised 58.0 in April, marking the lowest reading in a year. The short-term optimism index, based on the 3-month outlook, also declined by roughly 7 points to 47.9, reflecting weaker sentiment. The decline in long-term expectations was broad-based across sectors, with some of the steepest drops recorded in retail (53.4 vs. 63.5), health and education (51.7 vs. 61.5), hospitality (47.3 vs. 57.1), and agriculture (44.6 vs. 53.3). Meanwhile, the average price increase eased to 3.1% from 3.2% in March, although remaining elevated, while the average wage growth remained unchanged at 2.4%. Full-time hiring intentions remain weak, with more firms planning to cut staff (16%) than expand their workforce (14%).

Canada's CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, increased to 58.5 in April 2026, after falling sharply to a downwardly revised 55.7 in March. The short-term optimism index, based on the 3-month outlook, also posted a modest gain, rising by about 1 point to 55.4. Expectations for the next 12 months increased mostly in retail (63.7 vs 62.7), info, arts and recreation (57.8 vs 55.7), personal services (61.4 vs 60.3) and construction (57.3 vs 50). In contrast, a decline was seen mostly in transportation and warehousing (52.9 vs 53.8), professional and business services (57.4 vs 59.6) and hospitality (57.1 vs 58.2). Meanwhile, the average price increase jumped up to 3.2% in April, marking the highest monthly change since the tariff war last March. The average wage increase increased slightly to 2.4%, the first notable shift after roughly 12 months of readings clustered around the 2.2% mark.